Navigating the 2026 housing landscape: Key insights from Experian’s latest report 

by Upavan Gupta 4 min read February 9, 2026

As the U.S. housing market enters a new phase, the 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report from Experian provides a data-driven overview for lenders, servicers, and property managers. This article synthesizes findings related to mortgage originations, affordability pressures, home equity utilization, credit risk, and generational sentiment, with implications for lender strategy in 2026 (Experian, 2026). 

Mortgage market in flux: Opportunity amid transition 

The mortgage market presents mixed signals. Rate moderation in late 2025 contributed to renewed demand, while the product mix continued to evolve. Conventional loans remained dominant at approximately 72% of originations, yet Veterans Affairs (VA) loans experienced the highest growth between 2023 and 2025, reaching 10.8% market share (Experian, 2026). 

At the same time, second mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) gained momentum as homeowners sought liquidity without refinancing out of historically low interest rates. This trend reflects growing demand for equity-based solutions that preserve favorable first-mortgage terms (Experian, 2026). 

 Pull-through challenges: Only 34% of inquiries become loans 

Conversion efficiency remains a key challenge. Only 34% of first-mortgage hard credit inquiries resulted in a completed mortgage origination, highlighting friction between borrower interest and loan fulfillment (Experian, 2026). 

Consumer research reinforces this gap. In an Experian survey, 50% of respondents reported that understanding what they could qualify for would be the most helpful step in their homeownership journey, suggesting that improved prequalification tools could materially increase pull-through rates (Experian, 2026). 

 Affordability pressure goes beyond the mortgage 

Between 2021 and 2025, property taxes increased by 15.2%, while non-tax escrow costs—primarily homeowners’ insurance—rose by 67.4% nationwide (Experian, 2026). 

State-level variation further complicates affordability assessments. Florida recorded the highest average non-tax escrow expenses at $430 per month largely due to sharp increase in home insurance costs. California, by contrast, exhibited the highest average property tax burden at $626, largely driven by elevated home values despite lower statutory tax rates (Experian, 2026). These dynamics underscore the importance of holistic cost modeling, particularly for first-time buyers. 

 Home equity: A lender’s growth frontier 

Home equity remains a significant growth opportunity. An estimated 96.2 million consumers reside in owner-occupied homes, with substantial portions owning their homes outright or holding more than 20% equity (Experian, 2026). HELOC usage is increasing, particularly among younger borrowers, 50% of whom utilize more than 60% of their available HELOC credit, compared with 36% of older borrowers (Experian, 2026). 

Market share shifts are also notable. Fintech lenders experienced a 140.2% increase in HELOC originations from 2023 to 2025, significantly outpacing banks and credit unions. These gains suggest that digital-first experiences and streamlined workflows are increasingly decisive factors for borrowers (Experian, 2026). 

 Risk and resilience: What credit and property data reveal 

Overall delinquency rates eased slightly; however, near-prime and prime borrowers demonstrated early signs of stress, particularly within first-mortgage portfolios (Experian, 2026). 

Property-level risk is also intensifying. Flood exposure increased by 3.7% nationally, with 26.4% of Florida homes identified as at risk. Rising exposure has contributed to escalating insurance costs, further affecting affordability and credit performance (Experian, 2026). 

From a credit hierarchy perspective, secured debt—especially mortgages and auto loans—continued to show the lowest delinquency rates. In contrast, student loans and credit cards exhibited higher delinquency risk, particularly among financially constrained renters and homeowners (Experian, 2026). 

 Generational optimism versus macroeconomic constraints 

Despite affordability headwinds, consumer optimism persists. Approximately 47% of renters believe they will be ready to purchase a home within four years, increasing to 67% within eight years (Experian, 2026). 

Structural constraints remain significant. Roughly 70% of homeowners hold mortgage rates below 6%, contributing to limited housing inventory as current owners remain rate-locked. With 30-year mortgage rates still above that level and a softening labor market, even modest increases in unemployment could further pressure affordability (Experian, 2026). 

 Implications for lenders 

Experian’s analysis highlights several strategic priorities for housing industry stakeholders: 

Expand access to credit. Incorporate alternative data sources, such as cash-flow analytics and rental payment history, to responsibly extend credit to underserved but qualified borrowers (Experian, 2026). 

Capitalize on equity demand. Develop HELOC offerings that are fast, flexible, and digitally enabled to meet the needs of equity-rich, rate-locked homeowners (Experian, 2026). 

Enhance risk precision. Integrate credit, property, and behavioral data to identify emerging risk early, particularly among near-prime segments, and to support more accurate pricing and portfolio management (Experian, 2026). 

 Conclusion 

The 2026 housing market reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic pressure, shifting borrower behavior, and growing reliance on home equity solutions. Agility and data-driven decision-making will be essential for lenders navigating this environment. The 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report offers critical insight to support growth while managing risk in an evolving landscape (Experian, 2026). 

📘 Access the full report hereExperian 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report 

References 

Experian. (2026). 2026 state of the U.S. housing market report. Experian. 

