The U.S. housing market is no longer waiting on the sidelines. After enduring over two years of historically high mortgage rates, the Federal Reserve began implementing rate cuts in fall 2025, with additional reductions forecast for early 2026. For lenders, this marks more than a turning point—it’s a call to action. Whether you’re targeting first-time buyers, tracking refinance-ready loans, or watching affordability trends, today’s environment demands rapid, strategic adjustments. Rate cuts are fueling renewed demand Mortgage rates, which hovered around 7% for much of the past year, have begun to ease. Even a modest drop has the potential to unlock substantial borrower interest—particularly among the 4.4 million U.S. mortgages now “ripe” for refinance. Expect a spike in both rate-and-term refinances and cash-out activity, as homeowners look to lower payments or access equity. Lenders must scale up quickly, especially around digital capacity, prescreen targeting, and streamlined closings. Affordability is still a roadblock—Especially for younger renters Despite improving borrowing conditions, affordability remains a systemic challenge. The national rent-to-income (RTI) ratio stands at 46.8%, up 7.7% since early 2023. In high-cost states like California and Massachusetts, it exceeds 56%. Experian data reveals that 62% of renters fall into the low-to-moderate income category, spending over half their income on rent. Over 50% now fall into Near Prime or Subprime credit tiers, making alternative credit data—like rental payment history—vital for inclusive underwriting. Refinance isn't the only opportunity—Target first-time buyers strategically Gen Z is now the largest segment of the rental population, and many are financially strained yet aspirational. A major opportunity exists in helping these renters transition to homeownership using expanded credit models and customized offerings. With Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)-approved models like VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T on the horizon, lenders should explore how newer scoring frameworks and rent payment reporting can increase access to mortgage credit. Region-specific strategies are more important than ever From Miami to Minneapolis, market conditions vary drastically. Some metros, like Kansas City (+16.7%) and Louisville (+14.2%), are experiencing double-digit rent growth, while cities like Atlanta and Jacksonville are seeing declines. Lenders must tailor outreach based on local affordability trends, migration patterns, and housing supply constraints. Dynamic analytics tools—like Experian’s Ascend or Mortgage Insights Dashboard—can guide regional strategy at scale. The supply side may not keep pace Even with rate cuts stimulating demand, housing supply could remain a bottleneck. Multifamily completions are outpacing starts 1.5 to 1, and single-family construction, though recovering, remains cautious. In markets with tight supply, reduced borrowing costs may drive up prices faster than inventory can absorb, exacerbating affordability for first-time buyers. What lenders should prioritize now • Build Refinance Infrastructure: Prepare for increased volume with instant income verification tools like Experian Verify to streamline processes. • Target First-Time Buyers: Use rental history, cashflow scores, and rent-to-income metrics to assess nontraditional credit applicants fairly. • Get Granular with Geography: Align product offerings with local affordability, vacancy rates, and rent growth. • Leverage Self-Service Prescreen Tools: Act on opportunities quickly using Experian’s agile targeting platforms. • Model with New Credit Scores: Take advantage of the Experian Score Choice Bundle to test VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 2 side by side. Final Thought: The market is not rebounding—It is realigning The current housing shift is not a return to old norms—it’s the start of a redefined landscape. Lenders who act decisively, invest in technology, and prioritize inclusivity will lead the next chapter in mortgage growth. Experian is here to support you—with data, insights, and tools designed for this very moment.

As we move into the final stretch of 2025, the U.S. housing market is balancing sustained, but stagnant originations volumes with softening credit performance. For mortgage lenders and servicers, this presents both challenges and opportunities. Experian’s highlights a housing market that is not in crisis but showing signs of strain that require attention and strategic adaptation. Identified risk trends: Escrow pressures and student loan headwinds Meanwhile, the return of student loan repayments is having a ripple effect across mortgage performance — particularly among borrowers with sub-660 credit scores and those already behind on student loans. These borrowers are exhibiting significantly higher mortgage delinquency rates, revealing an urgent need to track cross-credit dependencies more closely. In the home equity space, the delinquency picture is mixed. HELOC delinquencies have flattened, while HELOANs are experiencing a divergence — early-stage delinquencies are falling, but late-stage delinquencies are rising. These trends indicate relative stability in home equity credit performance, but attention should be paid to segments of the market, like securitized home equity, for deterioration in credit performance. Refinance revival: A glimmer of growth Despite these risk signals, growth is returning in key areas. Refinance activity is rebounding, driven by dips in Treasury yields and renewed borrower interest in lowering monthly payments. Originations are increasing, and mortgage direct mail marketing has resumed after a period of stagnation. Both prescreen and invitation-to-apply (ITA) campaigns are on the rise, signaling a re-engagement with the borrower market. Home equity lending is also heating up, particularly in the prescreen space, with fintechs aggressively scaling their outreach. This resurgence in marketing creates an opening for lenders — but only those equipped to act quickly. Market fundamentals: Why housing supply still lags Beneath these lending and marketing shifts lies a broader macroeconomic narrative. GDP growth is slowing, unemployment is creeping upward and inflation remains stubbornly high. Mortgage rates hover between six and seven percent, contributing to one of the most prominent constraints in today’s market: the lock-in effect. Over 80% of U.S. homeowners hold mortgage rates significantly below current levels, discouraging movement and keeping housing inventory tight. Even as new listings improved