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Unemployment down, rate cuts on hold

Commercial Pulse Report 2/11/2025

Published February 11, 2025

Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights

This week's Commercial Pulse Report highlights key economic trends and small business credit conditions, providing insights for lenders, risk professionals, and business leaders.

The U.S. economy continues to face high interest rates and shifting market conditions:

  • Inflation rose to 2.9% in December, marking its third consecutive increase and the highest level since July 2024.
  • Unemployment declined to 4.0% in January, the lowest level since April 2024, but job growth slowed, with only 143K jobs added.
  • Q4 GDP grew at 2.3%, down from 3.1% in Q3, indicating a moderate but slowing expansion.
  • The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation.

This report features the latest findings from the Experian Small Business Index™, a data-driven tool tracking small business financial health.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

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Economic uncertainty remains elevated amid geopolitical instability, but the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Explore Experian's latest base-case forecast and what it could mean for businesses planning ahead.

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Consumers have powered the U.S. economy through repeated shocks, but new pressures are testing their resilience. As energy prices rise and economic conditions shift, the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

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2026 H1 Alternative financial services trends snapshot: growth, risk and where it’s moving

Download the latest Alternative Financial Services Trend Report to reveal new insights on growth and risk, including:

  • Loan volume is up 21% YoY across installment and single pay products
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