If you’re a manager at a business that lends to consumers or otherwise extends credit, you certainly are aware that 10-15% of your current customers and prospective future customers are among the approximately 27 million consumers who are now – or will soon be -- fitting another bill into their monthly budgets. Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the government issued a pause on federal student loan payments and interest. Now that the payment pause has expired, millions of Americans face a new bill averaging more than $200. Will they pay you first? If this is your concern, you aren’t alone: Experian recently held a webinar that discussed how the end of the student loan pause might affect businesses. When we surveyed the webinar attendees, nearly 3 out of 4 responses included Risk Management as a main concerns now. Another top concern is about credit scores. Lenders and investors use credit scores – bureau scores such FICO® or VantageScore® credit score or custom credit scores proprietary to their institution – to predict credit default risk. The risk managers at those companies want to know to what extent they can continue to rely on those scores as Federal student loan payments come due and consumers experience payment shock. I’ve analyzed a large and statistically meaningful sample (10% of the US consumer population in Experian’s Ascend Sandbox) to shed some light on that question. As background information, the average consumer with student loans had lower scores before the pandemic than the average of the general population. One of my Experian colleagues has explored some of the reasons at https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/average-student-loan-payments). Here are some of the things we can learn from comparing the credit data of the two groups of people. I looked at a period from 2019 and from 2023 to see how things have changed: Average credit scores increased during the pandemic, continuing a long-term trend during which more Americans have been willing and able to meet all their obligations. During the COVID Public Health Emergency, consumers with student loans brought up their scores by an average of 25 points; that was 7 points more than consumers without student loans. Another way to look at it: in 2019, consumers with student loans had credit scores 23 points lower than consumers without. By 2023, that difference had shrunk to 16 points. Experian research shows that there will be little immediate impact on credit scores when the new bills come due. Time will tell whether these increased credit scores accurately reflect a reduction in the risk that consumers will default on other bills such as auto loans or bankcards soon, even as some people fit student loan bills into their budgets. It is well-known that many people saved money during the public health emergency. Since then, the personal savings rate has fallen from a pandemic high of 32% to levels between 3% and 5% this year – lower than at any point since the 2009 recession. In an October 2023 Experian survey, only 36% of borrowers said they either set aside funds or they planned using other financial strategies specifically for the resumption of their student loan payments. Additional findings from that study can be found here. Furthermore, there are changes in the way your customers have used their credit cards over the last four years: Consumers’ credit card balances have increased over the last four years. Consumers with student loans have balances that are on average $282 (4%) more now than in 2019. That is a significantly smaller increase than for consumers without student loans, whose total credit card debt increased by an average of $1,932 (26%). Although their balances increased, the ratio of consumers’ total revolving debt balances to their credit limits (utilization) changed by less than 1% for both consumers with student loans and consumers without. In 2019, the utilization ratio was 9.8 percentage points lower for consumers with student loans than consumers without. Four years later, the difference is nearly the same (9.6 points). We can conclude that many student loan borrowers have been very responsible with credit during the Public Health Emergency. They may have been more mindful of their credit situation, and some may have planned for the day when their student loan payments will be due. As the student loan pause come to an end, there are a few things that lenders and other businesses should be doing to be ready: Even if you are not a student loan lender, it is important to stay on top of the rapidly evolving student loan environment. It affects many of your customers, and your business with them needs to adapt. Anticipate that fraudsters and abusers of credit will be creative now: periods of change create opportunities for them and you should be one step ahead. Build optimized strategies in marketing, account opening, and servicing. Consider using machine learning to make more accurate predictions. Those strategies should reflect trends in payments, balances, and utilization; older credit scores look at a single point in time. Continually refresh data about your customers—including their credit scores and important attributes related to payments, balances, and utilization patterns. Look for alternative data that will give you a leg up on the competition. In the coming weeks and months, Experian’s data scientists will monitor measures of performance of the scores and attributes that you depend on in your data-driven strategies — particularly focusing on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistics that will show changes in the predictive power of each score and attribute. (If you are a data-driven business, your data science team or a trusted partner should be doing the same thing with a more specific look at your customer base and business strategies.) In future reports and blog posts, we’ll shed light on the impact student loans are having on your customers and on your business. In the meantime, for more information about how to use data and advanced analytics to grow while controlling costs and risks, all while staying in compliance and providing a good customer experience, visit our website.