Outstanding performance in the third quarter is a great headline focused on the resiliency of the American consumer. Business confidence and financials benefited from a consumer confidence boost as market conditions appeared to improve as inflation receded. Consumer spending remained elevated, supporting small business cashflow health, but a rising percentage of that consumer spend originated from leveraged consumer credit products. Creditors have been monitoring the rise in unsecured debt utilization and putting into action exposure limiting underwriting criteria.
Lenders are tightening underwriting criteria due to high delinquencies among consumers and small businesses amid inflation. People are revising their spending and investment plans. While technology companies thrive, sectors like logistics, utilities, and healthcare face challenges. Supply chain issues are easing, but reduced demand affects inventory orders, impacting trucking and logistics with lower tonnage and mileage. Consumers show resilience, bolstered by a strong job market, wage growth, and lower energy and food costs. However, dwindling savings and increased reliance on unsecured debt, along with the resumption of debt obligations like student loans, and ongoing inflation, put pressure on consumers. Recession fears are easing, but concerns for 2024 remain.
Q1 GDP grew by 1.1% annualized, following a 2.6% gain in Q4 2022. However, recent data's accuracy is affected by weather-induced consumer spending and unusual seasonal adjustments. Notably, Q1 GDP doesn't reflect the impact of tightened lending standards yet. The core of the economy, measured by real final sales to domestic purchasers, rose by a solid 2.9% annualized, driven by strong consumer spending concentrated in early Q1 and aided by significant cost-of-living payments. Inventory reduction subtracted 2.3ppts from Q1 GDP growth, and this trend is expected to persist as businesses draw from existing stockpiles to meet demand. The Oxford Economics US Business Cycle Indicator declined for two consecutive months, indicating weak Q1 performance. The indicator suggests feeble Q2 growth and a possible H2 2023 recession.
The fourth quarter boasted open commercial lending markets, inclusive of all tiers of credit risk, even as measured commercial delinquencies returned to pre-pandemic levels. An increasing number of commercial lenders are developing product and underwriting strategies to limit the expected exposure in a near term recession. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near term as hietened inflation lingers. Higher costs of goods and services will pressure spending behavior as affordability tightens and personal cashflows thin.
The US economy grew a buoyant 2.6% annualized in Q3, confirming Experian and Oxford Economics’ view that the economy was not in recession. Indeed, the economy created a robust 261k jobs in October, while the unemployment rate came in near a historically low of 3.7%. Higher borrowing costs will weigh on corporate profits, hiring, and business investment. The consumer will feel the effects of an increase in unemployment and a reduction in excess savings. Download the full report to learn more.
After a strong economic rebound in the wake of COVID-19, a more challenging environment and heightened recession worries are forcing small businesses to “hit the reset button”. Small business anxiety about elevated inflation and labor shortages persisted in Q2 2022, as small businesses held debt balances longer, while seeking additional credit in anticipation of a tighter lending environment.
Experian begins a new chapter with the release of the Q1 2022 Main Street Report through our collaboration with the leading economists at Oxford Economics. During Q1, small businesses kept average commercial loan balances healthy and stable. At the same time, moderate delinquency inched up but remained low overall as business and consumer travel returned to form, offering major tourist destinations a boost.
The fourth quarter of 2021 enhanced the pressure felt by small businesses as the largest wave of COVID-19 hit the US. In addition to the effects of pandemic outbreak of labor and consumer engagement, an inflationary surge, largest increase since 1982, coupled with pandemic-related supply-and-demand imbalances, weighed heavily on US small businesses along with a notable impact to consumer sentiment.
Although workers were getting raises in the currently tight job market, rapid price increases are eroding consumers’ earning power. Average wage earnings went up by 4.0% in Q4 ’21 vs. the previous year, yet a 7.5% increase in inflation results in a net decline in real earnings. Workers’ money is not going as far as it used to. Rising wages, however, put pressure on businesses’ payrolls who may be forced to pass those costs to consumers.
