Macroeconomic forecasting and regional trends - May 2025

Read our first-ever State of Energy and Utilities Report examining the forces shaping the industry this year.

• Rising arrearages and affordability pressures
• Expanding digital channels and identity-related fraud exposure
• AI-driven demand, data center growth and grid resiliency challenges
• Data-driven strategies to reduce risk and strengthen customer trust

After outperforming expectations in 2025, the U.S. economy heads into 2026 with momentum - and meaningful risks. This Macro Moment explores the forces shaping the year ahead, from AI-driven growth and consumer resilience to evolving credit conditions and labor market uncertainty, helping leaders prepare for what’s next. Key takeaways include:

• The economic signals that mattered most in 2025 - and why they still matter
  
• How AI, consumers, and credit conditions are shaping 2026
  
• Where risks remain and what to watch in the labor market

As the credit card landscape evolves, understanding how consumers and businesses are adapting has never been more important.

Our second annual State of Credit Cards Report provides a timely update on key market dynamics and dives into an often-overlooked segment within credit card portfolios: business accounts.

Key takeaways:

• 30+ DPD delinquency rates remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2025.
• Fintechs continue to gain share in the credit card market, posting a 71% YoY increase in account originations.
• Many businesses use consumer credit cards to support business-related activity, making this segment easy for lenders to overlook.

The Regional Economic Health Tracker examines consumer health across the four U.S. census regions. It highlights how regional dynamics, from data center growth to housing costs and credit conditions, are shaping household finances today.

• Regional income, spending, and cost-of-living trends
  
• Housing market performance and price changes
  
• Consumer stress and 30+ DPD balances by product