Macroeconomic forecasting and regional trends - October 2024

The U.S. economy continues to surprise with its resilience - growth forecasts are improving, equity markets are hitting new highs, and fears of an imminent recession are fading. Joseph Mayans’ Vision 2025 session, “Navigating 2026: Global Macro Shifts, U.S. Credit Trends and the Evolving Lending Landscape,” explored the economic forces shaping the next year - from the AI-driven equity boom to structural vulnerabilities in the white-collar labor market. His key takeaway: while AI innovation is fueling growth and optimism, it also introduces new dependencies and risks that will define the next economic chapter.

Highlights:

• The AI Trade’s Dominance: Economic optimism is increasingly tied to the AI investment cycle—AI spending fuels stock gains, which in turn sustain higher-income consumer spending.
• Potential Vulnerability: Overreliance on AI-driven growth leaves the economy exposed if those massive investments fail to deliver expected productivity gains.
• Labor Market Shifts: AI is intensifying existing white-collar labor market imbalances—more graduates, fewer roles, and increasing automation pressure.
• Credit Market Implications: Rising white-collar vulnerability poses a growing risk for prime credit segments, especially if economic momentum slows.
• Future Readiness: As Sol Rashidi emphasized, humans’ edge lies in creativity and critical thinking—skills that should be strengthened, not outsourced, to AI.

Explore Experian’s latest State of Student Loans white paper to uncover key trends, borrower insights, and the evolving impact of student debt on financial health. Learn how data-driven solutions can help lenders and consumers navigate today’s student loan landscape.

Key considerations include:

• Strategies to engage consumers proactively to provide resources
• Recalibration of risk models
• Mitigating fraud while navigating the changing landscape

Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report dives into the financial health of the restaurant sector amid rising costs and shifting consumer behavior.

Key insights:

• Menu prices at Full-Service Restaurants rose 4.6% in August — outpacing inflation.
• Limited-Service Restaurants are showing improved credit risk scores, suggesting stronger adaptability.
• Credit access is tightening across the board, with average credit limits falling below $6,000.
• Revolving credit utilization is climbing — an early signal of potential cash flow strain.

What does this mean for lenders and decision makers?

✅ Not all restaurant types face the same risks.

✅ Segmenting credit strategies is more important than ever.

✅ Watch utilization and inquiry trends closely — they may be early indicators of distress.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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The U.S. economy shows signs of steady growth in Q3, yet challenges remain. A cooling labor market and persistent inflation create uncertainty, prompting lenders to stay cautious while adapting. Even in this dynamic environment, growth opportunities continue to emerge across the industry.