As we move into the final stretch of 2025, the U.S. housing market is balancing sustained, but stagnant originations volumes with softening credit performance. For mortgage lenders and servicers, this presents both challenges and opportunities. Experian’s highlights a housing market that is not in crisis but showing signs of strain that require attention and strategic adaptation.
Identified risk trends: Escrow pressures and student loan headwinds
Meanwhile, the return of student loan repayments is having a ripple effect across mortgage performance — particularly among borrowers with sub-660 credit scores and those already behind on student loans. These borrowers are exhibiting significantly higher mortgage delinquency rates, revealing an urgent need to track cross-credit dependencies more closely.
In the home equity space, the delinquency picture is mixed. HELOC delinquencies have flattened, while HELOANs are experiencing a divergence — early-stage delinquencies are falling, but late-stage delinquencies are rising. These trends indicate relative stability in home equity credit performance, but attention should be paid to segments of the market, like securitized home equity, for deterioration in credit performance.
Refinance revival: A glimmer of growth
Despite these risk signals, growth is returning in key areas. Refinance activity is rebounding, driven by dips in Treasury yields and renewed borrower interest in lowering monthly payments. Originations are increasing, and mortgage direct mail marketing has resumed after a period of stagnation. Both prescreen and invitation-to-apply (ITA) campaigns are on the rise, signaling a re-engagement with the borrower market. Home equity lending is also heating up, particularly in the prescreen space, with fintechs aggressively scaling their outreach. This resurgence in marketing creates an opening for lenders — but only those equipped to act quickly.
Market fundamentals: Why housing supply still lags
Beneath these lending and marketing shifts lies a broader macroeconomic narrative. GDP growth is slowing, unemployment is creeping upward and inflation remains stubbornly high. Mortgage rates hover between six and seven percent, contributing to one of the most prominent constraints in today’s market: the lock-in effect. Over 80% of U.S. homeowners hold mortgage rates significantly below current levels, discouraging movement and keeping housing inventory tight. Even as new listings improved earlier this year, seasonal adjustments and elevated rates have brought supply back down. Construction activity remains uneven. While there’s been some progress in completions, overall new starts remain weak. Large-scale developers remain cautious, further constraining supply and sustaining price pressure in many markets.
Strategic imperatives for lenders
Given this context, what should lenders prioritize? First, portfolio risk management must evolve to keep pace with borrower realities. Custom risk models, proactive account reviews and early-warning systems can help surface emerging risks, especially among vulnerable cohorts with multiple debts or high debt-to-income ratios.
Second, marketing strategies must become more agile. Investing in scalable tools like Experian’s self-service prescreen and/or account review enables faster execution, real-time list building, and more efficient targeting. With refinance activity picking up, this agility is key to capturing demand before it fades.
Third, lenders must lead with data. From credit performance to macroeconomic indicators, strategic decisions need to be grounded in real-time insights. Aligning marketing, servicing, and risk teams around shared, data-driven intelligence will separate the winners from the rest.
Bottom line: A controlled descent, not a crash
In summary, the November 2025 housing market presents a picture of controlled deceleration, not a free fall. Borrowers are under pressure, but the system remains stable. For lenders, the message is clear: act now to optimize your portfolio, accelerate outreach and prepare for cyclical demand shifts. With the right strategies, lenders can not only weather the current environment but position themselves for the next wave of opportunity.
This article uses data from both Experian Credit Bureau and Mintel: Global Market Intelligence & Research Agency
