Report
Published April 25, 2025
Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
If we go into a recession, what does it mean for lending activity? What does it mean for delinquency? As banks, credit unions and fintechs grapple with these questions, sometimes it helps to look to the past for guidance.
In this latest Macro Moment, take a quick look back at prior recessions and their impact on unemployment, delinquency, and loan growth. Key insights include:
- In the last five downturns, unemployment peaked an average of three quarters after the recession ended.
- In the last four recessions, 30+ DPD delinquency on all loans increased by an average 1.6 percentage points.
- In the prior five recessions, quarterly credit growth slowed from 1.9% in the two years in the lead up to recession to -0.1% in the year following a recession.
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Webinar
Macroeconomic Scenarios Forecast - May 2026
Economic uncertainty remains elevated amid geopolitical instability, but the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Explore Experian's latest base-case forecast and what it could mean for businesses planning ahead.
- GDP growth projected at 2.0% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027
- Inflation expected to rise to 3.5% in 2026 before easing to 2.1% in 2027
- Unemployment forecast to hold steady at 4.4% through 2027
Report
Energy Shock vs. Consumers
Consumers have powered the U.S. economy through repeated shocks, but new pressures are testing their resilience. As energy prices rise and economic conditions shift, the outlook is becoming more uncertain.
- Labor market strength is weakening
- Income and wage growth are slowing
- High equity exposure increases risk
Infographic
2026 H1 Alternative financial services trends snapshot: growth, risk and where it’s moving
Download the latest Alternative Financial Services Trend Report to reveal new insights on growth and risk, including:
- Loan volume is up 21% YoY across installment and single pay products
- Installment bad rates declined 6.8% YoY
- Returning borrowers grew 26.5% YoY in RTO/LTO
Webinar
Understanding the Consumer: Trends in Financial Behavior and Spending Patterns
Gain a clearer view of how consumers earn, spend, and manage their money in today’s evolving economic landscape. In this webinar, Experian experts break down the financial behaviors shaping demand, risk, and growth—using macroeconomic trends, credit data, and transaction-level cash flow insights.
- Key trends in spending, income stability, and cash flow
- What credit and cash flow signals reveal about your customers
- How to apply these insights to marketing, risk, and growth strategies