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Economic uncertainty is often seen as a deterrent to growth, but for many Americans, it’s become the fuel for a fresh start. As inflation wavers and traditional employment structures shift, more individuals are stepping out of corporate roles to pursue business ownership. In this week’s Commercial Pulse Report, we take a closer look at what’s driving this wave of entrepreneurial activity.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report provides a sharp look at how recent economic shifts are impacting small businesses across the U.S., with a special focus on supply chains, specifically the transportation industry, which is experiencing fallout from changing trade policies. Are industry-specific models effective in mitigating risk?

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals a complex but fascinating picture of the U.S. economy and the small business landscape. According to Javier Rodriquez-Paiva’s research, while headline indicators suggest moderation, like slowing inflation and a steady unemployment rate, beneath the surface, disparities in recovery and credit performance continue to deepen.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁!

While job satisfaction remains high ⭐, 𝟭 𝗶𝗻 𝟰 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 ⚠️.

Also, union membership is at a historic low—𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟵.𝟵%—but public support is rising, especially among younger workers. These dynamics are reshaping employer-employee relationships, with big implications for small businesses.

𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀:

✔️ Inflation cooled to 2.8%

✔️ 228K jobs added in March

✔️ Unemployment rose to 4.2%

✔️ Consumer sentiment dipped to its lowest since 2022

Small businesses continue to show resilience, with optimism inching up and business starts outpacing pre-pandemic levels.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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This week’s Commercial Pulse Report from Experian reveals critical shifts in the economy for small businesses. Inflation eased slightly to 2.8%, and the Small Business Index ticked up to 41.5—signs of stabilization. But rising financial fraud remains a major concern. Also:

🔒 70% increase in fraud since the pandemic

🧠 $40B in projected losses from AI-driven scams by 2027

📊 46% of SMB loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud

Lenders are responding with AI-powered analytics and cross-industry collaboration to stay ahead of these threats.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months​. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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In this episode, we discuss the growing economic crosswinds affecting small businesses, recent employment trends, consumer spending patterns, and the impressive growth of minority-owned businesses in the U.S. We highlight the challenges and opportunities these businesses face, particularly in accessing needed capital.

📌 41% of new commercial accounts are minority-owned, yet access to capital remains a barrier.

📌 44% of minority-owned businesses are less than six years old, showing strong entrepreneurial momentum.

📌 Industries like retail, construction, and healthcare are fueling this expansion.

For lenders, this represents an untapped market and a business opportunity with high growth potential.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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The U.S. small business landscape entered 2025, navigating short-term volatility as the new administration began implementing policy changes amid ongoing global uncertainties. Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, the election cycle introduced expectations of tax policy adjustments, government efficiency initiatives, and regulatory reforms aimed at bolstering U.S. consumers and small businesses; however, uncertainty over the scope and timing of these policies led to cautious lending and business investment. Inflationary pressures persisted, keeping borrowing costs elevated, while global risks, ranging from energy price fluctuations to supply chain disruptions, added complexity to the operating environment. 

Consumer resilience remained a key stabilizer, yet signs of spending fatigue emerged, raising concerns about demand sustainability. Despite these headwinds, strong cash flows and solid holiday spending encouraged lenders to signal a measured easing of underwriting standards. As 2025 progresses, small businesses must stay agile, adapting to evolving domestic policies and global market shifts to seize opportunities and sustain growth in a changing landscape.

This week's Commercial Pulse Report highlights key economic trends and small business credit conditions, providing insights for lenders, risk professionals, and business leaders.

The U.S. economy continues to face high interest rates and shifting market conditions:

• Inflation rose to 2.9% in December, marking its third consecutive increase and the highest level since July 2024.
• Unemployment declined to 4.0% in January, the lowest level since April 2024, but job growth slowed, with only 143K jobs added.
• Q4 GDP grew at 2.3%, down from 3.1% in Q3, indicating a moderate but slowing expansion.
• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation.

This report features the latest findings from the Experian Small Business Index™, a data-driven tool tracking small business financial health.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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