Welcome to the Experian Thought Leadership Hub

The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report provides a sharp look at how recent economic shifts are impacting small businesses across the U.S., with a special focus on supply chains, specifically the transportation industry, which is experiencing fallout from changing trade policies. Are industry-specific models effective in mitigating risk?

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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While the US labor market remains on decent footing, it has become increasingly challenging to land a job. For lenders, current dynamics suggest there could be greater-than-expected stress in higher-income households and in the Prime credit segments of the market if layoffs increase and job opportunities for these workers remain scarce. Insights include:

• Businesses are scaling back on hiring due to economic uncertainty and AI uptake
• Employment in both tech-centric and broader professional and business services has been stagnant
• Higher-educated/white-collar workers feeling the strain of a challenging job market

As we progress through 2025, economic conditions continue to shift as uncertainty climbs. Discover our experts' insights on how they anticipate the economic landscape to evolve throughout 2025, as they delve into the latest trends and forecasts.

The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals a complex but fascinating picture of the U.S. economy and the small business landscape. According to Javier Rodriquez-Paiva’s research, while headline indicators suggest moderation, like slowing inflation and a steady unemployment rate, beneath the surface, disparities in recovery and credit performance continue to deepen.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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If we go into a recession, what does it mean for lending activity? What does it mean for delinquency? As banks, credit unions and fintechs grapple with these questions, sometimes it helps to look to the past for guidance.

In this latest Macro Moment, take a quick look back at prior recessions and their impact on unemployment, delinquency, and loan growth. Key insights include:

• In the last five downturns, unemployment peaked an average of three quarters after the recession ended.
  
• In the last four recessions, 30+ DPD delinquency on all loans increased by an average 1.6 percentage points.
  
• In the prior five recessions, quarterly credit growth slowed from 1.9% in the two years in the lead up to recession to -0.1% in the year following a recession.

Download our report for insights into the major financial milestones your consumers are facing including:

• Gen Z’s journey to independently acquire their first credit products
  
• Millennials’ quest to become first-time homebuyers
  
• Baby Boomers and older Gen X reaching retirement

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁!

While job satisfaction remains high ⭐, 𝟭 𝗶𝗻 𝟰 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 ⚠️.

Also, union membership is at a historic low—𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟵.𝟵%—but public support is rising, especially among younger workers. These dynamics are reshaping employer-employee relationships, with big implications for small businesses.

𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀:

✔️ Inflation cooled to 2.8%

✔️ 228K jobs added in March

✔️ Unemployment rose to 4.2%

✔️ Consumer sentiment dipped to its lowest since 2022

Small businesses continue to show resilience, with optimism inching up and business starts outpacing pre-pandemic levels.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

With the recent Fed announcement and fewer interest rate cuts on the horizon, it’s time to posture your organization more defensively. Where to start? A portfolio management activity that is often overlooked is the accuracy behind classifying fraud and credit risk.

Join our experts for an insightful webinar where they’ll review:

• The state of the Credit Card industry
• The value of performing lookback reviews – beyond accuracy
• Credit tools to help your portfolio management strategies

In our Q1 Lending Conditions Chartbook, we break down the latest economic trends and dive deep into credit conditions across products and regions.

Insights include:

• The labor market appears on decent footing but there are signs of slowing.
• Credit growth remains subdued and is running below its pre-pandemic average as financial institutions maintain tight lending standards and interest rates remain elevated.
• Looking at origination activity, there has been a meaningful pickup among fintechs and in unsecured personal loans.