Tag: predictive modeling

In today's data-driven business landscape, leveraging advanced targeting techniques is crucial for effective consumer engagement, particularly in the financial services sector. Prescreen targeting solutions have evolved significantly, offering a competitive edge through more precise and impactful outreach strategies. The power of data analytics and predictive modeling At the heart of modern prescreen targeting solutions lies the integration of extensive data analytics and predictive modeling. These systems combine detailed consumer information, including purchasing behaviors and credit scores, with sophisticated algorithms to identify potential customers most likely to respond positively to specific promotional campaigns. This approach not only streamlines campaign efforts but also enhances the tactical effectiveness of each interaction. Direct mail: a proven channel for financial services In the competitive North American financial services market, direct mail has demonstrated distinct advantages as a targeting channel. Its tangible nature helps cut through digital noise, capturing consumer attention effectively. For credit products, direct mail typically achieves engagement rates of 0.2-2% for prime consumers and 1-3% for near-prime and subprime consumers[1]. Key advantages of prescreen targeting solutions Enhanced response rates Custom response models can significantly boost prospect response rates by targeting a well-defined, high-propensity audience. These models have the potential to improve average response rates of prescreen direct mail campaigns by 10-25%. Risk mitigation By focusing on well-defined, high-propensity audiences, prescreen targeting via direct mail aims to attract the right prospects, minimizing fraud and delinquency risks. This targeted approach can lead to substantial savings on underwriting costs. Improved customer engagement and retention Personalized direct mail strengthens customer relationships by making recipients feel valued, leading to higher engagement and loyalty – crucial factors for long-term business success. Regulatory compliance and security Prescreen solutions come equipped with compliance safeguards, simplifying adherence to industry regulations and consumer privacy standards. This is particularly critical in the highly regulated financial sector. The future of targeting and enhancement As markets continue to evolve, the strategic importance of precise and efficient marketing techniques will only grow. Financial institutions leveraging optimized prescreen targeting and enhancement solutions can gain a significant competitive advantage, achieving higher immediate returns and fostering long-term customer loyalty and brand strength. Future advancements in AI and machine learning are expected to further refine prescreen targeting capabilities, offering even more sophisticated tools for marketers to engage effectively with their target audiences. Ascend Intelligence Services™ Target Ascend Intelligence Services Target is a sophisticated prescreening solution that boosts direct mail response rates. It uses comprehensive trended and alternative data, capturing credit and behavior patterns to iterate through direct mail response models and mathematical optimization. This enhances the target strategy and maximizes campaign response, take-up rates, and ROI within business constraints. Visit our website to learn more [1] Experian Research, Data Science Team, July 2024 

The deprecation of third-party cookies is one of the biggest changes to the automotive digital marketing landscape in recent years. Third-party cookies have long been used to track users across the web, which allows advertisers to target them with relevant ads. However, privacy concerns have led to the deprecation of third-party cookies in major browsers, such as Google Chrome and Safari. This change will have a significant impact on automotive marketers, as it will make it more difficult to track users and target them with ads. However, there are several things that auto marketers can do to prepare for the cookieless future. Here are some marketing tips when the cookie deprecates: Focus on first-party data. First-party data is data that you collect directly from your customers, such as email addresses, contact information, and purchase history. This data is more valuable than third-party data, as it is more accurate and reliable. You can use first-party data to create targeted ad campaigns and personalize your marketing messages. Work with a third-party aggregator. Automotive marketers can tackle a cookie-less world by using other sources of consumer data insights. For instance, a third-party data aggregator, like Experian, has access to numerous sources, platforms, and websites. Beyond that, we have access to a vast range of specific consumer data insights, including vehicle ownership, registrations, vehicle history data, and lending data. We take all that information and help marketers segment audiences and predict what consumers will do next. Leverage Universal Identifiers. Universal Identifiers provide a shared identity to identity across the supply chain without syncing cookies. First-party data (such as CRM data) and offline data can be used to create Universal Identifiers. Use contextual targeting and audience modeling. Contextual targeting involves targeting ads based on the content that a user is viewing. Contextual targeting is a privacy-friendly way to target ads and it can be effective in reaching relevant audiences. Utilize Identity Graphs. An identity graph combines Personally Identifiable Information (PII) with non-PIIs like first-party cookies and publisher IDS. Identity graphs will allow cross-channel and cross-platform tracking and targeting. Experian’s Graph precisely connects digital identifiers such as MAIDS, IPs, cookies, universal IDs, and hashed emails to households providing marketers with a consolidated view of consumers’ digital IDs. The deprecation of third-party cookies will be a challenge for auto marketers, but it's also an opportunity to rethink marketing strategies and focus on building stronger relationships with