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While the U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, the labor market remains solid and consumers are well-positioned, there remain a few challenges ahead in 2025 that could cloud the economic outlook including potential inflationary pressures and continued affordability issues in the housing market. As these trends play out over the course of the year, businesses must stay on top of the latest economic developments.

Experian’s Chief UK Economist Mohammed Chaudhri’s latest report shares his forecast for the rest of the year and beyond with insights into the latest economic trends and developments.

In this episode, we discuss the growing economic crosswinds affecting small businesses, recent employment trends, consumer spending patterns, and the impressive growth of minority-owned businesses in the U.S. We highlight the challenges and opportunities these businesses face, particularly in accessing needed capital.

📌 41% of new commercial accounts are minority-owned, yet access to capital remains a barrier.

📌 44% of minority-owned businesses are less than six years old, showing strong entrepreneurial momentum.

📌 Industries like retail, construction, and healthcare are fueling this expansion.

For lenders, this represents an untapped market and a business opportunity with high growth potential.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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The U.S. small business landscape entered 2025, navigating short-term volatility as the new administration began implementing policy changes amid ongoing global uncertainties. Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, the election cycle introduced expectations of tax policy adjustments, government efficiency initiatives, and regulatory reforms aimed at bolstering U.S. consumers and small businesses; however, uncertainty over the scope and timing of these policies led to cautious lending and business investment. Inflationary pressures persisted, keeping borrowing costs elevated, while global risks, ranging from energy price fluctuations to supply chain disruptions, added complexity to the operating environment. 

Consumer resilience remained a key stabilizer, yet signs of spending fatigue emerged, raising concerns about demand sustainability. Despite these headwinds, strong cash flows and solid holiday spending encouraged lenders to signal a measured easing of underwriting standards. As 2025 progresses, small businesses must stay agile, adapting to evolving domestic policies and global market shifts to seize opportunities and sustain growth in a changing landscape.

Key themes and emerging trends shaping financial services in 2025, using research and insight from leading industry analysts. Themes include:

• Fraud evolution driven by AI
  
• AI will play a transformative role in banking
  
• Emergence of RegTech
  
• Convergence of risk management

Recent statistics reveal a direct connection between employee identity theft and business vulnerabilities. Compromised employee credentials can be a common entry point for fraudsters and putting your organization’s cybersecurity at risk. 

• Up to 80% of cyberattacks leverage identity-based attack methods, and many breaches stem from phishing attacks targeting employee login details
  
• The average cost of a data breach was $4.88 million in 2024, the highest average on record.
  
• Cyberattacks are becoming more common, striking 4,000 times per day.

While all eyes are on the impact of tariffs, immigration policy, and other proposals coming out of the new administration, the five key trends that I’ll be watching in 2025 have been playing out over the last couple of years and will be important to how the economy and lending market unfolds in the year ahead.

Trends include:

• The slowdown in the “white-collar” job market
• The stabilization of consumer delinquency
• The letting up of lending standard tightening

Explore state-level and industry level data that banks, credit unions and fintechs can leverage to track the downturn and be correctly positioned for the recovery in this monthly report.

Credit risk, fraud, and compliance have long operated in silos, but forward-thinking organizations are unlocking new opportunities through convergence.

Read our e-book to learn how aligning these critical functions can help you:

• Reduce overall risk
• Improve operational efficiency
• Stay ahead of the competition

In today's fast-paced world, locating individuals quickly is crucial for debt collectors and lenders. TrueTrace™, Experian’s leading skip tracing software, has undergone significant enhancements, improving data accuracy and expanding data sources.

These upgrades offer:

• Increased right-party contact (RPC) rates
• Better cost efficiency
• Improved user experience

Call blocking, mislabeling, and increased scam activity have led to a decline in RPC rates. TrueTrace addresses these challenges with enhanced data accuracy, using an identity graph to tie data from disparate sources to a unique identity profile for each consumer.

TrueTrace's enhancements represent a significant advancement in skip tracing technology, helping businesses achieve better results and operational efficiency.