Global Insights 2025 Predictions

The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals a complex but fascinating picture of the U.S. economy and the small business landscape. According to Javier Rodriquez-Paiva’s research, while headline indicators suggest moderation, like slowing inflation and a steady unemployment rate, beneath the surface, disparities in recovery and credit performance continue to deepen.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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If we go into a recession, what does it mean for lending activity? What does it mean for delinquency? As banks, credit unions and fintechs grapple with these questions, sometimes it helps to look to the past for guidance.

In this latest Macro Moment, take a quick look back at prior recessions and their impact on unemployment, delinquency, and loan growth. Key insights include:

• In the last five downturns, unemployment peaked an average of three quarters after the recession ended.
  
• In the last four recessions, 30+ DPD delinquency on all loans increased by an average 1.6 percentage points.
  
• In the prior five recessions, quarterly credit growth slowed from 1.9% in the two years in the lead up to recession to -0.1% in the year following a recession.

Standard credit scores overlook crucial financial behaviors, leaving 62 million U.S. consumers that are thin file or credit invisible without a score.

With alternative data, lenders can:

• Expand reach with precision
  
• Effectively mitigate risk
  
• Maximize ROI