The Summer 2023 report contains several insights on the economic landscape impacting small businesses, among them — rising delinquencies being a significant concern. The latest report emphasizes the need for strategic planning and careful management of debt, along with an understanding of broader economic factors that may impact small business performance.

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Q1 GDP grew by 1.1% annualized, following a 2.6% gain in Q4 2022. However, recent data's accuracy is affected by weather-induced consumer spending and unusual seasonal adjustments. Notably, Q1 GDP doesn't reflect the impact of tightened lending standards yet. The core of the economy, measured by real final sales to domestic purchasers, rose by a solid 2.9% annualized, driven by strong consumer spending concentrated in early Q1 and aided by significant cost-of-living payments. Inventory reduction subtracted 2.3ppts from Q1 GDP growth, and this trend is expected to persist as businesses draw from existing stockpiles to meet demand. The Oxford Economics US Business Cycle Indicator declined for two consecutive months, indicating weak Q1 performance. The indicator suggests feeble Q2 growth and a possible H2 2023 recession.

The Spring report contains several insights on small business performance including - delinquencies are rising for small businesses across regions and products, and businesses are making decisions about how they repay debt. The economy will slow in 2023, and consumer and small business credit health and spending behavior will adjust to the new reality. Cashflows will be tested in industry segments focused on home-based work/life as the labor force returns to the office, but some businesses require hybrid work schedules to encourage collaboration and a more connected work environment.

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