Navigating the 2026 housing landscape: Key insights from Experian’s latest report 

by Upavan Gupta 4 min read February 9, 2026

As the U.S. housing market enters a new phase, the 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report from Experian provides a data-driven overview for lenders, servicers, and property managers. This article synthesizes findings related to mortgage originations, affordability pressures, home equity utilization, credit risk, and generational sentiment, with implications for lender strategy in 2026 (Experian, 2026). 

Mortgage market in flux: Opportunity amid transition 

The mortgage market presents mixed signals. Rate moderation in late 2025 contributed to renewed demand, while the product mix continued to evolve. Conventional loans remained dominant at approximately 72% of originations, yet Veterans Affairs (VA) loans experienced the highest growth between 2023 and 2025, reaching 10.8% market share (Experian, 2026). 

At the same time, second mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) gained momentum as homeowners sought liquidity without refinancing out of historically low interest rates. This trend reflects growing demand for equity-based solutions that preserve favorable first-mortgage terms (Experian, 2026). 

 Pull-through challenges: Only 34% of inquiries become loans 

Conversion efficiency remains a key challenge. Only 34% of first-mortgage hard credit inquiries resulted in a completed mortgage origination, highlighting friction between borrower interest and loan fulfillment (Experian, 2026). 

Consumer research reinforces this gap. In an Experian survey, 50% of respondents reported that understanding what they could qualify for would be the most helpful step in their homeownership journey, suggesting that improved prequalification tools could materially increase pull-through rates (Experian, 2026). 

 Affordability pressure goes beyond the mortgage 

Between 2021 and 2025, property taxes increased by 15.2%, while non-tax escrow costs—primarily homeowners’ insurance—rose by 67.4% nationwide (Experian, 2026). 

State-level variation further complicates affordability assessments. Florida recorded the highest average non-tax escrow expenses at $430 per month largely due to sharp increase in home insurance costs. California, by contrast, exhibited the highest average property tax burden at $626, largely driven by elevated home values despite lower statutory tax rates (Experian, 2026). These dynamics underscore the importance of holistic cost modeling, particularly for first-time buyers. 

 Home equity: A lender’s growth frontier 

Home equity remains a significant growth opportunity. An estimated 96.2 million consumers reside in owner-occupied homes, with substantial portions owning their homes outright or holding more than 20% equity (Experian, 2026). HELOC usage is increasing, particularly among younger borrowers, 50% of whom utilize more than 60% of their available HELOC credit, compared with 36% of older borrowers (Experian, 2026). 

Market share shifts are also notable. Fintech lenders experienced a 140.2% increase in HELOC originations from 2023 to 2025, significantly outpacing banks and credit unions. These gains suggest that digital-first experiences and streamlined workflows are increasingly decisive factors for borrowers (Experian, 2026). 

 Risk and resilience: What credit and property data reveal 

Overall delinquency rates eased slightly; however, near-prime and prime borrowers demonstrated early signs of stress, particularly within first-mortgage portfolios (Experian, 2026). 

Property-level risk is also intensifying. Flood exposure increased by 3.7% nationally, with 26.4% of Florida homes identified as at risk. Rising exposure has contributed to escalating insurance costs, further affecting affordability and credit performance (Experian, 2026). 

From a credit hierarchy perspective, secured debt—especially mortgages and auto loans—continued to show the lowest delinquency rates. In contrast, student loans and credit cards exhibited higher delinquency risk, particularly among financially constrained renters and homeowners (Experian, 2026). 

 Generational optimism versus macroeconomic constraints 

Despite affordability headwinds, consumer optimism persists. Approximately 47% of renters believe they will be ready to purchase a home within four years, increasing to 67% within eight years (Experian, 2026). 

Structural constraints remain significant. Roughly 70% of homeowners hold mortgage rates below 6%, contributing to limited housing inventory as current owners remain rate-locked. With 30-year mortgage rates still above that level and a softening labor market, even modest increases in unemployment could further pressure affordability (Experian, 2026). 

 Implications for lenders 

Experian’s analysis highlights several strategic priorities for housing industry stakeholders: 

Expand access to credit. Incorporate alternative data sources, such as cash-flow analytics and rental payment history, to responsibly extend credit to underserved but qualified borrowers (Experian, 2026). 

Capitalize on equity demand. Develop HELOC offerings that are fast, flexible, and digitally enabled to meet the needs of equity-rich, rate-locked homeowners (Experian, 2026). 

Enhance risk precision. Integrate credit, property, and behavioral data to identify emerging risk early, particularly among near-prime segments, and to support more accurate pricing and portfolio management (Experian, 2026). 

 Conclusion 

The 2026 housing market reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic pressure, shifting borrower behavior, and growing reliance on home equity solutions. Agility and data-driven decision-making will be essential for lenders navigating this environment. The 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report offers critical insight to support growth while managing risk in an evolving landscape (Experian, 2026). 

📘 Access the full report hereExperian 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report 

References 

Experian. (2026). 2026 state of the U.S. housing market report. Experian. 

 

 

Related Posts

Why Innovation Matters for Members First Credit Union

Learn how Members First Credit Union uses innovation and data-driven insights to better serve members and expand financial opportunity.

