Report
Published August 13, 2024
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
The excitement of a U.S. Election cycle in the fall, a cooling economy, rising unemployment, and a turbulent international landscape all play into a fall filled with anxious sentiment but stable cash flows. The economy has been humming at a stable pace over the last two quarters. Consumers have been spending their wage gains while not overleveraging their cards. This stability in the market has led small businesses to operate in the U.S. at pace with expectations. Growth has been slow as credit markets, although open, have tightened underwriting policies that limit both the consumer and small business from gaining access to low-cost funding to enter a season of true growth in the U.S. The economy is cooling, and the market expectations for a Federal Funds Rate cut are rising.
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Industry-specific risk models
The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report provides a sharp look at how recent economic shifts are impacting small businesses across the U.S., with a special focus on supply chains, specifically the transportation industry, which is experiencing fallout from changing trade policies. Are industry-specific models effective in mitigating risk?
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
Report
Uncertainty, AI, and White-Collar Hiring
While the US labor market remains on decent footing, it has become increasingly challenging to land a job. For lenders, current dynamics suggest there could be greater-than-expected stress in higher-income households and in the Prime credit segments of the market if layoffs increase and job opportunities for these workers remain scarce. Insights include:
- Businesses are scaling back on hiring due to economic uncertainty and AI uptake
- Employment in both tech-centric and broader professional and business services has been stagnant
- Higher-educated/white-collar workers feeling the strain of a challenging job market
Webinar
Macroeconomic forecasting and regional trends - May 2025
As we progress through 2025, economic conditions continue to shift as uncertainty climbs. Discover our experts' insights on how they anticipate the economic landscape to evolve throughout 2025, as they delve into the latest trends and forecasts.
Report
Small Business Resilience Amid Economic Divergence
The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals a complex but fascinating picture of the U.S. economy and the small business landscape. According to Javier Rodriquez-Paiva’s research, while headline indicators suggest moderation, like slowing inflation and a steady unemployment rate, beneath the surface, disparities in recovery and credit performance continue to deepen.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!