Report
Published May 25, 2023
Commercial Commercial InsightsQ1 GDP grew by 1.1% annualized, following a 2.6% gain in Q4 2022. However, recent data's accuracy is affected by weather-induced consumer spending and unusual seasonal adjustments. Notably, Q1 GDP doesn't reflect the impact of tightened lending standards yet. The core of the economy, measured by real final sales to domestic purchasers, rose by a solid 2.9% annualized, driven by strong consumer spending concentrated in early Q1 and aided by significant cost-of-living payments. Inventory reduction subtracted 2.3ppts from Q1 GDP growth, and this trend is expected to persist as businesses draw from existing stockpiles to meet demand. The Oxford Economics US Business Cycle Indicator declined for two consecutive months, indicating weak Q1 performance. The indicator suggests feeble Q2 growth and a possible H2 2023 recession.
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Convergence of consumer and commercial fraud prevention
In this webinar, Experian experts explore how organizations can apply proven consumer fraud prevention tactics to strengthen commercial lending defenses.
What you'll learn:
- How consumer fraud strategies can be adapted for commercial use cases
- Where commercial lending is most exposed and how to mitigate risk
- How shared signals across identity, behavior and devices can improve detection
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Q4 2025 Main Street Report
The U.S. economy continued to expand in Q4 2025, though the pace of growth slowed and underlying indicators presented increasingly mixed signals. Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annualized rate, reflecting continued expansion but marking a deceleration from earlier in the year. In January 2026[GS1.1][SM1.2], inflation moderated to 2.4% year-over-year, providing relief to businesses and consumers alike. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained relatively low at 4.3%, underscoring ongoing labor market resilience.
However, beneath these stable headline indicators, signs of cooling emerged. Consumer spending and retail sales slowed during the quarter, suggesting households are becoming more selective amid elevated borrowing costs and slower wage growth. While consumer sentiment edged slightly higher in December, spending momentum weakened. Wage growth continued to moderate, and labor market churn declined, with lower quits and softer hiring activity signaling a gradual normalization rather than contraction.
According to the Experian Small Business Index™, business credit conditions remained within the typical 40-60 range. Lending availability showed slight tightening during the fourth quarter, while APRs remained elevated but stable. Entrepreneurial momentum remained strong. New business formations averaged approximately 509,000 per month, with acceleration most pronounced in the South and West.
Despite these pressures, optimism improved modestly among both consumers and small business owners. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index both recorded gains in December, suggesting confidence has stabilized even as economic momentum slows. As 2025 closesclosed, small businesses remained fundamentally stable but increasingly cautious, navigating a higher-cost credit environment and moderating demand.
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Q3 2025 Main Street Report
The holidays are here, and Black Friday sparks a surge in consumer spending. U.S. small businesses are proving remarkably resilient despite persistent economic challenges. Inflation held at 3.0% in September, and interest rates remain elevated, yet entrepreneurs are capitalizing on seasonal demand through digital innovation and disciplined financial strategies.
August saw 428,937 new business applications, a 10% year-over-year increase driven by minority and younger founders, while the Experian Small Business Index™ rose to 41.1, signaling improved credit health. With average credit card APRs exceeding 21.5%, small firms are shifting toward installment loans to finance inventory and holiday promotions, ensuring structured repayment and sustainable growth.
This adaptability positions local retailers to turn economic headwinds into opportunities, leveraging festive shopping momentum to strengthen their foothold in a competitive market.
Video
Rising Delinquencies Signal Growing Risk in Transportation & Warehousing
As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!