Report
Published April 25, 2025
Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
If we go into a recession, what does it mean for lending activity? What does it mean for delinquency? As banks, credit unions and fintechs grapple with these questions, sometimes it helps to look to the past for guidance.
In this latest Macro Moment, take a quick look back at prior recessions and their impact on unemployment, delinquency, and loan growth. Key insights include:
- In the last five downturns, unemployment peaked an average of three quarters after the recession ended.
- In the last four recessions, 30+ DPD delinquency on all loans increased by an average 1.6 percentage points.
- In the prior five recessions, quarterly credit growth slowed from 1.9% in the two years in the lead up to recession to -0.1% in the year following a recession.
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Report
Regional Economic Health Tracker
The Regional Economic Health Tracker examines consumer health across the four U.S. census regions. It highlights how regional dynamics, from data center growth to housing costs and credit conditions, are shaping household finances today.
- Regional income, spending, and cost-of-living trends
- Housing market performance and price changes
- Consumer stress and 30+ DPD balances by product
White Paper
Unlocking credit potential: the financial behavior and creditworthiness of ITIN holders
ITIN holders are active, responsible participants in the U.S. credit economy — yet many remain overlooked by traditional lending models.
Our white paper takes a closer look at this financially active and resilient population, revealing key insights into their credit performance and long-term growth potential.
Some findings include:
- Most ITIN holders are concentrated in states that represent a large share of the U.S. economy: California, Texas and New York.
- 76.9% of ITIN holders remained current on trades after 12 months, a rate 15% higher than SSN consumers.
- ITIN holders maintain a lower debt-to-income ratio (25%) than SSN consumers.
Read the full white paper for more insights.
Tip Sheet
A companion piece to Bridging the credit divide: income, risk and inclusion in consumer finance
This summary outlines important research findings that help lenders drive a more inclusive environment for customers, while mitigating risk.
A few takeaways:
- Understanding the profiles of who’s more prone to exclusion informs risk management.
- Machine learning techniques can also be deployed to help detect economic interaction effects or shifts.
- Attributes like education level, occupation or rent/utilities payment history have predictive power in credit outcomes.
Report
2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report: Navigating Uncertainty, Unlocking Opportunity
Gain actionable insights from Experian’s 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report:
- Mortgage market shifts and evolving borrower behaviors
- Affordability pressures and what they mean for homeowners
- Home equity as a key growth lever for lenders
- Macroeconomic trends impacting housing demand and credit