Discover how Experian’s Mortgage Loan Performance dataset reveals current second lien balances that materially impact MBS prepayment speeds, CLTV accuracy, and call protection. Learn why this new loan-level data meets the New, Material, and Significant criteria to move agency MBS markets and improve investor modeling precision.

The mortgage industry is adapting to a structural shift. Experian’s 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report shows a market in transition. Conventional loans account for 72% of originations, FHA 17.5% and VA 10.8% with VA showing the strongest growth from 2023 to 2025. But origination mix only tells part of the story. Beneath it lies an arguably more consequential shift: borrower expectations, affordability pressures and regulatory changes are converging. On the regulatory front, the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA) may reduce mortgage trigger leads and limit broad competitive outreach. As competitive visibility narrows, the lender relationship becomes more central and important beyond the closing transaction. In this environment, lenders must provide value to win, and that increasingly means financial wellness. A growing trust gap Only 34% of first mortgage hard inquiries of first mortgage hard inquiries convert into funded originations, according to Experian. That means two-thirds of borrowers who initiate the process never close. External data confirms the trend as Mortgage Bankers Association reported retail mortgage pull-through rates declined to roughly 69% in early 2025 – the lowest in over a decade – and as low as 55% among depository lenders. While pull-through can be impacted by a number of factors not influenced by the lender, when borrowers abandon applications, it can be a biproduct of uncertainty – something that the lender can influence. This is where financial wellness becomes strategic and lenders can close the trust gap by providing proactive credit visibility and guidance before underwriting friction occurs. Read more in our white paper, “The New Unlock for Mortgage.” Affordability stress While rates have eased from their 2023 highs, they remain above 6%, sustaining the lock-in effect and limiting housing supply, according to Experian’s 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report. Approximately 70% of homeowners are locked into sub-6% mortgages, according to Freddie Mac. Beyond mortgage rates, increases in property taxes and non-tax escrow amounts (i.e. insurance) increase affordability pressures for consumers. Financial wellness solutions that incorporate credit monitoring, budgeting insights and cashflow visibility help borrowers understand whether they are prepared. Opportunity among millennials and Gen Z Nearly 47% of U.S. renters expect to purchase a home within four years, rising to 67% within eight years, according to Experian. This signals the time to invest in financial wellness as a differentiator, and both a growth and retention driver, is now. Financial wellness as the new unlock for mortgage Financial wellness is not an ancillary service but the foundation upon which borrower confidence, long-term engagement, conversion and risk management connect. Lenders who embed solutions like credit education, score visibility, alerts, and identity protection directly into the consumer experience can differentiate themselves from the competition above and beyond rates alone. Read more in our white paper, “The New Unlock for Mortgage.” Learn more about Experian Mortgage

What do BNPL rules mean for mortgage credit scoring? As regulators push for greater transparency and alternative data reporting, lenders must adopt modern credit models that include rent, cash flow, and trended data. Learn how evolving BNPL guidance signals the future of mortgage underwriting and why forward-thinking lenders are modernizing scoring strategies now.

U.S. rental housing market outlook 2026: Analyze elevated mortgage rates, rental supply constraints, affordability pressure, and rising fraud risk. Discover how data analytics, rent reporting, and digital income and employment verification help property managers reduce risk, improve screening accuracy, and make smarter, faster leasing decisions.

  Experian Verify is redefining how lenders streamline income and employment verification; a value clearly reflected in Marcus Bontrager’s experience at Freedom Mortgage. With access to the second-largest instant payroll network in the U.S., Experian Verify connects lenders to millions of unique employer records, including those sourced through Experian Employer Services clients, delivering instant results at scale. This reach enables lenders to reduce manual processes, accelerate loan decisions, and enhance the borrower experience from the very first touchpoint. Unlike traditional verification providers, Experian Verify offers transparent, value-driven pricing: it charges only when a consumer is successfully verified, not simply when an employer record is found. As lenders navigate increasing compliance requirements and secondary market expectations, they can also rely on Experian Verify’s FCRA-compliant framework, fully supporting both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Combined with Experian’s industry-leading data governance and quality standards, lenders gain a verification partner they can trust for accuracy, security, and long-term operational efficiency. Perhaps most importantly, Experian Verify delivers 100% U.S. workforce coverage through its flexible, automated waterfall: instant verification, consumer-permissioned verification, and research verification. This multilayered approach ensures lenders meet every borrower where they are, whether they’re connected to a large payroll provider, a smaller employer, or require additional document-based validation. As Marcus highlights in the video, this comprehensive and configurable design empowers lenders to build verification workflows that truly fit their business needs while enhancing speed, completeness, and borrower satisfaction. Explore Experian Verify

Lenders who want to outperform peers in today’s housing market should embrace a data-driven playbook. These four strategic pillars—borrower insights, efficiency, geography, and refinance readiness—define the path forward. 