customers. Here are some additional cookieless marketing tips: Start preparing now. Don't wait until the last minute to start preparing for the cookieless future. Start collecting first-party data from your customers now. Be transparent with your customers. Let your customers know what data you are collecting and how you are using it. Make sure that you have their consent to collect and use their data. Be creative with your marketing campaigns. There are several ways to reach your target audience without relying on cookies. Be creative with your marketing campaigns and experiment with different strategies. Sample audience segments include: Consumers in market Loan status In positive equity Driving a specific year/make/model 1000+ lifestyle events such as new baby, marriage, new home Geography, demographics, psychographics To take it to the next level, we can use predictive analytics to go beyond what cookie data could provide by predicting who is ready to purchase a vehicle. For example, an auto marketer may have used cookie data to find buyers who had shown interest in a hybrid sedan, but that’s where it ended. When combining audience segmentation with a predictive model, marketers can target and identify consumers in-market and most likely ready to purchase a specific model. In this way, the data-driven insights from a third-party data provider specializing in automotive insights can replace the cookie-driven approach and take it a significant step beyond. The cookieless future is coming, but marketers who are prepared will be able to succeed. By focusing on first-party data, contextual targeting, and partnerships, auto marketers can reach their target audiences and achieve marketing goals.  

The science of turning historical data into actionable insights is far from magic. And while organizations have successfully used predictive analytics for years, we're in the midst of a transformation. New tools, vast amounts of data, enhanced computing power and decreasing implementation costs are making predictive analytics increasingly accessible. And business leaders from varying industries and functions can now use the outcomes to make strategic decisions and manage risk. What is predictive analytics? Predictive analytics is a type of data analytics that uses statistical modeling and machine learning techniques to make predictions based on historical data. Organizations can use predictive analytics to predict risks, needs and outcomes. You might use predictive analytics to make an immediate decision. For example, whether or not to approve a new credit application based on a credit score — the output from a predictive credit risk model. But organizations can also use predictive analytics to make long-term decisions, such as how much inventory to order or staff to hire based on expected demand. How can predictive business analytics help a business succeed? Businesses can use predictive analytics in different parts of their organizations to answer common and critical questions. These include forecasting market trends, inventory and staffing needs, sales and risk. With a wide range of potential applications, it’s no surprise that organizations across industries and functions are using predictive analytics to inform their decisions. Here are a few examples of how predictive analytics can be helpful: Financial services: Financial institutions can use predictive analytics to assess credit risk, detect fraudulent applicants or transactions, cross-sell customers and limit losses during recovery. Healthcare: Using data from health records and medical devices, predictive models can predict patient outcomes or identify patients who need critical care. Manufacturing: An organization can use models to predict when machines need to be turned off or repaired to improve their longevity and avoid accidents. Retail: Brick-and-mortar retailers might use predictive analytics when deciding where to expand, what to cross-sell loyalty program members and how to improve pricing. Hospitality: A large hospitality group might predict future reservations to help determine how much staff they need to hire or schedule. Advanced techniques in predictive modeling for financial services Emerging technologies, particularly AI and machine learning (ML), are revolutionizing predictive modeling in the financial sector by providing more accurate, faster and more nuanced insights. Taking a closer look at financial services, consider how an organization might use predictive credit analytics and credit risk scores across the customer lifecycle. Marketing: Segment consumers to run targeted marketing campaigns and send prescreened credit offers to the people who are most likely to respond. AI models can analyze customer data to offer personalized offers and product recommendations. Underwriting: AI technologies enable real-time data analysis, which is critical for underwriting. The outputs from credit risk models can help you to quickly approve, deny or send applications for manual review. Explainable machine learning models may be able to expand automation and outperform predictive models built with older techniques by 10 to 15 percent.1 Fraud detection models can also raise red flags based on suspicious information or behaviors. Account management: Manage portfolios and improve customer retention, experience and lifetime value. The outputs can help you determine when you should adjust credit lines and interest rates or extend offers to existing customers. AI can automate complex decision-making processes by learning from historical data, reducing the need for human intervention and minimizing human error. Collections: Optimize and automate collections based on models' predictions about consumers' propensity to pay and expected recovery amounts. ML models, which are capable of processing vast amounts of unstructured data, can uncover complex patterns that traditional models might miss. Although some businesses can use unsupervised or “black box" models, regulations may limit how financial institutions can use predictive analytics to make lending decisions. Fortunately, there are ways to use advanced analytics, including