Small business credit performance was mixed in the third quarter as businesses dealt with the COVID-19 Delta variant. Early stage delinquency rates rose modestly while late state delinquency and bankruptcy rates fell decisively. With daily COVID cases falling, demand for goods and services should rise in coming quarters. Downside risks are concentrated on the supply side with businesses struggling to hire workers and dealing with supply chain stress.
Small businesses increased hiring for the holidays funded by credit while servicing their outstanding debts. The moderately delinquent balances for small businesses declined to 1.21 percent in the fourth quarter from 1.60 percent at the same time last year. Taxes are a rising issue for small businesses, but increasing concerns here did not dampen borrowing or hiring in the fourth quarter. The availability of credit has cushioned the blow of the pandemic for now and a third stimulus will help insulate small businesses from altered consumer spending patterns.
As some industries struggle to contain price increases and to survive in a post-pandemic world, others are thriving on the back of economic reopenings driving consumption. Reopenings and the release of pent-up demand for services is pushing up economic growth and powering an economic recovery that will be among the fastest in modern times.
Small businesses increased hiring for the holidays funded by credit while servicing their outstanding debts. The moderately delinquent balances for small businesses declined to 1.21 percent in the fourth quarter from 1.60 percent at the same time last year. Taxes are a rising issue for small businesses, but increasing concerns here did not dampen borrowing or hiring in the fourth quarter. The availability of credit has cushioned the blow of the pandemic for now and a third stimulus will help insulate small businesses from altered consumer spending patterns.
Leading economists from Moody's Analytics and experts from Experian provide a deep dive on the Q3 2020 Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report credit insights.Cristian DeRitis, Moody's Deputy Chief Economist provides an update on the impact of COVID-19 and an overview of macro-economic conditions impacting small business. Derrek Grunfelder-McCrank, Moody's Associate Economist provides a regional analysis of credit trends including business sectors that are performing well, and which ones are under pressure, and what's driving the trends. Brodie Oldham, Experian's Senior Director of Analytics Consultancy closes by sharing Experian's perspective on how small businesses are fairing.
In a fight for survival small businesses have turned to layoffs and borrowing as they attempt to reach the other side of COVID-19. Increasing borrowing is helping to mask rising late-stage delinquencies and bankruptcy. Layoffs and borrowing can only mask weakness for so long until a reckoning will arrive. A new round of government stimulus could mitigate this reckoning but doesn’t appear likely to arrive before year’s end. This will push more small businesses to again borrow for survival. When new borrowing is no longer a necessity delinquency and bankruptcies will rise.
Leading economists from Moody's Analytics and experts from Experian provide a deep dive on the Q2 2020 Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report credit insights.Cristian DeRitis, Moody's Deputy Chief Economist provides an update on the impact of COVID-19 and an overview of macro-economic conditions impacting small business. Derrek Grunfelder-McCrank, Moody's Associate Economist provides a regional analysis of credit trends including business sectors that are performing well, and which ones are under pressure, and what's driving the trends. Brodie Oldham, Experian's Senior Director of Analytics Consultancy closes by sharing Experian's perspective on how small businesses are fairing.
Small businesses have turned to borrowing to survive periods of prolonged slumping sales, in many cases from government programs offering loan forgiveness. This increased borrowing has masked rising delinquent balances, but such a solution is a short-term fix. Small businesses will need to find ways to generate revenue to keep their credit current. Defaults are expected to rise in coming quarters as forbearance programs expire and as customers are likely to change their priorities in the wake of COVID-19.
Leading economists from Moody's Analytics and experts from Experian provide a deep dive on the Q1 2020 Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report credit insights.Cristian DeRitis, Moody's Deputy Chief Economist provides an initial assessment of the impact from Coronavirus on the economy and an overview of macro-economic conditions impacting small business. Derrek Grunfelder-McCrank, Moody's Associate Economist provides a regional analysis of credit trends including business sectors that are performing well, and which ones are under pressure, and what's driving the trends. Brodie Oldham, Experian's Senior Director of Analytics Consultancy closes by sharing Experian's perspective on how small businesses are fairing.
