Report
The Great Recalibration
Published August 13, 2025
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
U.S. small businesses are demonstrating exceptional adaptability amid a complex post-pandemic economic environment. Inflation remains elevated above 3%, interest rates are steady between 4.25% and 4.50%, and global trade dynamics continue to introduce volatility. Despite these pressures, small firms are showing resilience, driven by improved digital capabilities, disciplined fiscal management, and a steady flow of entrepreneurial activity.
In Q2 2025, an average of 447,000 new business applications were filed, with significant contributions from minority and younger founders. The Experian Small Business Index™ held steady, credit conditions remained tight. Traditional lenders continued to restrict approvals, with just 13% of applications approved by large banks. In response, small businesses increasingly turned to fintech and embedded finance solutions for faster, data-driven access to capital.
Borrowing behaviors are shifting. The average small business credit card APRs now exceed 25%, firms are transitioning toward installment loans that offer structured repayment terms.
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