Report
Published February 23, 2023
Commercial Commercial InsightsThe fourth quarter boasted open commercial lending markets, inclusive of all tiers of credit risk, even as measured commercial delinquencies returned to pre-pandemic levels. An increasing number of commercial lenders are developing product and underwriting strategies to limit the expected exposure in a near term recession. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near term as heightened inflation lingers. Higher costs of goods and services will pressure spending behavior as affordability tightens and personal cashflows thin.
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Q3 2025 Main Street Report
The holidays are here, and Black Friday sparks a surge in consumer spending. U.S. small businesses are proving remarkably resilient despite persistent economic challenges. Inflation held at 3.0% in September, and interest rates remain elevated, yet entrepreneurs are capitalizing on seasonal demand through digital innovation and disciplined financial strategies.
August saw 428,937 new business applications, a 10% year-over-year increase driven by minority and younger founders, while the Experian Small Business Index™ rose to 41.1, signaling improved credit health. With average credit card APRs exceeding 21.5%, small firms are shifting toward installment loans to finance inventory and holiday promotions, ensuring structured repayment and sustainable growth.
This adaptability positions local retailers to turn economic headwinds into opportunities, leveraging festive shopping momentum to strengthen their foothold in a competitive market.
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Rising Delinquencies Signal Growing Risk in Transportation & Warehousing
As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
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Under Pressure: How Rising Food Costs Are Changing Restaurant Credit Behavior
Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report dives into the financial health of the restaurant sector amid rising costs and shifting consumer behavior.
Key insights:
- Menu prices at Full-Service Restaurants rose 4.6% in August — outpacing inflation.
- Limited-Service Restaurants are showing improved credit risk scores, suggesting stronger adaptability.
- Credit access is tightening across the board, with average credit limits falling below $6,000.
- Revolving credit utilization is climbing — an early signal of potential cash flow strain.
What does this mean for lenders and decision makers?
✅ Not all restaurant types face the same risks.
✅ Segmenting credit strategies is more important than ever.
✅ Watch utilization and inquiry trends closely — they may be early indicators of distress.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
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Credit Signals in Construction: Early Warnings for Lenders and Risk Leaders
The construction industry has experienced significant growth over the last seven years, but fresh data reveals mounting signs of financial stress that commercial lenders and Chief Risk Officers should be closely monitoring.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!