After only one quarter there is no doubt the theme of 2020 is the pandemic, Covid-19. Unrelated to the pandemic and subsequent shuttering of a swath of economies across the world, delinquencies rose in the first quarter. This was as businesses reduced their borrowing. Lower borrowing will not have lasted long as government efforts to aid small businesses have taken the form of SBA lending. Nevertheless, 2020 will be a year of deteriorating performance and rising bankruptcies for small enterprises.
Leading economists from Moody's Analytics and experts from Experian provide a deep dive into the Q4 Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report credit insights. Ryan Sweet, from Moody's provides an initial assessment of the impact of Coronavirus on the economy, and Derrek G. McCrank provides an overview of regional credit conditions. Brodie Oldham, Experian's Senior Director of Analytics Consultancy closes by sharing Experian's perspective on how small businesses are fairing.
Confidence in a US-China trade deal helped to cushion business borrowing in the fourth quarter. Delinquent balances were up over the quarter due mainly to seasonal trends but were down from last year thanks to the continuation of the economy’s expansion. Weakness continued in agriculture and manufacturing businesses, but a trade deal could help these firms next year. All things considered, 2019 was a good year for small-business borrowing, and 2020 should bring more of the same.
Talk of a trade deal helped to shape the narrative for the third quarter, but there is more at play for small businesses than trade. Delinquency rates fell across most industries, but agriculture-related industries like construction and transportation had a rough quarter. A rising number of small businesses seeking credit should help to keep performance around current levels.
In spite of business confidence in the second quarter being shaken by talk of trade war escalation, businesses got a helping hand from seasonal factors which combined to push delinquency rates down. New businesses continue to form, providing an opportunity for credit expansion, if these businesses can access credit. Delinquency rates fell across most industries, but agriculture’s problems continued as weather and trade conditions continued to weigh on small farms. These factors won’t be as helpful in the third quarter so fundamentals or confidence will need to improve to propel performance and growth forward.
Experian and Moody's Analytics experts present insights from the most recent Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report for Q1 2019.
Small businesses brushed off a government shutdown as stock markets recovered and income gains remained steady in the first quarter of 2019. Delinquency rates remained mostly stable, with pockets of weakness spread out among regions and industries, notably agriculture in the Great Lakes and manufacturing in the Southwest. Small firms seem to have simply shrugged off the first-quarter headwinds and continued with business as usual.
The fourth quarter capped a second year of solid performance and growth for small-business credit, but there are signs that the period of moderation experienced during the past two years is over. Since the government shutdown has the potential to throw small-business lending a curveball in the first half of 2019, the outlook for small-business credit is neutral. Conditions were positive in the fourth quarter, but this may not last long. Delinquency rates remained mostly stable, with pockets of weakness spread out among regions and industries, notably construction in the Plains. In addition to the 35-day shutdown, rising interest rates, destabilizing trade policy and slowing home-price growth are potential trouble sources that are already starting to impact some regions.
Experian and Moody's Analytics experts present insights from the most recent Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report for Q3 2018.
The overall outlook for small-business credit is positive. Outstanding balances rose in the second quarter, as did the average balance per business. Delinquency rates continued the downward trend they have maintained through the expansion, and default rates stabilized at the level they reached last quarter. Continuing strength in the economy will keep small-business credit performance strong through the end of the current expansion, if not longer. Rising rates and destabilizing trade policy are potential sources of trouble, but thus far they haven’t slowed down small-business credit growth.
The overall outlook for small-business credit is positive, but some industries such as construction have a negative outlook. Outstanding balances rose in the third quarter, as did the average balance per business. Delinquency rates are stable around their current levels, but this could change quickly if risks mount for certain industries. Continuing strength in the economy should keep small business credit performance in check through the fourth quarter and early next year. Rising interest rates, destabilizing trade policy, and slowing home price growth are potential sources of trouble that are already starting to impact some regions.
Experian and Moody's Analytics experts present insights from the most recent Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report for Q2 2018.
Experian and Moody's Analytics experts present insights from the most recent Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report for Q1 2018.
