Q4 2023 Experian/Oxford Economics Main Street Report

A concise guide to simplifying business credit modeling with automation. Learn how microservices streamline validation, testing, and analysis to help relationship managers, credit analysts, and adjudicators reduce manual effort, improve risk visibility, and make faster, more confident lending decisions.

Credit card performance remains a key indicator of consumer financial health. Join Experian experts as they explore the latest credit card trends shaping 2026.

• Credit card balances, utilization, and payment behavior
• Delinquency and risk trends across consumer segments
• What lenders and businesses should watch in 2026

In this webinar, Experian experts explore how organizations can apply proven consumer fraud prevention tactics to strengthen commercial lending defenses.

What you'll learn:

• How consumer fraud strategies can be adapted for commercial use cases
• Where commercial lending is most exposed and how to mitigate risk
• How shared signals across identity, behavior and devices can improve detection

The U.S. economy continued to expand in Q4 2025, though the pace of growth slowed and underlying indicators presented increasingly mixed signals. Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annualized rate, reflecting continued expansion but marking a deceleration from earlier in the year. In January 2026[GS1.1][SM1.2], inflation moderated to 2.4% year-over-year, providing relief to businesses and consumers alike. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained relatively low at 4.3%, underscoring ongoing labor market resilience.

However, beneath these stable headline indicators, signs of cooling emerged. Consumer spending and retail sales slowed during the quarter, suggesting households are becoming more selective amid elevated borrowing costs and slower wage growth. While consumer sentiment edged slightly higher in December, spending momentum weakened. Wage growth continued to moderate, and labor market churn declined, with lower quits and softer hiring activity signaling a gradual normalization rather than contraction.

According to the Experian Small Business Index™, business credit conditions remained within the typical 40-60 range. Lending availability showed slight tightening during the fourth quarter, while APRs remained elevated but stable. Entrepreneurial momentum remained strong. New business formations averaged approximately 509,000 per month, with acceleration most pronounced in the South and West.

Despite these pressures, optimism improved modestly among both consumers and small business owners. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index both recorded gains in December, suggesting confidence has stabilized even as economic momentum slows. As 2025 closesclosed, small businesses remained fundamentally stable but increasingly cautious, navigating a higher-cost credit environment and moderating demand.