AI and ML, to improve performance with fully compliant and explainable credit risk models and scores. WHITE PAPER: Getting AI-driven decisioning right in financial services Developing predictive analytics models Going from historical data to actionable analytics insights can be a long journey. And if you're making major decisions based on a model's predictions, you need to be confident that there aren’t any missteps along the way. Internal and external data scientists can oversee the process of developing, testing and implementing predictive analytics models: Define your goal: Determine the predictions you want to make or problems you want to solve given the constraints you must act within. Collect data: Identify internal and external data sources that house information that could be potentially relevant to your goal. Prepare the data: Clean the data to prepare it for analysis by removing errors or outliers and determining if more data will be helpful. Develop and validate models: Create predictive models based on your data, desired outcomes and regulatory requirements. Deciding which tools and techniques to use during model development is part of the art that goes into the science of predictive analytics. You can then validate models to confirm that they accurately predict outcomes. Deploy the models: Once a model is validated, deploy it into a live environment to start making predictions. Depending on your IT environment, business leaders may be able to easily access the outputs using a dashboard, app or website. Monitor results: Test and monitor the model to ensure it's continually meeting performance expectations. You may need to regularly retrain or redevelop models using training data that better reflects current conditions. Depending on your goals and resources, you may want to start with off-the-shelf predictive models that can offer immediate insights. But if your resources and experience allow, custom models may offer more insights. CASE STUDY: Experian worked with one of the largest retail credit card issuers to develop a custom acquisition model. The client's goal was to quickly replace their outdated custom model while complying with their model governance requirements. By using proprietary attribute sets and a patented advanced model development process, Experian built a model that offered 10 percent performance improvements across segments. Predictive modeling techniques Data scientists can use different modeling techniques when building predictive models, including: Regression analysis: A traditional approach that identifies the most important relationships between two or more variables. Decision trees: Tree-like diagrams  show potential choices and their outcomes. Gradient-boosted trees: Builds on the output from individual decision trees to train more predictive trees by identifying and correcting errors. Random forest: Uses multiple decision trees that are built in parallel on slightly different subsets of the training data. Each tree will give an output, and the forest can analyze all of these outputs to determine the most likely result. Neural networks: Designed to mimic how the brain works to find underlying relationships between data points through repeated tests and pattern recognition. Support vector machines: A type of machine learning algorithm that can classify data into different groups and make predictions based on shared characteristics. Experienced data scientists may know which techniques will work well for specific business needs. However, developing and comparing several models using different techniques can help determine the best fit. Implementation challenges and solutions in predictive analytics Integrating predictive analytics into existing systems presents several challenges that range from technical hurdles to external scrutiny. Here are some common obstacles and practical solutions: Data integration and quality: Existing systems often comprise disparate data sources, including legacy systems that do not easily interact. Extracting high-quality data from these varied sources is a challenge due to inconsistent data formats and quality. Implementing robust data management practices, such as data warehousing and data governance frameworks, ensure data quality and consistency. The use  of APIs can facilitate seamless data integration. Scalability: Predictive business analytics models that perform well in a controlled test environment may not scale effectively across the entire organization. They can suffer from performance issues when deployed on a larger scale due to increased data volumes and transaction rates. Invest in scalable infrastructure, such as cloud-based platforms that can dynamically adjust resources based on demand. Regulatory compliance: Financial institutions are heavily regulated, and any analytics tool must comply with existing laws — such as the Fair Credit Reporting Act in the U.S. — which govern data privacy and model transparency. Including explainable AI capabilities helps to ensure transparency and compliance in your predictive models. Compliance protocols should be regularly reviewed to align with both internal audits and external regulations. Expertise: Predictive analytics requires specialized knowledge in data science, machine learning and analytics. Develop in-house expertise through training and development programs or consider partnerships with analytics firms to bridge the gap. By addressing these challenges with thoughtful strategies, organizations can effectively integrate predictive analytics into their systems to enhance decision-making and gain a competitive advantage. From prediction to prescription While prediction analytics focuses on predicting what may happen, prescription analytics focuses on what you should do next. When combined, you can use the results to optimize decisions throughout your organization. But it all starts with good data and prediction models. Learn more about Experian's predictive modeling solutions. 1Experian (2020). Machine Learning Decisions in Milliseconds *This article includes content created by an AI language model and is intended to provide general information.