 

 

Related Posts

Fuel Type Choices Continue to Reshape Vehicle Registration Trends

Electric vehicle (EV) registration growth has become a common topic of discussion throughout the automotive industry for the last few years, but the bigger story may lie in what consumers are choosing when they return to market for their next vehicle. According to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q1 2026, the bulk of EV owners (72.6%) purchased another EV, while 17.7% replaced their EV with a gas-powered vehicle and 5.6% switched to a hybrid this quarter. A similar trend was seen in hybrid owners, as 54.9% remained loyal to the fuel type through the quarter, while 32.7% replaced their hybrid with a gas-powered vehicle and 7.5% switched to an EV. Notably, 78.2% of consumers with gas-powered vehicles stayed with the same fuel type, with 5.6% swapping their gas vehicle for a hybrid and only 4.5% transitioning to an EV through Q1 2026. These purchase styles suggest that while most consumers are not making a direct leap from gasoline to fully electric vehicles, some are beginning their electrified journey through hybrid ownership. At the same time, the high rate of fuel-type loyalty across all powertrain categories highlights the importance of the ownership experience. Consumers who are satisfied with their current vehicle can often be inclined to remain with the same segment rather than exploring alternative fuel types. New vehicle registration trends reflect changing consumer preferences Looking at the new vehicle registration data from a broader level, gas-powered vehicles experienced a slight uptick, coming in at 69.5% through Q1 2026, from 67.3% last year. Meanwhile, hybrids continue to grow, going from 12.1% to 13.5% year-over-year while EVs steadily decline from 7.8% last year to 5.6% this quarter. As consumers weigh their next vehicle purchase, many seem to be sticking with the standard gas-powered choice, and others are finding a happy medium in hybrid vehicles. And while EVs receive much of the industry’s attention, buyers are exploring alternatives that allow them to adopt the electrified vehicles incrementally rather than all at once. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q1 2026 presentation on demand.

Published: June 12, 2026 by John Howard
Rewriting the Road Ahead with Longer Loan Terms and Increased Refinancing Options

The automotive market is entering a new phase defined not just by what consumers are buying, but by how they’re choosing to finance it. According to Experian Automotive’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q1 2026, nearly one-third (35.55%) of all new vehicle loans now stretch more than six years, up from 30.83% in Q1 2025. Similarly on the used side, 31.54% of loans extended more than six years, an increase from 28.60% last year. The shift highlights why affordability is reshaping how consumers are financing their vehicles, particularly in larger and higher-priced vehicles. Refinancing gains traction as interest rates stabilize In addition to longer-term loans, consumers are becoming increasingly deliberate with their financing decisions and managing monthly payments as refinancing activity has gained momentum. For instance, consumers who refinanced this quarter lowered their interest rate by 2.2% and saved an average of $81 on their monthly payment. Credit unions, in particular, continued to play a major role in helping consumers secure more affordable payment options. In Q1 2025, credit unions accounted for the lion’s share of automotive refinancing at 63.43%, from 62.31% a year ago. By comparison, banks went from 23.51% to 22.59% year-over-year. Furthermore, those who refinanced with a credit union saved an average of $101 this quarter, whereas those who refinanced with banks saved $60. Expanding credit access through flexible financing Another notable trend this quarter was the incessant growth in subprime financing as credit accessibility across the market continues to increase. In the first quarter of this year, subprime borrowers made up 15.75% of total vehicle financing, from 14.40% last year. For new vehicles in particular, the subprime market went from 5.61% to 6.88% year-over-year, while subprime in used vehicle financing grew to 20.60% this quarter, from 19.36% a year ago. Increased activity in the subprime segment highlights continued confidence in the automotive market and underscores the importance of expanded financing options. As consumers seek greater flexibility with financing decisions that fit their lifestyle, lenders and dealers have the opportunity to approach them with more personalized solutions. These trends are helping keep both new and used vehicle markets moving forward, while creating new opportunities for consumers to manage payments and purchase confidently. To learn more about automotive finance trends, view the full State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q1 2026 presentation on demand.

Published: June 2, 2026 by Melinda Zabritski
Staying Competitive After Trigger Leads Evolve: A Roadmap For Lenders

