Experian begins a new chapter with the release of the Q1 2022 Main Street Report through our collaboration with the leading economists at Oxford Economics. During Q1, small businesses kept average commercial loan balances healthy and stable. At the same time, moderate delinquency inched up but remained low overall as business and consumer travel returned to form, offering major tourist destinations a boost.

The fourth quarter of 2021 enhanced the pressure felt by small businesses as the largest wave of COVID-19 hit the US. In addition to the effects of pandemic outbreak of labor and consumer engagement, an inflationary surge, largest increase since 1982, coupled with pandemic-related supply-and-demand imbalances, weighed heavily on US small businesses along with a notable impact to consumer sentiment.

Although workers were getting raises in the currently tight job market, rapid price increases are eroding consumers’ earning power. Average wage earnings went up by 4.0% in Q4 ’21 vs. the previous year, yet a 7.5% increase in inflation results in a net decline in real earnings. Workers’ money is not going as far as it used to. Rising wages, however, put pressure on businesses’ payrolls who may be forced to pass those costs to consumers.

While many financial institutions may be fearful of the risks associated with lending to thin-file consumers, there are numerous ways to expand lending beyond a generic 700 credit score threshold.

Watch this on-demand webinar where Experian experts, Shawn Rife, Product Management Director, and Alvin Yuan, Senior Product Manager, explore how diversified data can help financial institutions grow and protect their portfolios while expanding financial access to underserved communities.

Mortgage lenders are preparing now for the end of CARES Act forbearances and are focused on assessing the impact on their portfolios as borrowers exit accommodation. In our latest Experian analysis, we explore how mortgage lenders can more accurately gauge this impact and strategies to help navigate the current mortgage landscape.