Beyond the Trends

Cooler weather brings a cooler economy

As the U.S. economy cools, small businesses prepare for the holidays and the stress of wrapping up another year. The US consumer has exceeded market expectations by spending beyond savings and looking at leverage to continue the behavior. Costs for core expenses continue to rise and notably impact spending capacity. Emerging consumers, GenZ, are leveraging at a higher rate than prior generations to the detriment of their credit health. This spending trend is cooling as consumer sentiment has been slowing coming into a US election cycle where uncertainty is on the ticket.

U.S. basking in a hot small business economy. Small businesses are crucial for holiday retail sales. They account for 44% of US economic activity and employ nearly half the US workforce. During the holiday season, small retailers often generate 20-30% of their annual revenue.

Chart: Federal Funds Rate and Forecast — Source: Experian Economic Strategy Group, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

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Beyond the Trends is a quarterly report written by Experian Business Information Services. The report offers a unique view of the small business economy based on what we see in the data. With up to date information on over 25 million active businesses and how they perform from a credit standpoint. Experian will share insights and commentary on how economic conditions, public policy, and other factors might shape future small business performance.

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