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Commercial Pulse Report 2/11/2025
Published February 11, 2025
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market InsightsThis week's Commercial Pulse Report highlights key economic trends and small business credit conditions, providing insights for lenders, risk professionals, and business leaders.
The U.S. economy continues to face high interest rates and shifting market conditions:
- Inflation rose to 2.9% in December, marking its third consecutive increase and the highest level since July 2024.
- Unemployment declined to 4.0% in January, the lowest level since April 2024, but job growth slowed, with only 143K jobs added.
- Q4 GDP grew at 2.3%, down from 3.1% in Q3, indicating a moderate but slowing expansion.
- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation.
This report features the latest findings from the Experian Small Business Index™, a data-driven tool tracking small business financial health.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
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Report
2026 State of Credit Cards
As the credit card landscape evolves, understanding how consumers and businesses are adapting has never been more important.
Our second annual State of Credit Cards Report provides a timely update on key market dynamics and dives into an often-overlooked segment within credit card portfolios: business accounts.
Key takeaways:
- 30+ DPD delinquency rates remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2025.
- Fintechs continue to gain share in the credit card market, posting a 71% YoY increase in account originations.
- Many businesses use consumer credit cards to support business-related activity, making this segment easy for lenders to overlook.
Report
Regional Economic Health Tracker
The Regional Economic Health Tracker examines consumer health across the four U.S. census regions. It highlights how regional dynamics, from data center growth to housing costs and credit conditions, are shaping household finances today.
- Regional income, spending, and cost-of-living trends
- Housing market performance and price changes
- Consumer stress and 30+ DPD balances by product
White Paper
Unlocking credit potential: the financial behavior and creditworthiness of ITIN holders
ITIN holders are active, responsible participants in the U.S. credit economy — yet many remain overlooked by traditional lending models.
Our white paper takes a closer look at this financially active and resilient population, revealing key insights into their credit performance and long-term growth potential.
Some findings include:
- Most ITIN holders are concentrated in states that represent a large share of the U.S. economy: California, Texas and New York.
- 76.9% of ITIN holders remained current on trades after 12 months, a rate 15% higher than SSN consumers.
- ITIN holders maintain a lower debt-to-income ratio (25%) than SSN consumers.
Read the full white paper for more insights.
Tip Sheet
A companion piece to Bridging the credit divide: income, risk and inclusion in consumer finance
This summary outlines important research findings that help lenders drive a more inclusive environment for customers, while mitigating risk.
A few takeaways:
- Understanding the profiles of who’s more prone to exclusion informs risk management.
- Machine learning techniques can also be deployed to help detect economic interaction effects or shifts.
- Attributes like education level, occupation or rent/utilities payment history have predictive power in credit outcomes.