July 24, 2026 by Scarlet Nickel
Ask the Expert: Unlocking the ROI of alternative data with Natasha Madan and Julius Heim

A visibility gap lenders can't afford to ignore Alternative data is often associated with thin-file or credit invisible consumers. But its value extends far beyond those segments. Experian's Clarity Services database includes approximately one in five credit-active consumers, including one in four consumers with prime-and-above credit profiles. That means lenders may be missing important signals, not only for emerging borrowers, but also for applicants who appear well qualified using traditional bureau data alone. Consider two consumers with the same credit score. Based on traditional credit data, they may appear equally creditworthy. But when Clarity data is added, one consumer may demonstrate stable repayment behavior while another shows recent defaults on alternative finance products. The credit score hasn't changed, but the decisioning context has. That's where alternative data creates value: helping lenders distinguish between consumers who look similar on paper but represent very different levels of risk and opportunity. In this Ask the Expert session, Experian’s Julius Heim, Vice President of Analytics Product Build, Innovation and Scores, and Natasha Madan, Senior Director, Analytics Consulting, explain how different alternative data assets solve different business challenges and why the greatest return comes from using them together throughout the credit lifecycle. What that visibility gap is really costing lenders Better visibility matters because every lending decision carries consequences. Without alternative data, lenders may approve applicants whose repayment behavior suggests elevated risk but isn't reflected in a traditional credit file. Without cash flow insights, they may decline consumers who appear thin file on bureau data despite demonstrating strong income and responsible financial management. The result is a two-sided cost: avoidable bad debt on one side and missed growth opportunities on the other. But ROI extends beyond approvals alone. It also appears through stronger marketing strategies, improved conversion, reduced friction and more precise risk segmentation throughout the lending lifecycle. "ROI can mean many things ... marketing to the right people, achieving better approval rates, reducing risk, getting less friction and overall profitability."Julius Heim, Vice President of Analytics Product Build, Innovation and Scores Where alternative data creates ROI Improve approval strategies Use additional consumer signals to recover creditworthy applicants while avoiding unnecessary declines. Reduce portfolio risk Identify elevated repayment risk earlier through enhanced visibility beyond traditional bureau data. Improve portfolio performance Increase conversion, reduce friction and strengthen profitability across the credit lifecycle. Different data. Different jobs. Not all alternative data solves the same problem. Clarity Services can help lenders strengthen decisions early in the customer journey. It provides additional visibility during prospecting and acquisition, helping identify potential risk before an application moves through the underwriting process. Cash flow insights can provide value in a different way. When traditional credit information offers part of the picture, consumer-permissioned cash flow data can provide greater insight into income, spending patterns and financial capacity. That makes it especially valuable as a second look during underwriting. Together, these complementary data assets help lenders improve decisioning throughout the credit lifecycle. They can support acquisition, underwriting, account management and collections while building on the trusted foundation of traditional bureau data. Research also continues to demonstrate measurable lift when cash flow insights are combined with traditional credit information. "I recently did a study with a client where we actually saw a 20% lift in KS [Kolmogorov-Smirnov] above and beyond credit bureau data. Again, the bureau data itself was very predictive. But even from the cash flow data, we still got a 20% lift, which is an amazing stat." Julius Heim, Vice President of Analytics Product Build, Innovation and Scores The greatest value comes from using these data sources together for a more holistic consumer view. Start with proof, then build Adopting alternative data doesn't have to begin with a large transformation. A practical first step is a data study. By comparing current decision strategies with enhanced data, lenders can identify where additional visibility creates measurable lift within their own portfolios. This approach allows institutions to validate results before making broader operational changes. Every lender has different workflows, technology environments and business priorities. A flexible implementation strategy helps organizations incorporate new data in ways that support existing processes rather than disrupting them. Three ways to get started Run a data study Benchmark current decision strategies and quantify potential lift. Start simple Begin with targeted data attributes or proven scores before expanding to more advanced use cases. Build with confidence Scale implementation based on measured business outcomes and organizational priorities. This approach allows lenders to validate results, build confidence and expand their strategy over time. Explore alternative data with a trusted partner Every lending decision benefits from better consumer insight. Experian helps lenders combine trusted credit data with alternative data, cash flow insights and advanced analytics to strengthen decisioning, improve portfolio performance and uncover new opportunities for growth. Whether you're evaluating alternative data for the first time or expanding an existing strategy, Experian can help you identify where additional consumer insight can create measurable business value. Learn more Contact us About our experts Julius Heim Vice President of Analytics Product Build, Innovation and Scores, Experian Julius Heim works at the intersection of financial services, analytics and innovation. He focuses on leveraging data to drive smarter decision-making and support more inclusive financial ecosystems. Julius brings a practical perspective on how organizations can translate insights into real-world impact, with particular interest in emerging trends across fintech, credit, and the use of alternative data, such as cash-flow data, across the credit lifecycle. Previously, he served as Head of Analytics on the lender side and held roles in insurance analytics earlier in his career. Natasha Madan Senior Director, Analytics Consulting, Experian Natasha Madan partners with lenders to drive smarter, data-driven credit and risk decisions. She specializes in leveraging alternative data and advanced analytics to help organizations improve portfolio performance, optimize customer acquisition, and expand responsible access to credit. During her 15 years at Experian, Natasha has held leadership roles spanning data analytics, product analytics and consulting, giving her a broad perspective of how data can be leverage to solve complex business challenges. She has worked with a diverse range of lenders – including banks, credit unions, fintechs and specialty finance companies to develop analytics strategies that optimize customer acquisition, underwriting and portfolio management. Natasha is passionate about helping organizations unlock the full potential of data to improve both business outcomes and consumer financial inclusion.

July 24, 2026 by Julie.JLee@experian.com
Advancing Homeownership Through Partnership 

Learn how HomeFree-USA and Experian partner to expand financial education, strengthen communities and help consumers achieve homeownership.

July 22, 2026 by Scarlet Nickel

Request More Information

Subscribe to our Housing Blog

Enter your name and email for the latest updates.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Subscribe to the Housing Blog

Receive updates from Experian Housing
Subscribe