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) took a big step towards revolutionizing the U.S. payment landscape with the official launch of FedNow, a new instant payment service, on July 20, 2023. While the new payment network offers advantages, there are concerns that fraudsters may be quick to exploit the new real-time technology with fraud schemes like automated push payment (APP) fraud. How is FedNow different from existing payment networks? To keep pace with regions across the globe and accelerate innovation, the U.S. created a alternative to the existing payment network known as The Clearing House (TCH) Real-Time Payment Network (RTP). Fraudsters can use the fact that real-time payments immediately settle to launder the stolen money through multiple channels quickly. The potential for this kind of fraud has led financial regulators to consider measures to better protect against it. While both FedNow and RTP charge a comparable fee of 4.5 cents per originated transaction, the key distinction lies in their governance. RTP is operated by a consortium of large banks, whereas FedNow falls under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve Bank. This distinction could give FedNow an edge in the market. One of the advantages of FedNow is its integration with the extensive Federal Reserve network, allowing smaller local banks across the country to access the service. RTP estimates accessibility to institutions holding approximately 90% of U.S. demand deposit accounts (DDAs), but currently only reaches 62% of DDAs due to limited participation from eligible institutions. What are real-time payments? Real-time payments refer to transactions between bank accounts that are initiated, cleared, and settled within seconds, regardless of the time or day. This immediacy enhances transparency and instills confidence in payments, which benefits consumers, banks and businesses.Image sourced from JaredFranklin.com Real-time payments have gained traction globally, with adoptions from over 70 countries on six continents. In 2022 alone, these transactions amounted to a staggering $195 billion, representing a remarkable year-over-year growth of 63%. India leads the pack with its Unified Payments Interface platform, processing a massive $89.5 billion in transaction volume. Other significant markets include Brazil, China, Thailand, and South Korea. The fact that real-time payments cannot be reversed promotes trust and ensures that contracts are upheld. This also encourages the development of new methods to make processes more efficient, like the ability to pay upon receiving the goods or services. These advancements are particularly crucial for small businesses, which disproportionately bear the burden of delayed payments, amounting to a staggering $3 trillion globally at any given time. The launch of FedNow marks a significant milestone in the U.S. financial landscape, propelling the country towards greater efficiency, transparency, and innovation in payments. However, it also brings a fair share of challenges, including the potential for increased fraud. Are real-time payments a catalyst for fraud? As the financial landscape evolves with the introduction of real-time payment systems, fraudsters are quick to exploit new technologies. One particular form of fraud that has gained prominence is authorized push payment (APP) fraud. APP fraud is a type of scam where fraudsters trick individuals or businesses into authorizing the transfer of funds from their bank accounts to accounts controlled by the fraudsters. The fraudster poses as a legitimate entity and deceives the victim into believing that there is an urgent need to transfer money. They gain the victim's trust and provide instructions for the transfer, typically through online or telephone banking channels. The victim willingly performs the payment, thinking it is legitimate, but realizes they have been scammed when communication halts. APP fraud is damaging as victims authorize the payments themselves, making it difficult for banks to recover the funds. To protect against APP fraud, it's important to be cautious, verify the legitimacy of requests independently, and report any suspicious activity promptly. Fraud detection and prevention with real-time payments Advances in fraud detection software, including machine learning and behavioral analytics, make unusual urgent requests and fake invoices easier to spot — in real time — but some governments are considering legislation to ensure more support for victims. For example, in the U.K., frameworks like Confirmation of Payee have rolled out instant account detail checks against the account holder’s name to help prevent cases of authorized push payment fraud. The U.K.’s real-time payments scheme Pay.UK also introduced the Mule Insights Tactical Solution (MITS), which tracks the flow of fraudulent transactions used in money laundering through bank and credit union accounts. It identifies these accounts and stops the proceeds of crimes from moving deeper into the system – and can help victims recover their funds. While fraud levels related to traditional payments have slowly come down, real-time payment-related fraud has