earlier this year, seasonal adjustments and elevated rates have brought supply back down. Construction activity remains uneven. While there’s been some progress in completions, overall new starts remain weak. Large-scale developers remain cautious, further constraining supply and sustaining price pressure in many markets. Strategic imperatives for lenders Given this context, what should lenders prioritize? First, portfolio risk management must evolve to keep pace with borrower realities. Custom risk models, proactive account reviews and early-warning systems can help surface emerging risks, especially among vulnerable cohorts with multiple debts or high debt-to-income ratios. Second, marketing strategies must become more agile. Investing in scalable tools like Experian’s self-service prescreen and/or account review enables faster execution, real-time list building, and more efficient targeting. With refinance activity picking up, this agility is key to capturing demand before it fades. Third, lenders must lead with data. From credit performance to macroeconomic indicators, strategic decisions need to be grounded in real-time insights. Aligning marketing, servicing, and risk teams around shared, data-driven intelligence will separate the winners from the rest. Bottom line: A controlled descent, not a crash In summary, the November 2025 housing market presents a picture of controlled deceleration, not a free fall. Borrowers are under pressure, but the system remains stable. For lenders, the message is clear: act now to optimize your portfolio, accelerate outreach and prepare for cyclical demand shifts. With the right strategies, lenders can not only weather the current environment but position themselves for the next wave of opportunity. This article uses data from both Experian Credit Bureau and Mintel: Global Market Intelligence & Research Agency

After a borrower opens a mortgage, their financial profile doesn’t stay static. Credit scores, debt-to-income ratios (DTI), and annual incomes evolve—sometimes positively, sometimes negatively—depending on both the individual borrower’s specific behavior and situation, as well as broader economic conditions, including factors like unemployment and interest rates. When we factor in rising escrow costs for home insurance and property taxes, the picture becomes even more complex.   Unfortunately, traditional market data for both private label and agency MBS, as well as “servicing” datasets generally used to build analytics for whole loan strategies, contain virtually no information regarding a borrower’s current credit profile. The current pay status of the subject loan is sometimes provided.  However, credit score and DTI values (if provided at all) are as of the origination date only. No information is provided regarding the borrower’s home insurance or property tax premiums.  In other words, as a mortgage loan seasons and the borrower’s credit profile drifts as new debts are added or paid off, payments on auto loans, student loans, credit cards, even other mortgages on the subject property are made or missed, and home insurance policy costs double (or triple!) in some cases, MBS investors using traditional market data only are truly flying blind with respect to the borrowers’ current credit health. Fortunately, more complete alternatives to supplement traditional market data exist. In this article, we’ll analyze Experian’s Mortgage Loan Performance (MLP) data, a monthly-refreshed join across loan level performance, borrower credit profile and property data for all US mortgages since 2005, to explore borrowers’ credit profile drift since loan origination.  This dataset contains current credit scores, tradeline balances and performance, escrow account information, and modeled income for all borrowers.  Section 1: Credit Score Migration Since Origination — Who Improves and Who Slumps?  Using the MLP dataset, we examined current and at-origination borrower credit profiles for over 42 million mortgages originated from January 2020 through July 2025.  Segmenting the data by different mortgage products shows distinct score migration patterns since loan origination as illustrated in Figure 1:  Conventional Loans (FNMA/FHLMC):   Conventional borrowers have experienced strong positive gains in credit score since origination for the 2020–2022 vintages with average VantageScore 4.0 migration of +11 to +22 points  For the more recent 2023-2025 vintages, borrowers have experienced flat or negative drift of averaging -6 to +2 points  FHA Loans:   FHA borrowers have experienced mostly negative VantageScore 4.0 drift of -6 to -19 points, with the steepest decline to date in the 2022–2023 vintages   VA Loans:   We see a positive drift for early vintages, especially 2020 to 2022 vintages, but a slightly negative drift for more recent vintages of -1 to -4 points.  Non-Agency Loans:    Similar to conventional loans, we see a positive credit score drift for 2020–2022 vintages, turning negative for 2024–2025 with an average drift of -1.5 to -4 points  Figure 1:  Vantage 4.0 Migration Drift Since Origination[1] Key Insights: Over the past 6 years, Conventional borrowers have generally improved their credit profile post-origination, notwithstanding small dips to-date for the last couple vintages.  On the other extreme, 4 of the 6 last FHA vintages have experienced credit score deterioration to date.   Beyond the obvious increase in delinquency and default risk due to deteriorating credit scores, a borrower’s ability to refinance efficiently is also impacted by credit score deterioration. A loan’s propensity to default or voluntarily refinance is  influenced by the borrower’s current credit score, which is absent from traditional market data, though present in MLP.  In this way, current credit score is a critical field for both nonagency and agency MBS analyses. Section 2: DTI and Income   As illustrated in Figures 2 through 4, even as incomes rise, DTI often climbs faster, signaling potential borrower stress:  Example (FHLMC):  2020 Vintage: DTI +5.9 points, Income +$24K 2023 Vintage: DTI +23.5 points, Income +$28K Figure 2:  DTI and Income Drift Since Origination for all mortgages  Figure 3:  DTI and Income Drift Since Origination for Freddie Mac mortgages Figure 4:  DTI and Income Drift Since Origination for GNMA, VA mortgages  Insights: Across all loan types, on average, borrowers are earning more relative to when they opened the loan but also taking on additional obligations over time at an even faster rate, which inflates their debt-to-income ratio.  Particularly striking is the DTI drift for the 2023 GNMA VA vintage, rising over 30 points in two years!  