As the U.S. housing market enters a new phase, the 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report from Experian provides a data-driven overview for lenders, servicers, and property managers. This article synthesizes findings related to mortgage originations, affordability pressures, home equity utilization, credit risk, and generational sentiment, with implications for lender strategy in 2026 (Experian, 2026).  Mortgage market in flux: Opportunity amid transition  The mortgage market presents mixed signals. Rate moderation in late 2025 contributed to renewed demand, while the product mix continued to evolve. Conventional loans remained dominant at approximately 72% of originations, yet Veterans Affairs (VA) loans experienced the highest growth between 2023 and 2025, reaching 10.8% market share (Experian, 2026).  At the same time, second mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) gained momentum as homeowners sought liquidity without refinancing out of historically low interest rates. This trend reflects growing demand for equity-based solutions that preserve favorable first-mortgage terms (Experian, 2026).   Pull-through challenges: Only 34% of inquiries become loans  Conversion efficiency remains a key challenge. Only 34% of first-mortgage hard credit inquiries resulted in a completed mortgage origination, highlighting friction between borrower interest and loan fulfillment (Experian, 2026).  Consumer research reinforces this gap. In an Experian survey, 50% of respondents reported that understanding what they could qualify for would be the most helpful step in their homeownership journey, suggesting that improved prequalification tools could materially increase pull-through rates (Experian, 2026).   Affordability pressure goes beyond the mortgage  Between 2021 and 2025, property taxes increased by 15.2%, while non-tax escrow costs—primarily homeowners' insurance—rose by 67.4% nationwide (Experian, 2026).  State-level variation further complicates affordability assessments. Florida recorded the highest average non-tax escrow expenses at $430 per month largely due to sharp increase in home insurance costs. California, by contrast, exhibited the highest average property tax burden at $626, largely driven by elevated home values despite lower statutory tax rates (Experian, 2026). These dynamics underscore the importance of holistic cost modeling, particularly for first-time buyers.   Home equity: A lender’s growth frontier  Home equity remains a significant growth opportunity. An estimated 96.2 million consumers reside in owner-occupied homes, with substantial portions owning their homes outright or holding more than 20% equity (Experian, 2026). HELOC usage is increasing, particularly among younger borrowers, 50% of whom utilize more than 60% of their available HELOC credit, compared with 36% of older borrowers (Experian, 2026).  Market share shifts are also notable. Fintech lenders experienced a 140.2% increase in HELOC originations from 2023 to 2025, significantly outpacing banks and credit unions. These gains suggest that digital-first experiences and streamlined workflows are increasingly decisive factors for borrowers (Experian, 2026).   Risk and resilience: What credit and property data reveal  Overall delinquency rates eased slightly; however, near-prime and prime borrowers demonstrated early signs of stress, particularly within first-mortgage portfolios (Experian, 2026).  Property-level risk is also intensifying. Flood exposure increased by 3.7% nationally, with 26.4% of Florida homes identified as at risk. Rising exposure has contributed to escalating insurance costs, further affecting affordability and credit performance (Experian, 2026).  From a credit hierarchy perspective, secured debt—especially mortgages and auto loans—continued to show the lowest delinquency rates. In contrast, student loans and credit cards exhibited higher delinquency risk, particularly among financially constrained renters and homeowners (Experian, 2026).   Generational optimism versus macroeconomic constraints  Despite affordability headwinds, consumer optimism persists. Approximately 47% of renters believe they will be ready to purchase a home within four years, increasing to 67% within eight years (Experian, 2026).  Structural constraints remain significant. Roughly 70% of homeowners hold mortgage rates below 6%, contributing to limited housing inventory as current owners remain rate-locked. With 30-year mortgage rates still above that level and a softening labor market, even modest increases in unemployment could further pressure affordability (Experian, 2026).   Implications for lenders  Experian’s analysis highlights several strategic priorities for housing industry stakeholders:  Expand access to credit. Incorporate alternative data sources, such as cash-flow analytics and rental payment history, to responsibly extend credit to underserved but qualified borrowers (Experian, 2026).  Capitalize on equity demand. Develop HELOC offerings that are fast, flexible, and digitally enabled to meet the needs of equity-rich, rate-locked homeowners (Experian, 2026).  Enhance risk precision. Integrate credit, property, and behavioral data to identify emerging risk early, particularly among near-prime segments, and to support more accurate pricing and portfolio management (Experian, 2026).   Conclusion  The 2026 housing market reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic pressure, shifting borrower behavior, and growing reliance on home equity solutions. Agility and data-driven decision-making will be essential for lenders navigating this environment. The 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report offers critical insight to support growth while managing risk in an evolving landscape (Experian, 2026).  📘 Access the full report here: Experian 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report  References  Experian. (2026). 2026 state of the U.S. housing market report. Experian.     

Who is renting in 2025 and why it matters. Explore renter demographics, affordability pressures, credit trends and how Experian data helps predict housing risk and demand.

Discover how Experian Verify’s real-time “Go Fetch” model enhances data integrity, reduces fraud, and redefines trust in income and employment verification amid rising digital threats.

Explore how Experian Verify™ uses multi-layered identity pinning to enhance data accuracy and fight synthetic fraud in today’s evolving verification landscape. Learn why dual PIN validation is becoming essential for secure, real-time income and employment verification.

Rising late-stage mortgage delinquencies signal hidden risk in 2025. Learn how lenders can identify early warning signs and manage mortgage and HELOC risk proactively.

Discover how Experian’s Rent Bureau and Observed Data can transform your mortgage lead strategy by predicting income, risk, and readiness earlier in the funnel—improving targeting and reducing acquisition costs.

With the Fed initiating rate reductions, the housing market is entering a new phase. Learn what mortgage lenders must know about affordability, borrower behavior, and emerging opportunities.

Direct mail is reshaping mortgage and home equity lending in 2025. See why prescreen targeting, data-driven personalization, and market exits are creating new growth opportunities for lenders.

Discover how Freddie Mac’s LLDC and Experian’s MLP dataset are revolutionizing MBS analytics with real-time loan-level data. Learn how enhanced borrower and property insights improve pricing, reduce risk, and unlock new investment strategies in mortgage-backed securities.