The overall outlook for small-business credit is positive. Outstanding balances rose in the first quarter, as did the average balance outstanding per business. Delinquencies were down and default rates rose slightly, suggesting that credit conditions have peaked as the economy is in a late-cycle expansion. Continuing strength in the macroeconomy will keep small-business credit moving in the near term, along with higher profits from the recently passed tax legislation. Small-business credit will be less certain in the medium to long term as rising wages, interest rates and changes to the tax code take a toll.
Experian and Moody's Analytics experts present insights from the most recent Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report for Q4 2017.
The overall outlook for small-business credit is positive. Outstanding balances rose in the fourth quarter, as did the average balance outstanding per business. Delinquency and default rates rose slightly, suggesting that credit conditions have loosened. Continuing strength in the macroeconomy will keep small business moving in the near term, along with higher profits from the recently passed tax legislation. Small-business credit will be less certain in the medium to long term as rising wages and tax code changes take a toll.
Experian and Moody's Analytics experts present insights from the most recent Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report for Q3 2017.
The overall outlook for small-business credit is stable. Outstanding balances on small-business credit declined slightly in the third quarter, continuing a two-year trend. Delinquency and default rates were steady to declining, and business balance sheets continue to improve. Continued improvement in the labor market and economic growth bodes well for credit performance in the short term. Despite the overall optimism, pockets of localized weakness are developing and will warrant observation over the next few quarters.
Experian and Moody's Analytics experts present insights from the most recent Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report for Q2 2017.
Small-business delinquency rates experienced broad-based improvement in the second quarter. With job growth expected to continue, putting more money in consumers’ pockets, small businesses will continue to outperform in the short term. As performance on small-business loans and lines of credit improves, credit is expected to flow more freely as banks and other lenders compete for business. Although tax reform and infrastructure investment could provide an additional boost to small-business activity, consumer spending will be the driving force for small-business credit over the next quarter — and throughout the rest of the year. Read our blog post for more details.
Credit utilization rates expanded briskly in the first quarter of 2017. Taken with upside risk, which at the moment outweighs downside risk, credit conditions for small businesses are looking up. Rates of severe delinquency are declining broadly, and credit constraints should ease as a result. However, balance growth is threatened by the lack of clarity regarding fiscal policies. Small-business credit will be defined this year by what happens with the potential revisions to government policies and how full or nearly full employment translates into activity for small firms.
Small business credit balances expanded broadly in the fourth quarter driving delinquency rates down. Taken with upside risk, which at the moment outweighs downside risk, credit conditions for small businesses are looking up. Balances are growing in the Southeast and West, and delinquency rates are low throughout the country. The theme for 2017 will be robust balance growth and falling delinquencies. Combined with the prospect of tax reform, small businesses look set to thrive in the near future.
Small-business credit declined slightly in the third quarter, led by the mining and transportation/utility industries. Businesses have access to plenty of credit, and utilization rates remain low. The low delinquency/bankruptcy environment combined with low utilization rates leads to an overall positive outlook over the next several quarters. However, this optimism could change rapidly if interest rates rise or slow economic growth persists. Agriculture and construction credit remain bright points in the small-business credit outlook. Despite some downside risks, the sectors remain stable and well-positioned for growth.
The Experian/Moody’s Analytics Main Street Report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape. Small-business credit conditions improved in the second quarter. With the exception of some specific segments, delinquency and bankruptcy rates declined. Sentiment among small businesses is positive, with 11 percent planning to increase employment and 26 percent considering additional capital investment. Despite some downside risks, the sectors remain stable and well-positioned for growth.
Experian®, the leading global information services company, and Moody’s Analytics have teamed up to develop the new Experian/Moody’s Analytics Main Street Report. Unlike previous quarterly analyses, the new report brings deeper insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as providing commentary around what certain trends mean for credit grantors and the small-business community as a whole. Key factors of the Main Street Report include a combination of business credit data (credit balances, delinquency rates, utilization rates, etc.) and macroeconomic information (employment rates, income, retail sales, investments, etc.).
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