Report
Credit and Policy Crosswinds
Published May 27, 2025
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
U.S. small businesses are navigating a challenging but stabilizing credit environment, shaped by persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and cautious consumer sentiment. According to Experian’s latest data, small business credit utilization has remained steady, reflecting disciplined borrowing behavior, while delinquency rates have shown only modest increases, suggesting overall credit health remains intact. The Experian Small Business Index™ indicates a slight uptick in new business credit applications, signaling renewed interest in growth despite macroeconomic headwinds.
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Report
The Alt Labor Story
The longest U.S. government shutdown has paused official labor data, but private-sector insights reveal key trends shaping the job market. Alternative sources show slowing job creation, modestly higher unemployment, and signs of resilience consistent with the Fed’s outlook.
- Job growth weakened in late 2025 across major indicators
- Layoff announcements rose, but claims remain low
- Unemployment edged up in line with Fed projections
- Labor market stress remains relatively contained
Webinar
Macroeconomic forecasting and credit trends - November 2025
As we step closer to 2026, all eyes remain on the economic outlook, the labor market and consumer health. Experian’s Chief Economist Joseph Mayans, Director of Fintech Gavin Harding and Solution Insights Director Amanda Roth, will provide a look into:
- The latest economic and credit trends
- Labor market and consumer health
- Student loan update
Video
Rising Delinquencies Signal Growing Risk in Transportation & Warehousing
As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
Report
Top Econ Themes from Vision
The U.S. economy continues to surprise with its resilience - growth forecasts are improving, equity markets are hitting new highs, and fears of an imminent recession are fading. Joseph Mayans’ Vision 2025 session, “Navigating 2026: Global Macro Shifts, U.S. Credit Trends and the Evolving Lending Landscape,” explored the economic forces shaping the next year - from the AI-driven equity boom to structural vulnerabilities in the white-collar labor market. His key takeaway: while AI innovation is fueling growth and optimism, it also introduces new dependencies and risks that will define the next economic chapter.
Highlights:
- The AI Trade’s Dominance: Economic optimism is increasingly tied to the AI investment cycle—AI spending fuels stock gains, which in turn sustain higher-income consumer spending.
- Potential Vulnerability: Overreliance on AI-driven growth leaves the economy exposed if those massive investments fail to deliver expected productivity gains.
- Labor Market Shifts: AI is intensifying existing white-collar labor market imbalances—more graduates, fewer roles, and increasing automation pressure.
- Credit Market Implications: Rising white-collar vulnerability poses a growing risk for prime credit segments, especially if economic momentum slows.
- Future Readiness: As Sol Rashidi emphasized, humans’ edge lies in creativity and critical thinking—skills that should be strengthened, not outsourced, to AI.