In addition to elevated risk of delinquency and default, elevated DTI also reduces the borrower’s ability to refinance efficiently by affecting the borrower’s ability to qualify for competitive refinancing rate.  Investors relying solely on traditional market data have no vision into the borrower’s current DTI, thereby limiting their ability to model and manage both default and voluntary prepayment risk.   Section 3: Escrow Pressure—Taxes and Insurance Surge  As illustrated in Figure 5, MLP data reveals that from 2021 to 2024:   Taxes haves increased by an average of 28.8%  Home Insurance rates have increased by an average of 54.4%, becoming the fastest-growing home ownership expense within this period  Higher escrow payments squeeze borrower budgets, driving increased delinquency risk and decreased affordability. Traditional market data contains no information regarding borrowers’ tax or insurance premium burdens. Figure 5: Average escrow payment increases from 2021 to 2024 Conclusion  Score migration, evolving income and DTI, and escalating escrow & tax costs create a dynamic risk environment for borrowers. Borrowers’ constantly changing credit health drives both credit (likelihood of default) and voluntary prepayment (credit score and DTI influence both ability and incentive to refinance) risks. In this context, monitoring borrower credit and income post-origination is critical.  Traditional market data for both private label and agency MBS contains no information related to a borrower’s current credit score, DTI, income or tax & escrow burden. Experian’s Mortgage Loan Performance dataset contains all this information, at the loan level, for ~100% of the US mortgage market, enabling better segmentation, predictive modeling, and risk management for both credit and prepayment risk.  Read our previous blog about Residential Mortgage Prepayments [1] All statistics are derived from Experian's Mortgage Loan Performance (MLP) Dataset

Since mortgage rates have remained high even after recent Federal Reserve rate-cutting activity, there is limited rate incentive to refinance for the vast majority of borrowers. In the absence of significant rate incentive, borrower mobility and behavioral tendencies have become outsized drivers of both prepayment speeds and origination volumes. Unfortunately, traditional MBS market data does not contain adequate information for investors to analyze either borrower mobility or behavioral tendencies like sources of payoff funds (i.e., cash payoff, refinance of existing loan, opening of a new lien on a 2nd home, etc.).  By using Experian's Mortgage Loan Performance (MLP) Dataset, a monthly-updated time series featuring combined loan, borrower, and property-level details covering nearly the entire US mortgage market since 2005, it's possible to examine patterns in behavior for borrowers who have prepaid their loans early, such as: The proportion of paid-off borrowers who retain the subject property (“stayers”) versus those who move (“movers”); and for both of these subsets, the percentage of people who re-enter the mortgage market with a new loan ("returners") compared to those who leave the mortgage market after paying off their loan ("leavers"). Classification as returner or leaver in the charts below is based on whether the paid-off borrower opened a new mortgage loan as of the end-of-August observation date. Sources of mortgage payoff funds — what proportion of pay-off was via refinance of the subject property vs. opening a new lien on a 2nd home or investment property?  What proportion pays off in cash resultant from a sale of the subject property or cash out-of-pocket while retaining the subject property? For the set of returners, what is the typical time lapse between payoff and opening of a new mortgage, i.e., are most payoffs simultaneous or are a significant number of borrowers utilizing bridge financing, or paying off a current loan while they shop for a new home and new loan? For the set of leavers, what are the credit, income and demographic characteristics of these borrowers?  Are they leaving the mortgage market because they are unable to get a new loan due to weak credit or insufficient income? Mobility and source of payoff cash dynamics are summarized below for a sample of ~ 63,000 mortgage payoff events, drawn from MLP, which occurred from February to July 2025.   Amongst other trends, we see that approximately 70% of borrowers who paid off their loan exited the mortgage market (~40% retained property after a cash payoff + ~4% sold property and bought a new property in cash + ~24% sold property and didn’t purchase another property).  This high proportion is probably driven in part by the relative lack of rate/term refinance and purchase activity given the current rate environment. When we look at all payoffs in MLP over the same time period — 2.3 million payoff events — the ~70% proportion of leavers holds. Within this larger sample, we also break down time to re-entry for the returners.  Unsurprisingly, of the 30% returners, the vast majority open a new loan just prior to or within a month of prepayment: Since MLP contains monthly-refreshed, joined credit profile data for every mortgaged borrower, we can also examine the credit and income characteristics of leavers to determine if poor credit or limited income prohibited re-entry. This analysis reveals that leavers are generally not credit or income limited; the pool of leavers is characterized by the following average metrics: 746 current Vantage 3.0 credit score 49 years of age $99,759 current modeled income 34.8 back-end DTI The following table stratifies the leaver population by generation: Further segmentation by loan servicer, originator and borrower credit profile (e.g., dollar amount of student loan debt outstanding) and past behavior (e.g., how many mortgages has this borrower refinanced in the past?) across all tradelines are potential next steps. As the rates environment evolves, we will monitor mobility trends, the ratio of borrowers paying off loans while moving versus those staying, and how borrowers decide to finance their prepayments. In addition to rates, changes in HPI, unemployment and underwriting guidelines will influence these behaviors. By leveraging new datasets like MLP which capture not only loan performance, but also regularly refreshed credit profile, behavioral trends and property details over the entire credit lifespan of a consumer and all their tradelines, investors can incorporate a 360-degree view of loan, borrower and property into their predictive analyses.    

