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While the US economy has so far avoided the worst-feared outcomes of higher tariffs, there remains significant uncertainty and concern over outlook, which is driving caution among lenders. In our just-released Q2 2025 Lending Conditions Chartbook, we break down the latest economic developments and do a deep dive into credit conditions across product segments, regions, and lender types. Key insights include:

• Unemployment remains low, but there are ongoing signs of softening in the labor market.
• Real incomes have improved somewhat after softening for most of 2024, which may continue to support consumer spending.
• The housing market continues to be constrained by high prices and interest rates, which are impacting affordability.

Economic uncertainty is often seen as a deterrent to growth, but for many Americans, it’s become the fuel for a fresh start. As inflation wavers and traditional employment structures shift, more individuals are stepping out of corporate roles to pursue business ownership. In this week’s Commercial Pulse Report, we take a closer look at what’s driving this wave of entrepreneurial activity.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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The 2025 U.S. rental market reflects broader economic conditions, shaped by shifting market forces and ongoing uncertainty. Landlords and property managers are navigating a complex landscape where understanding renter behavior, affordability challenges, and macroeconomic pressures is key to maintaining stable occupancy. By staying informed on these trends, they can better attract and retain long-term tenants.

Key Insights:

• Renter Financial Pressure: Renters across all demographics are facing rising debt and affordability issues, impacting their housing stability.
• Rent-to-Income Imbalance: Rent prices continue to rise faster than incomes, increasing the financial burden on tenants nationwide.
• Macroeconomic Impact: Factors like interest rates, unemployment, and housing development are reshaping rental market dynamics.
• Strategic Adaptation Needed: Landlords must adapt to evolving renter preferences and market conditions to ensure long-term success.

While the US labor market remains on decent footing, it has become increasingly challenging to land a job. For lenders, current dynamics suggest there could be greater-than-expected stress in higher-income households and in the Prime credit segments of the market if layoffs increase and job opportunities for these workers remain scarce. Insights include:

• Businesses are scaling back on hiring due to economic uncertainty and AI uptake
• Employment in both tech-centric and broader professional and business services has been stagnant
• Higher-educated/white-collar workers feeling the strain of a challenging job market

The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals a complex but fascinating picture of the U.S. economy and the small business landscape. According to Javier Rodriquez-Paiva’s research, while headline indicators suggest moderation, like slowing inflation and a steady unemployment rate, beneath the surface, disparities in recovery and credit performance continue to deepen.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

If we go into a recession, what does it mean for lending activity? What does it mean for delinquency? As banks, credit unions and fintechs grapple with these questions, sometimes it helps to look to the past for guidance.

In this latest Macro Moment, take a quick look back at prior recessions and their impact on unemployment, delinquency, and loan growth. Key insights include:

• In the last five downturns, unemployment peaked an average of three quarters after the recession ended.
  
• In the last four recessions, 30+ DPD delinquency on all loans increased by an average 1.6 percentage points.
  
• In the prior five recessions, quarterly credit growth slowed from 1.9% in the two years in the lead up to recession to -0.1% in the year following a recession.

Download our report for insights into the major financial milestones your consumers are facing including:

• Gen Z’s journey to independently acquire their first credit products
  
• Millennials’ quest to become first-time homebuyers
  
• Baby Boomers and older Gen X reaching retirement

In our Q1 Lending Conditions Chartbook, we break down the latest economic trends and dive deep into credit conditions across products and regions.

Insights include:

• The labor market appears on decent footing but there are signs of slowing.
• Credit growth remains subdued and is running below its pre-pandemic average as financial institutions maintain tight lending standards and interest rates remain elevated.
• Looking at origination activity, there has been a meaningful pickup among fintechs and in unsecured personal loans.

Explore state-level and industry level data that banks, credit unions and fintechs can leverage to track the downturn and be correctly positioned for the recovery in this monthly report.