Report
Published February 22, 2022
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic TrendsThe fourth quarter of 2021 enhanced the pressure felt by small businesses as the largest wave of COVID-19 hit the US. In addition to the effects of pandemic outbreak of labor and consumer engagement, an inflationary surge, largest increase since 1982, coupled with pandemic-related supply-and-demand imbalances, weighed heavily on US small businesses along with a notable impact to consumer sentiment.
Although workers were getting raises in the currently tight job market, rapid price increases are eroding consumers' earning power. Average wage earnings went up by 4.0% in Q4 '21 vs. the previous year, yet a 7.5% increase in inflation results in a net decline in real earnings. Workers' money is not going as far as it used to. Rising wages, however, put pressure on businesses' payrolls who may be forced to pass those costs to consumers.
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Video
Rising Delinquencies Signal Growing Risk in Transportation & Warehousing
As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors.
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Report
Top Econ Themes from Vision
The U.S. economy continues to surprise with its resilience - growth forecasts are improving, equity markets are hitting new highs, and fears of an imminent recession are fading. Joseph Mayans’ Vision 2025 session, “Navigating 2026: Global Macro Shifts, U.S. Credit Trends and the Evolving Lending Landscape,” explored the economic forces shaping the next year - from the AI-driven equity boom to structural vulnerabilities in the white-collar labor market. His key takeaway: while AI innovation is fueling growth and optimism, it also introduces new dependencies and risks that will define the next economic chapter.
Highlights:
- The AI Trade’s Dominance: Economic optimism is increasingly tied to the AI investment cycle—AI spending fuels stock gains, which in turn sustain higher-income consumer spending.
- Potential Vulnerability: Overreliance on AI-driven growth leaves the economy exposed if those massive investments fail to deliver expected productivity gains.
- Labor Market Shifts: AI is intensifying existing white-collar labor market imbalances—more graduates, fewer roles, and increasing automation pressure.
- Credit Market Implications: Rising white-collar vulnerability poses a growing risk for prime credit segments, especially if economic momentum slows.
- Future Readiness: As Sol Rashidi emphasized, humans’ edge lies in creativity and critical thinking—skills that should be strengthened, not outsourced, to AI.
White Paper
State of Student Loans
Explore Experian’s latest State of Student Loans white paper to uncover key trends, borrower insights, and the evolving impact of student debt on financial health. Learn how data-driven solutions can help lenders and consumers navigate today’s student loan landscape.
Key considerations include:
- Strategies to engage consumers proactively to provide resources
- Recalibration of risk models
- Mitigating fraud while navigating the changing landscape
Video
Under Pressure: How Rising Food Costs Are Changing Restaurant Credit Behavior
Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report dives into the financial health of the restaurant sector amid rising costs and shifting consumer behavior.
Key insights:
- Menu prices at Full-Service Restaurants rose 4.6% in August — outpacing inflation.
- Limited-Service Restaurants are showing improved credit risk scores, suggesting stronger adaptability.
- Credit access is tightening across the board, with average credit limits falling below $6,000.
- Revolving credit utilization is climbing — an early signal of potential cash flow strain.
What does this mean for lenders and decision makers?
✅ Not all restaurant types face the same risks.
✅ Segmenting credit strategies is more important than ever.
✅ Watch utilization and inquiry trends closely — they may be early indicators of distress.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!