As fraud continues to rise in the rental housing market, tenant screening practices are evolving. In an earlier blog, I explored how Experian Observed DataTM can provide early indicators of income and employment consistency, offering screening companies a way to reduce reliance on costly or time-intensive verification methods.  In this follow-up, I explore two additional tools that strengthen the tenant screening process: Experian VerifyTM for Research Verifications and Experian Verify for Permissioned Verification's AI-powered Document Review. Used together, these solutions enable a layered approach that boosts both efficiency and prevention of fraud. Modernized Research Verifications Manual employment and income and employment checks—once the standard for tenant screening—are time-consuming and often inconsistent. Traditionally, screening companies had to reach out directly to employers and request proof of employment. While still useful, this method puts pressure on internal resources and is not always scalable.  To streamline manual verification, many organizations are partnering with third-party providers, especially those that take a digital-first approach. Outsourcing allows screening companies to delegate outreach, follow-ups, and fraud detection to specialized teams trained in document validation and employer communication. These services deliver the same insights internal teams would gather, while freeing up in-house resources for more strategic initiatives. By leveraging digital tools such as conversational AI, online forms, and automated workflows—combined with human oversight—digital-first vendors offer a more scalable and cost-effective alternative to fully manual processes. This approach not only reduces operational costs but also shortens turnaround times, helping screening companies respond faster without compromising accuracy or fraud resistance. Key advantages:[MJ1]  Reduces the burden on internal staff Ensures consistency and fraud awareness in document review Provides a reliable fallback when other verification tools return limited data This approach is especially valuable when initial data sources yield incomplete results and further confirmation is required. AI-Enhanced Document Upload and Review Another common scenario in tenant screening is the submission of income documents by the applicant, often in the form of paystubs or bank statements. Manual review of these documents is prone to error and increasingly vulnerable to sophisticated forgeries, including those generated by artificial intelligence. AI-powered document analysis tools are now helping screening companies process uploaded documents more securely and efficiently. These platforms typically work by: Allowing applicants to upload documents through a secure portal Using AI to scan for signs of tampering, fabrication, or inconsistency Returning standardized results that are easier to evaluate and compare By automating the detection of anomalies and potential fraud indicators, these tools reduce the workload for staff while improving the reliability of the review process. Benefits include: Faster review and turnaround times Improved fraud detection capabilities Greater consistency across applicants This method is especially useful when traditional employer APIs are unavailable or when screening companies need additional confirmation beyond initial data sources. A Layered Approach to Verification By combining different verification methods, screening companies can design workflows that adapt to a wide range of applicant profiles and risk scenarios. A layered strategy might include: Starting with an inexpensive source of income or employment data to identify likely matches Using AI-based document review when additional validation is needed Turning to manual research verifications only when necessary This cascading process allows screening companies to control costs while maintaining a strong defense against fraud. It also ensures that higher-cost methods are used only when the earlier steps do not provide enough confidence to proceed. Modern Challenges Require Modern Solutions Fraud in tenant screening is increasing rapidly. According to industry surveys, over 93 percent of screening companies have encountered fraud in the past year, and the majority have dealt with falsified income documentation. Traditional approaches, especially manual review, are no longer sufficient on their own. By rethinking verification strategies and incorporating modern tools like outsourced research verification and AI-enhanced document review, screening companies can reduce risk, improve efficiency, and better prioritize their resources. Learn More For organizations interested in implementing these types of verification tools, several providers—including Experian—offer services designed to support this layered approach. These solutions can help screening companies strike the right balance between cost, compliance, and fraud resistance. To learn more, visit experian.com/verify.

Income and employment verification fraud is surging in the tenant screening industry, putting traditional verification methods under intense pressure. As economic uncertainty grows and document forgery becomes more sophisticated, it's clear that legacy processes are no longer sufficient. Recent findings highlight the urgency for change. According to the NMHC Pulse Survey, 93.3% of property managers reported encountering fraud in the past year, with 84.3% citing falsified paystubs and fake employment references as the most common tactics. As AI-generated forgeries become increasingly convincing and accessible, relying solely on manual review is proving inadequate. A Shift in Strategy: Toward Smarter Income and Employment Verification Historically, tenant screeners have relied on methods such as manual document review, direct employer contact, payroll APIs, and verification of assets (VOA). While these remain important, they are no longer capable of keeping pace with today’s verification challenges. In response, many screening companies are exploring new income verification tools that offer improved fraud prevention, lower operational costs, and faster turnaround. These innovations include layered approaches that combine observed data, permissioned uploads, and automated fraud detection technologies. Introducing Experian Observed DataTM in Tenant Screening One emerging solution in the fight against rental application fraud is the use of observed data during tenant screening. This method uses collectively sourced insights to assess whether an applicant’s income and employment claims are likely to be accurate. Experian Observed Data is takes inputs from many sources including creditors, property managers and others. This type of data starts out as consumer stated data but is substantiated by third party creditors who have originated lending products and report on the performance of these products.   Although this method is not FCRA-compliant and cannot be used to approve or deny applications, it is highly effective as an early step in the screening process. Some sources of Experian Observed Data include a confidence score that can help screeners assess how closely an applicant’s stated information aligns with observed trends and can help screening companies to better assess their prioritization queue to determine if more data points are needed. Why Experian Observed Data Matters To combat fraud without driving up costs or slowing down the tenant screening process, screening companies need reliable, efficient tools. Experian Observed Data supports this need by offering a faster, more scalable approach to assessing risk. Key benefits include: Early detection of discrepancies in reported income or employment The ability to prioritize high-risk applications for further review A more cost-effective alternative before committing to premium verification services For instance, if an applicant has a strong credit report and clean background check, and Experian Observed Data supports their stated income, further verification may be unnecessary. If inconsistencies are flagged, screening companies can escalate to tools such as AI document analysis or direct outreach. Fraud Prevention Through Smarter Workflows The use of Experian Observed Data also aligns with a broader shift toward AI document fraud detection and layered verification strategies. Instead of applying the same tools to every application, screening companies can now implement decision trees that use lower-cost tools first, escalating only when risk or uncertainty increases. This adaptive approach is particularly relevant as screener companies strive to improve accuracy and efficiency at scale. By deploying Experian Observed Data as a first step, tenant screening professionals can better allocate resources while remaining vigilant against fraud Future Proofing Verificaiton As the income and employment verification landscape evolves, screening companies must move beyond legacy methods and adopt tools that are responsive to today’s challenges. Experian Observed Data provides a scalable, low friction starting point that supports smarter decision-making and better fraud detection. Coming to our next blog: We will explore how manual research verifications and AI-powered document upload solutions enhance the effectiveness of modern income verification tools, creating a more resilient and adaptable tenant screening process.  

