Welcome to the Experian Thought Leadership Hub

If we go into a recession, what does it mean for lending activity? What does it mean for delinquency? As banks, credit unions and fintechs grapple with these questions, sometimes it helps to look to the past for guidance.

In this latest Macro Moment, take a quick look back at prior recessions and their impact on unemployment, delinquency, and loan growth. Key insights include:

• In the last five downturns, unemployment peaked an average of three quarters after the recession ended.
  
• In the last four recessions, 30+ DPD delinquency on all loans increased by an average 1.6 percentage points.
  
• In the prior five recessions, quarterly credit growth slowed from 1.9% in the two years in the lead up to recession to -0.1% in the year following a recession.

Lending institutions can gain an edge on the competition by determining what happens when a loan gets booked elsewhere. With loan loss analysis, lenders can learn more about where these lost loans are booked, the average loan amount, the interest rate, the loan term length, and the average risk score.

Analyzing this information can help lenders:

• Improve lead quality
  
• Target the right consumers
  
• Acquire more high-quality loans
  
• Increase cross-sell opportunities

Standard credit scores overlook crucial financial behaviors, leaving 62 million U.S. consumers that are thin file or credit invisible without a score.

With alternative data, lenders can:

• Expand reach with precision
  
• Effectively mitigate risk
  
• Maximize ROI

Download our report for insights into the major financial milestones your consumers are facing including:

• Gen Z’s journey to independently acquire their first credit products
  
• Millennials’ quest to become first-time homebuyers
  
• Baby Boomers and older Gen X reaching retirement

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁!

While job satisfaction remains high ⭐, 𝟭 𝗶𝗻 𝟰 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 ⚠️.

Also, union membership is at a historic low—𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟵.𝟵%—but public support is rising, especially among younger workers. These dynamics are reshaping employer-employee relationships, with big implications for small businesses.

𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀:

✔️ Inflation cooled to 2.8%

✔️ 228K jobs added in March

✔️ Unemployment rose to 4.2%

✔️ Consumer sentiment dipped to its lowest since 2022

Small businesses continue to show resilience, with optimism inching up and business starts outpacing pre-pandemic levels.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

Relying solely on traditional credit scores can leave you with a limited view into consumers’ financial stability.

See how integrating alternative data can help you:

• Identify more qualified borrowers
• Spot potential risks
• Strengthen portfolio performance

Loan loss analysis is an effective way for lending institutions to drive smarter business decisions by identifying loans that have been lost, where they’ve been booked, their key characteristics, and how they’ve performed.

With loan loss analysis, you can gain visibility into: 

• What type of financial institution did that applicant book with (bank, credit union, finance company, etc.)? 
  
• What was the average loan amount, and were others offering more or less? 
  
• What was the estimated interest rate, and how did it compare to yours? 
  
• What was the loan term length? 
  
• What was the average risk score? 

Accessing this information can help your organization validate your lending policies or find out where you can make adjustments to remain competitive in the market and win more business.

Learn how Experian's Retention Triggers can alert you when your customers shop for new credit or improve their credit standing.

By leveraging this solution, you can then:

• Make the right offer at the right time
• Prevent attrition
• Increase customer lifetime value

With the recent Fed announcement and fewer interest rate cuts on the horizon, it’s time to posture your organization more defensively. Where to start? A portfolio management activity that is often overlooked is the accuracy behind classifying fraud and credit risk.

Join our experts for an insightful webinar where they’ll review:

• The state of the Credit Card industry
• The value of performing lookback reviews – beyond accuracy
• Credit tools to help your portfolio management strategies