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Commercial Pulse Report | 3-11-2025
Published March 11, 2025
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing
The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
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Webinar
Macroeconomic forecasting and credit trends - November 2025
As we step closer to 2026, all eyes remain on the economic outlook, the labor market and consumer health. Experian’s Chief Economist Joseph Mayans, Director of Fintech Gavin Harding and Solution Insights Director Amanda Roth, will provide a look into:
- The latest economic and credit trends
- Labor market and consumer health
- Student loan update
Video
Rising Delinquencies Signal Growing Risk in Transportation & Warehousing
As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
Report
Top Econ Themes from Vision
The U.S. economy continues to surprise with its resilience - growth forecasts are improving, equity markets are hitting new highs, and fears of an imminent recession are fading. Joseph Mayans’ Vision 2025 session, “Navigating 2026: Global Macro Shifts, U.S. Credit Trends and the Evolving Lending Landscape,” explored the economic forces shaping the next year - from the AI-driven equity boom to structural vulnerabilities in the white-collar labor market. His key takeaway: while AI innovation is fueling growth and optimism, it also introduces new dependencies and risks that will define the next economic chapter.
Highlights:
- The AI Trade’s Dominance: Economic optimism is increasingly tied to the AI investment cycle—AI spending fuels stock gains, which in turn sustain higher-income consumer spending.
- Potential Vulnerability: Overreliance on AI-driven growth leaves the economy exposed if those massive investments fail to deliver expected productivity gains.
- Labor Market Shifts: AI is intensifying existing white-collar labor market imbalances—more graduates, fewer roles, and increasing automation pressure.
- Credit Market Implications: Rising white-collar vulnerability poses a growing risk for prime credit segments, especially if economic momentum slows.
- Future Readiness: As Sol Rashidi emphasized, humans’ edge lies in creativity and critical thinking—skills that should be strengthened, not outsourced, to AI.
White Paper
State of Student Loans
Explore Experian’s latest State of Student Loans white paper to uncover key trends, borrower insights, and the evolving impact of student debt on financial health. Learn how data-driven solutions can help lenders and consumers navigate today’s student loan landscape.
Key considerations include:
- Strategies to engage consumers proactively to provide resources
- Recalibration of risk models
- Mitigating fraud while navigating the changing landscape