Executive Summary The July 2025 housing market reveals a landscape of shifting consumer behaviors, evolving lender strategies, and continued strength in borrower performance—especially within home equity. Origination volumes have dipped slightly, but direct marketing, particularly through Invitation to Apply (ITA) campaigns, is accelerating. As key players exit the space, gaps are opening across both marketing and origination, creating clear opportunities for agile institutions. This phase signals both caution and potential. The winners will be those who refine their marketing, sharpen segmentation, and deploy smarter risk monitoring in real time. TL;DR Risk Profile: Mortgage and HELOC delinquencies remain low. Slight increases in 90+ DPD are not yet cause for concern. Mortgage Originations: Modestly down, but marketing remains aggressive. Invitation to Apply (ITA) volumes outpacing prescreen. Home Equity Originations: Stable originations, competitive marketing volumes. ITA volumes outpacing prescreen similar to mortgage. Opportunity: Targeted direct mail and refined segmentation are growth levers in both mortgage and home equity. Risk Environment: Resilient Yet Watchful Experian’s July data shows both mortgage and home equity delinquencies hovering at historically low levels. Early-stage delinquencies dropped in June, while late-stage (90+ days past due) nudged upward—still below thresholds signaling broader distress. HELOCs followed a similar path. Early-stage movement was slightly elevated but well within acceptable ranges, reinforcing borrower stability even in a high-rate, high-tariff environment. Takeaway: Creditworthiness remains strong, especially for real estate–backed portfolios, but sustained monitoring of 90+ DPD trends is smart risk management. Home Equity: Volume Holds, Competition Resets Home equity lending is undergoing a major strategic reshuffle. With a key market participant exiting the space, a significant share of both marketing and originations is now in flux. What’s happening: Direct mail volumes in home equity nearly match those in first mortgages—despite the latter holding larger balances. ITA volumes alone topped 8 million in May 2025. Total tappable home equity stands near $29.5 trillion, underscoring a massive opportunity.(source: Experian property data.) Lenders willing to recalibrate quickly can unlock high-intent borrowers—especially as more consumers seek cash flow flexibility without refinancing into higher rates.   Direct Mail and Offer Channel Trends The continued surge in ITA campaigns illustrates a broader market pivot. Lenders are favoring: Controlled timing and messaging Multichannel alignment Improved compliance flexibility May 2025 Mail Volumes: Offer Type Mortgage Home Equity ITA 29.2M 25.8M Prescreen 15.6M 19.0M Strategic Insights for Lenders 1. Invest in Personalized Offers Drive better response rates with prescreen or ITA campaigns. Leverage data assets like Experian ConsumerView for ITA’s for robust behavioral and lifestyle segmentation. For prescreen, achieve pinpoint-personalization with offers built on propensity models, property attributes, and credit characteristics. 2. Seize the Home Equity Opening Use urgency-based messaging to attract consumers searching for fast access to equity—without the complexity of a full refi. Additionally, as mentioned above, leverage propensity, credit, and property (i.e. equity) data to optimize your marketing spend. 3. Strengthen Risk Controls Even in a low-delinquency environment, vigilance matters. Account Review campaigns, custom scorecards, and real-time monitoring help stay ahead of rising 90+ DPD segments. 4. Benchmark Smarter Competitive intelligence is key. Evaluate offer volumes, audience segmentation, and marketing timing to refine your next campaign. FAQ Q: What does the exit of a major home equity player mean? A: It leaves a significant gap in both marketing activity and borrower targeting. Lenders able to act quickly can capture outsized share in a category rich with equity and demand. Q: How should lenders respond to the evolving risk profile? A: Continue to monitor performance closely, but focus on forward-looking indicators like trended data, income verification, and alternative credit signals. Conclusion The housing market in July 2025 presents a clear message: the fundamentals are sound, but the strategies are shifting. Those ready to optimize outreach by making smarter use of data will seize a disproportionate share in both mortgage and home equity. Want to stay ahead? Connect with Experian Mortgage Solutions for the insights, tools, and strategies to grow in today’s evolving lending environment.  

In 2025, home equity lending has re-emerged as a central theme in the American financial landscape—an evolution not driven by hype, but by hard data, economic realities, and consumer behavior. As homeowners grapple with inflation, rising consumer debt, and a persistent affordability crisis in housing, the home equity line of credit (HELOC) is gaining traction as a practical, flexible, and often misunderstood financial solution.

First mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are increasing, particularly in later stages of delinquency. Home equity delinquencies remain low, signaling stability in that segment. Mortgage originations are up, with refinances beginning to recover. HELOC direct mail offers have surpassed first mortgage offers, driven by aggressive marketing and AVM-based personalization. Lenders using property data in marketing outperform peers relying on volume alone. Strategic focus for lenders: tighten risk analytics, integrate data into marketing, and adopt AVM-based personalization.