Trigger leads have long been the preferred solution for identifying high-intent mortgage borrowers. But with the implementation of the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA), which introduces new limitations and consumer protections around trigger leads, that playbook will need to shift. Now, lenders are quickly facing a pivotal shift in how they discover, engage, and convert prospective borrowers into customers. The industry now stands at a crossroads. Lenders who adapt early—leaning into predictive tools, consent-based engagement, and smarter prescreening—will redefine borrower acquisition in a more privacy-centric era.  HPPA: A structural change to mortgage marketing  The HPPA amends the Fair Credit Reporting Act by significantly restricting the use of mortgage inquiries for prescreen purposes. As of March 5, 2026, credit bureaus may only provide or utilize mortgage inquiries to:  End users with explicit borrower consent  The originator of the consumer’s current mortgage  The servicer of the consumer’s current mortgage  An insured depository institution or credit union where the consumer has an existing account  While these exemptions may provide continuity for banks and credit unions, many mortgage brokers and nonbank lenders will need to overhaul their prescreen practices—or risk being cut off entirely from a previously high-performing acquisition channel.  Why this isn’t just a compliance shift—It’s a strategic recalibration  Mortgage triggers in prescreen allow lenders to react instantly to consumer intent. Lenders rely on a prompt and convincing narrative to entice applicants to switch lenders. Mortgage inquiry triggers are effective and were, therefore, a prospecting strategy for many lenders. Recent legislative changes significantly restrict the availability of these inquiry triggers, and impacted lenders are focusing on a more intentional prospecting strategy to compete.   Without these mortgage triggers in prescreen, lenders need to ask:  Who are we trying to reach?  What early signals can we act on?  How do we earn permission and attention before a mortgage inquiry ever happens?  Transforming the funnel: From reaction to anticipation  The shift in mortgage inquiry-based prescreen isn’t the end of high-intent lead targeting. It’s the beginning of a more strategic and intentional approach—one that leverages earlier indicators of mortgage readiness and focuses on building relationships, not just closing transactions.  Here’s where the momentum is evolving, creating a new and smarter funnel:  Prescreen marketing: Using credit and behavioral attributes to help identify consumers who meet specific lending criteria before they signal active intent.  Predictive modeling: Leveraging propensity scores or custom models to prioritize outreach based on conversion likelihood.  Consent-based engagement: Implementing compliant mechanisms to capture and manage borrower opt-ins at scale.  The power of predictive modeling  According to recent industry interviews, propensity modeling is emerging as one of the most effective replacements for trigger-based prescreen. These models analyze hundreds of credit attributes—such as utilization, account mix, account age, and depth—to help identify consumers statistically more likely to seek a mortgage.  For lenders just beginning to use predictive modeling, off-the-shelf models can be a quick way to identify potential borrowers. For example, when layering propensity scores on top of credit eligibility, which can improve borrower targeting, many lenders see an increase in open mortgage loan rates.  Meanwhile, custom-built models, which analyze a lender’s own campaign performance over time, offer the highest level of precise targeting. These models isolate the attributes most predictive of conversions within a specific product mix—optimizing not just volume, but fit.  Speed without traditional triggers? It’s possible  One of the biggest concerns among lenders is maintaining the speed historically enabled by trigger leads. But that concern may be overblown.  Self-service prescreen platforms now allow marketers to generate qualified lead lists in as little as 24 hours, enabling rapid response during rate drops, competitive shifts, or seasonal demand spikes.   For those new to prescreening, batch campaigns still offer value, especially with analyst support.   Don’t overlook retention  In an era of intense acquisition competition, retention becomes a key differentiator.  Lenders who monitor property status, cash flow, and consumer credit behavior can proactively identify when an existing borrower is likely to list, refinance, or exit. Armed with that intelligence, lenders can re-engage with the borrower at the right moment—sometimes before a competitor is considered or contacted.  This level of behavioral intelligence may soon separate proactive lenders from reactive ones.  Actions instead of reactions  The evolution of trigger-based prescreen doesn’t just require new tools; it demands new thinking. Lenders should begin by auditing their current pipelines and determining:  What percentage of our acquisition is dependent on triggers?  What share of our book falls under the HPPA exemptions?  How will we scale compliant opt-in collection?  Are our current prescreen or modeling capabilities future-ready?  Those who answer these questions today—and act on them—won’t just be in compliance with the new laws, they’ll lead in a transformed market. Lenders should also be asking:   Do we have the infrastructure to collect and act on borrower consent?  Are our acquisition teams equipped to run prescreen campaigns — both batch and self-service?  What predictive models are we using (or could we use) to prioritize leads?  Are we proactively monitoring our portfolio to catch retention risks early?  How are we preparing our sales teams for longer, more consultative buying journeys?  Conclusion  The HPPA signals a shift away from relying on passive, inquiry-based prescreen acquisition and the beginning of smarter, more strategic engagement with potential borrowers. Lenders who embrace this transition early will find themselves not just compliant, but competitive—with deeper borrower insights, better conversion rates, and stronger long-term customer relationships.  The market is moving. The only question is: will you lead the change or chase it?  Citation  Experian. (2025, November). Interview: How the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act is reshaping mortgage marketing—and what lenders should do now [transcript]. Experian Mortgage Insights. Insights based on lender feedback, campaign performance data, and analysis of prescreen marketing strategies and predictive modeling outcomes were gathered from Experian client engagements and internal mortgage analytics between May and October 2025. Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act timeline and legal context referenced from legislation signed September 5, 2025, with implementation beginning March 5, 2026.   

Published: April 22, 2026 by Ivan Ahmed

Request More Information

Subscribe to our Housing Blog

Enter your name and email for the latest updates.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Subscribe to the Housing Blog

Receive updates from Experian Housing
Subscribe