Machine learning (ML) is a powerful tool that can consume vast amounts of data to uncover patterns, learn from past behaviors, and predict future outcomes. By leveraging ML-powered credit risk models, lenders can better determine the likelihood that a consumer will default on a loan or credit obligation, allowing them to score applicants more accurately. When applied to credit decisioning, lenders can achieve a 25 percent reduction in exposure to risky customers and a 35 percent decrease in non-performing loans.1 While ML-driven models enable lenders to target the right audience and control credit losses, many organizations face challenges in developing and deploying these models. Some still rely on traditional lending models with limitations preventing them from making fast and accurate decisions, including slow reaction times, fewer data sources, and less predictive performance. With a trusted and experienced partner, financial institutions can create and deploy highly predictive ML models that optimize their credit decisioning. Case study: Increase customer acquisition with improved predictive performance Looking to meet growth goals without increasing risk, a consumer goods retailer sought out a modern and flexible solution that could help expand its finance product options. This meant replacing existing ML models with a custom model that offers greater transparency and predictive power. The retailer partnered with Experian to develop a transparent and explainable ML model. Based on the model’s improved predictive performance, transparency, and ability to derive adverse action reasons for declines, the retailer increased sales and application approval rates while reducing credit risk. Read the case study Learn about our custom modeling capabilities 1 Experian (2020). The Art of Decisioning in Uncertain Times

In today’s ever-changing and hypercompetitive environment, the customer experience has taken center-stage – highlighting new expectations in the ways businesses interact with their customers. But studies show financial institutions are falling short. In fact, a recent study revealed that 94% of banking firms can’t deliver on the “personalization promise.” It’s not difficult to see why. Consumer preferences have changed, with many now preferring digital interactions. This has made it difficult for financial institutions to engage with consumers on a personal level. Nevertheless, customers expect seamless, consistent, and personalized experiences – that’s where the power of advanced analytics comes into play. It’s no secret that using advanced analytics can enable businesses to turn rich data into insights that lead to confident business decisions and strategy development. But these business tools can actually help financial institutions deliver on that promise of personalization. According to an Experian study, 90% of organizations say that embracing advanced analytics is critical to their ability to provide an excellent customer experience. By using data and analytics to anticipate and respond to customer behavior, companies can develop new and creative ways to cater to their audiences – revolutionizing the customer experience as a whole. It All Starts With Data Data is the foundation for a successful digital transformation – the lack of clean and cohesive datasets can hinder the ability to implement advanced analytic capabilities. However,  89% of organizations face challenges on how to effectively manage and consolidate their data, according to Experian’s Global Data Management Research Benchmark Report of 2019. Because consumers prefer digital interactions, companies have been able to gather a vast amount of customer data. Technology that uses advanced analytic capabilities (like machine learning and artificial intelligence) are capable of uncovering patterns in this data that may not otherwise be apparent, therefore opening doors to new avenues for companies to generate revenue. To start, companies need a strategy to access all customer data from all channels in a cohesive ecosystem – including data from their own data warehouses and a variety of different data sources. Depending on their needs, the data elements can come from a third party data provider such as: a credit bureau, alternative data, marketing data, data gathered during each customer contact, survey data and more. Once compiled, companies can achieve a more holistic and single view of their customer. With this single view, companies will be able to deliver more relevant and tailored experiences that are in-line with rising customer expectations. From Personalized Experiences to Predicting the Future The most progressive financial institutions have found that using analytics and machine learning to conquer the wide variety of customer data has made it easier to master the customer experience. With advanced analytics, these companies gain deeper insights into their customers and deliver highly relevant and beneficial offers based on the holistic views of their customers. When data is provided, technology with advanced analytic capabilities can transform this information into intelligent outputs, allowing companies to optimize and automate business processes with the customer in mind. Data, analytics and automation are the keys to delivering better customer experiences. Analytics is the process of converting data into actionable information so firms can understand their customers and take decisive action. By leveraging this business intelligence, companies can quickly adapt to consumer demand. Predictive models and forecasts, increasingly powered by machine learning, help lenders and other businesses understand risks and predict future trends and consumer responses. Prescriptive analytics help offer the right products to the right customer at the right time and price. By mastering all of these, businesses can be wherever their customers are. The Experian Advantage With insights into over 270 million customers and a wealth of traditional credit and alternative data, we’re able to drive prescriptive solutions to solve your most complex market and portfolio problems across the customer lifecycle – while reinventing and maintaining an excellent customer experience. If your company is ready for an advanced analytical transformation, Experian can help get you there. Learn More