In the latest episode of "The Chrisman Commentary" podcast, Experian experts Ken Tromer, Director, Mortgage Market Engagement, and Ted Wentzel, Senior Product Marketing Manager, talk about why price transparency is important in the verification process, and how Experian Verify ensures it. Listen to the full episode for all the details and tune in to the previous episode to learn more about reducing mortgage pipeline fallout and improving loan pull-through rate. Listen to podcast

In the latest episode of “The Chrisman Commentary” podcast, Experian experts Joy Mina, Director of Product Commercialization, and David Fay, Solution Consultant, talk about reducing mortgage pipeline fallout and improving loan pull-through rate. Listen to the full episode for all the details and check out the previous episode to explore how lenders can navigate a tight mortgage market, from rates to equity. Listen to podcast

As data breaches become an ever-growing threat to businesses, the role of employees in maintaining cybersecurity has never been more critical. Did you know that 82% of data breaches involve the human element1 , such as phishing, stolen credentials, or social engineering tactics? These statistics reveal a direct connection between employee identity theft and business vulnerabilities. In this blog, we’ll explore why protecting your employees’ identities is essential to reducing data breach risk, how employee-focused identity protection programs, and specifically employee identity protection, improve both cybersecurity and employee engagement, and how businesses can implement comprehensive solutions to safeguard sensitive data and enhance overall workforce well-being. The Rising Challenge: Data Breaches and Employee Identity Theft The past few years have seen an exponential rise in data breaches. According to the Identity Theft Resource Center, there were 1,571 data compromises in the first half of 2024, impacting more than 1.1 billion individuals – a 490% increase year over year2. A staggering proportion of these breaches originated from compromised employee credentials or phishing attacks. Explore Experian's Employee Benefits Solutions The Link Between Employee Identity Theft and Cybersecurity Risks Phishing and Social EngineeringPhishing attacks remain one of the top strategies used by cybercriminals. These attacks often target employees by exploiting personal information stolen through identity theft. For example, a cybercriminal who gains access to an employee's compromised email or social accounts can use this information to craft realistic phishing messages, tricking them into divulging sensitive company credentials. Compromised Credentials as Entry PointsCompromised employee credentials were responsible for 16% of breaches and were the costliest attack vector, averaging $4.5 million per breach3. When an employee’s identity is stolen, it can give hackers a direct line to your company’s network, jeopardizing sensitive data and infrastructure. The Cost of DowntimeBeyond the financial impact, data breaches disrupt operations, erode customer trust, and harm your brand. For businesses, the average downtime from a breach can last several weeks – time that could otherwise be spent growing revenue and serving clients. Why Businesses Need to Prioritize Employee Identity Protection Protecting employee identities isn’t just a personal benefit – it’s a strategic business decision. Here are three reasons why identity protection for employees is essential to your cybersecurity strategy: 1. Mitigate Human Risk in Cybersecurity Employee mistakes, often resulting from phishing scams or misuse of credentials, are a leading cause of breaches. By equipping employees with identity protection services, businesses can significantly reduce the likelihood of stolen information being exploited by fraudsters and cybercriminals. 2. Boost Employee Engagement and Financial Wellness Providing identity protection as part of an employee benefits package signals that you value your workforce’s security and well-being. Beyond cybersecurity, offering such protections can enhance employee loyalty, reduce stress, and improve productivity. Employers who pair identity protection with financial wellness tools can empower employees to monitor their credit, secure their finances, and protect against fraud, all of which contribute to a more engaged workforce. 3. Enhance Your Brand Reputation A company’s cybersecurity practices are increasingly scrutinized by customers, stakeholders, and regulators. When you demonstrate that you prioritize not just protecting your business, but also safeguarding your employees’ identities, you position your brand as a leader in security and trustworthiness. Practical Strategies to Protect Employee Identities and Reduce Data Breach Risk How can businesses take actionable steps to mitigate risks and protect their employees? Here are some best practices: Offer Comprehensive Identity Protection Solutions A robust identity protection program should include: Real-time monitoring for identity theft Alerts for suspicious activity on personal accounts Data and device protection to protect personal information and devices from identity theft, hacking and other online threats Fraud resolution services for affected employees Credit monitoring and financial wellness tools Leading providers like Experian offer customizable employee benefits packages that provide proactive identity protection, empowering employees to detect and resolve potential risks before they escalate. Invest in Employee Education and Training Cybersecurity is only as strong as your least-informed employee. Provide regular training sessions and provide resources to help employees recognize phishing scams, understand the importance of password hygiene, and learn how to avoid oversharing personal data online. Implement Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA) MFA adds an extra layer of security, requiring employees to verify their identity using multiple credentials before accessing sensitive systems. This can drastically reduce the risk of compromised credentials being misused. Partner with a Trusted Identity Protection Provider Experian’s suite of employee benefits solutions combines identity protection with financial wellness tools, helping your employees stay secure while also boosting their financial confidence. Only Experian can offer these integrated solutions with unparalleled expertise in both identity protection and credit monitoring. Conclusion: Identity Protection is the Cornerstone of Cybersecurity The rising tide of data breaches means that businesses can no longer afford to overlook the role of employee identity in cybersecurity. By prioritizing identity protection for employees, organizations can reduce the risk of costly breaches and also create a safer, more engaged, and financially secure workforce. Ready to protect your employees and your business? Take the next step toward safeguarding your company’s future. Learn more about Experian’s employee benefits solutions to see how identity protection and financial wellness tools can transform your workplace security and employee engagement. Learn more 1 2024 Experian Data Breach Response Guide 2 Identity Theft Resource Center. H1 2024 Data Breach Analysis 3 2023 IBM Cost of a Data Breach Report

Whether consumers are shopping for new credit or experiencing financial stress, monitoring their behavior is crucial — even more so in an ever-changing economy. Our latest infographic explores economic trends impacting consumers’ financial behaviors and how Experian’s Risk and Retention TriggersSM enable lenders to detect early signs of risk or churn. Key highlights include: Credit card balances climbed to $1.17 trillion in Q3 2024. As prices of goods and services remain elevated, consumers may continue to experience financial stress, potentially leading to higher delinquency rates. Increasing customer retention rates by 5% can boost profits by 25% to 95%. View the infographic to learn how Risk and Retention Triggers can help you advance your portfolio management strategy. Access infographic

In 2024, the housing market defied recession fears, with mortgage and home equity growth driven by briefly lower interest rates, strong equity positions, generally positive economic indicators, and stock market appreciation. This performance is notable because, in 2023, economists’ favorite hobby was predicting a recession in 2024. Following a period of elevated inflation, driven largely by loose monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy, and supply chain disruptions brought on by COVID, economists were certain that the US economy would shrink. However, the economy continued outperforming expectations, even as unemployment rose modestly (Figure 2) and inflation cooled (Figure 3). Source: FRED (Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3). So, a good economy is good for the mortgage and home equity markets, right? Generally speaking, this statement was true. As monitored by Experian’s credit database, mortgage originations increased by approximately thirty percent year over year as of November 2024 (Figure 4), and Q3 ’24 pre-tax profit for Independent Mortgage Banks (IMBs) averaged $701 per loan.1 So, business in home lending is good — certainly better than it was during the period when the Fed was raising rates, origination volumes shrank as opposed to grew, and IMB profit per loan turned negative. Source: Experian Ascend Insights Dashboard. What constituted this growth in mortgage lending? As we all know, the Fed has lowered interest rates by 100bps since they started reducing rates in September. The market had priced in the September cut weeks prior to the actual announcement (Figure 5), and the market enjoyed a spike in refinance volume as a result (Figure 6). However, in the lead-up to and following the US presidential election, interest rates spiked back up due to the market’s expectations around future economic activity, which will dampen pressure on refinance volumes even after the recent additional rate drop. The impact of further rate drops on mortgage rates is unclear, and refinance volume still constitutes only around three percent of overall origination volume. Source: Figure 5, Figure 6 (Experian Ascend Insights Dashboard). The shift to a purchase-driven housing market What does this all mean? Our view is that pockets of refinance volume (rate and term, VA, FHA, cashout) are available to those lenders with a sophisticated targeting strategy. However, the data also very clearly indicates that this market is still very much a purchase market in terms of opportunity for originations growth. This position should not surprise long-time mortgage lenders, given that purchase volume has always constituted a significant majority of origination volume. However, this market is a different purchase market than lenders may be used to. This purchase market is different because of unprecedented statistics about the housing market itself. The average age of a first-time homebuyer recently reached a record high of 38. The average age of overall homebuyers in November of this year similarly jumped to a new record high of 56, with homes being “wildly unaffordable for young people.” Twenty-six percent of home purchases are all-cash, another record high, and homeowners have an aggregate net equity position of $17.6 trillion, fueling those all-cash purchases. The market is expensive both from an interest rate perspective and a housing price-level perspective, and those trends are driving who is buying homes and how they are buying them.2 Opportunities for lenders in 2025 What do these housing market dynamics mean for lenders? To begin with, lenders should not spend money marketing mortgages to consumers in their 50s and 60s with large equity positions. These consumers are likely to be in the 26 percent all-cash buyer cohort, and that money will be wasted since mortgages are no longer so cheap that even cash-rich buyers would take them. Further, this equity-rich generation has children, and nearly 40% of those children borrow from the bank of mom and dad to purchase their first home. Since roughly a quarter (albeit a shrinking quarter) of homebuyers are first-time homebuyers, and since 40% of those rely on help from parents to facilitate that purchase, it may make sense for lenders to identify those consumers with 1) children and 2) significant equity positions and to offer products like cash-out refinances or home equity loans/lines to help facilitate those first-time purchases. Data is critical to executing these kinds of novel marketing strategies. It is one thing to develop these marketing and growth strategies in principle and another entirely to efficiently find the consumers that meet the criteria and give them a compelling offer. Consider home equity originations. As Figure 7 illustrates, HELOC originations are strong but have completely stalled from a growth rate perspective. As Figure 8 illustrates, this is despite the market's continued growth in direct mail marketing investment. Although HELOC origination volumes are a fraction of mortgage—around $27b per month for HELOC versus $182b per month for mortgage—there are significantly more home equity direct mail offers being sent per month (39 million) for home equity products as there are for mortgage (31 million) as of October ’24.3 This all means that although many lenders have wised up to the home equity opportunity to the point of saturating the market with offers, few have successfully leveraged targeting data and analytics to craft sufficiently compelling offers to those consumers to convert those marketing leads into booked loans. Source: Figure 7 (Experian Ascend Insights Dashboard), Figure 8 (Mintel). Adapting to a resilient housing market In summary, the housing market, comprised of mortgage and home equity products, has experienced persistent growth over the past year. Many who are reading this note will have benefitted from that growth. However, as we have identified, in many respects housing market growth has 1) been concentrated to some key borrower demographics and 2) many lenders are investing in marketing campaigns that are not efficiently reaching or convincing that key housing demographic to book loans, whether it be a home equity or mortgage product. As such, as we move into 2025, Experian advises our clients to focus on the following three themes to ensure they benefit from this trend of growth into the new year: Ensure you effectively differentiate your marketing targeting, collateral, and offers for the various demographics in the market. Ensure your origination experiences for mortgage and home equity products are modern and efficient. Lenders who force all borrowers through a painful, manual legacy process will waste marketing dollars and experience pipeline fallout. Although the market is growing, other lenders are coming for your current customers. They could be coming for purchase activity, refinance opportunities, or they may be using home equity products to encroach on your existing mortgage relationship. As such, capitalizing on growth in 2025 is not merely about gaining new customers; it is also about retaining your existing book of business using high-quality data and analytics. Learn more 1 Although December numbers are available for year-over-year comparison, we excluded them due to the holiday period's strong seasonality patterns. 2 The Case-Shiller index recently topped out at record levels. 3 Mintel/Comperemedia data.

Transformations in today’s U.S. rental market reflect changing economic and market forces. These dynamic times present challenges and opportunities for property managers and landlords seeking more stability and consistency in their property occupancies. The real estate industry responded positively to the Federal Reserve's recent announcement to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, marking a favorable shift from previous actions that kept rates steady. However, uncertainty lingers about the extent and pace of changes in the residential real estate market, including the rental and buying sectors. Experts remain optimistic, predicting improvements as the market heads into next year's busy season. Landlords and property managers looking to attract more stable renters need to understand macro- and micro-market trends, renter demographics and preferences, and other information impacting their specific locales. Experian Housing published its 2024 report on the U.S. rental market, which provides data-driven insights into the current rental landscape. Experts examined today’s renter population, current market trends, the state of housing development, and the market’s future. Who is today’s renter? Today’s renter is still navigating financial constraints and potential marketplace affordability challenges. While location-specific information does influence the affordability of renting versus buying a home, on average, affordability remains an important factor guiding consumer decision-making. Our latest rental report highlights a notable shift in the rental market, with a growing number of younger renters and a decline in the average annual income among renters. According to Experian’s RentBureau®1, over 30% of renters are Generation Z—the youngest adult demographic. Expanding this to include individuals under 34 years old, younger renters now represent over half of all renters in the United States. Experian’s research highlights a shift in rental spending trends, showing the average income for renters now at $52,600. RentBureau data underscores the evolving financial landscape, with rent-to-income (RTI) ratios reflecting a growing commitment to housing. On average, individuals allocate 44.1% of their income to rent, while low-to-moderate-income households dedicate 52.5%. These figures exceed the traditional guideline of keeping rent within 30% of gross monthly income, underscoring the significant economic pressures faced by renters, particularly those with low-to-moderate incomes, as they navigate rising housing costs and limited affordability in the current market. This reality highlights the urgent need for broader systemic solutions to address housing availability and affordability challenges. What is happening in the rental market? Rental market trends reflect several factors, including changes in renter demographics, interest rates, housing supply and demand, and the economy. Overall, vacancy rates have stayed relatively low, which has resulted in rising rent prices, although there are signs of flattening. With fewer housing options available, many renters stay put for longer, which also contributes to availability and affordability. More renters, over 50% of all renters (a 10% increase over May 2023), are paying $1,500 or more in monthly rent, and the nationwide average rent stands at $1,713. A regional look offers greater specific insights for landlords and property managers, which is critical for truly understanding the marketplace. In 2024, 43 of 50 states have RTI ratios above the suggested guideline of 30%. California has the highest median RTI at just over 46%, followed by Massachusetts, Florida, Washington, and New Jersey. Other states facing increasing RTI ratios include Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado, Texas, and Nevada. These high ratios negatively affect affordability. At the same time, Experian Housing research indicates that over 92% of renters hold a single lease over two years. Data also shows 6.7% of renters with two leases in 24 months and others moving three or more times in this timeframe. Older generations, surprisingly, are moving more now than in recent years. Where is development headed? High mortgage rates are constraining housing development, especially for affordable entry-level homes. Roughly 50% fewer starter homes are being built, and multifamily new construction also faces constraints. With that said, multi-family housing units already under construction are coming to market. These units are generally high-end, contributing to increased rental prices. The supply coming to the market is higher-priced due to greater construction costs across the board. Contributors to the rising costs include builds in pricier metropolitan areas as well as features and modern amenities sought after by younger renters. The U.S. Census Bureau reports a slight uptick in new home construction since July 2023. How is the future looking? The U.S. economy is expected to remain stable, which should benefit renters and landlords alike. The outlook for the rental market in 2024 and 2025 remains optimistic with inflation down and the Fed rate cut, but many other factors come into play, specifically, overall economic health and the state of the employment market. For renters, the best tact is to set goals to improve their overall credit profiles and opportunities in the housing market. Individuals benefit from rent reporting. Experian RentBureau helps renters build credit profiles and open the best opportunities for the rental market and moving to the first-time homebuyer market. With rental housing still in high demand, property managers and landlords should focus on tenant screening, rent reporting, and fraud prevention as part of their risk management strategies. Focusing on these areas will increase the chances of finding quality, longer-term tenants. To learn more about the state of the U.S. rental market, download Experian Housing’s 2024 rental report. Access report 1 RentBureau® is the largest rental payment database that contains more than 36 million renter profiles. While RentBureau doesn’t represent the total U.S. rental market population, internal studies reveal RentBureau data aligns closely to historical U.S. Census data studies, which provides confidence in the deeper understandings aggregated in the report.