recently skyrocketed. India, one of the primary innovators in the space, recorded a 23% rise in fraud related to its real-time payments system in 2022. The same ACI report stated that the U.S., making up only 1.2% of all real-time payment transactions in 2022, had, for now, avoided the effects. However, “there is no reason to assume that without action, the U.S. will not follow the path to crisis levels of APP scams as seen in other markets.” FedNow currently has no specific plans to bake fraud detection into their newly launched technology, meaning the response is left to financial institutions. Fight instant fraud with instant answers Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds tremendous potential in combating the ever-present threat of fraud. With AI technologies, financial institutions can process vast amounts of data points faster and enhance their fraud detection capabilities. This enables them to identify and flag suspicious transactions that deviate from the norm, mitigating identity risk and safeguarding customer accounts. The ability of AI-powered systems to ingest and analyze real-time information empowers institutions to stay one step ahead in the battle against account takeover fraud. This type of fraud, which poses a significant challenge to real-time payment systems, can be better addressed through AI-enabled tools. With ongoing monitoring of account behavior, such as the services provided by FraudNet, financial institutions gain a powerful weapon against APP fraud. In addition to behavioral analysis, location data has emerged as an asset in the fight against fraud. Incorporating location-based information into fraud detection algorithms has proven effective in pinpointing suspicious activities and reducing fraudulent incidents. As the financial industry continues to grapple with the constant evolution of fraud techniques, harnessing the potential of AI, coupled with comprehensive data analysis and innovative technologies, becomes crucial for securing the integrity of financial transactions. Taking your next step in the fight against fraud Ultimately, the effectiveness of fraud prevention measures depends on the implementation and continuous improvement of security protocols by financial institutions, regulators, and technology providers. By staying vigilant and employing appropriate safeguards, fraud risks in real-time payment systems, such as FedNow, can be minimized. To learn more about how Experian can help you leverage fraud prevention solutions, visit us online or request a call. *This article leverages/includes content created by an AI language model and is intended to provide general information.
Online transactions face a higher chance of being declined because face-to-face transactions come with a higher degree of confidence. Businesses who fail to address this problem run the risk of losing the customer permanently, damaging their reputation and bottom line. What can e-commerce marketplace merchants do to increase the approval rate of online payments without making fraud worse? Here are three tips: 1. Broaden access to data beyond what’s in the authorization stream. Merchants use a variety of solutions to prevent fraud and verify identities, but typically use very limited data to approve a transaction through the authorization stream between a merchant and issuer. The issuing bank often only compares the purchase data to the address listed on the card owner’s account, which can create discrepancies when a customer is trying to send an order to an alternate address from their primary home. That’s why it’s important for merchants to augment their decisioning with additional data sources to help inform the true customer risk profile. 2. Leverage capabilities that can assess risk for both the transaction and the individual behind it. Today, merchants leverage limited data including email address data, device information and other technologies in silos to augment their address verification capabilities. The challenge with these tools is that each judge the risk of a specific component of the transaction or the individual. Where integration is lacking, false positives are amplified. 3. Collaborate and share expertise and data across merchants and issuers. How can Experian help? Leveraging our multidimensional data, technical expertise and advanced analytics capabilities, we can help businesses frictionlessly authenticate valid customers, thus increasing revenue by increased approval rates, without increasing fraud or operating expenses. Only Experian Link™, our frictionless credit card owner verification solution can associate payment card with its owner. This solution combines Experian’s vast data assets – including over 500 million credit card account numbers on file in the U.S. across 250 million consumers – with our advanced analytics capabilities to match and assess the risk of the identity attributes presented to the merchant to the identity attributes contributed by the credit card’s issuer and to Experian’s network of credit and identity inquiries. The result: Experian Link’s patent-pending REST API simply and frictionlessly improves a merchant’s customer experience and helps increase revenue while reducing their fraud and operating expenses. Get started with Experian Link™ now. Experian Link
Today’s lending market has seen a significant increase in alternative business lending, with companies utilizing new data assets and technology. As the lending landscape becomes increasingly competitive, consumers have more choices than ever when it comes to lending products. To drive profitable growth, lenders must find new ways to help applicants gain access to the loans they need. How Spring EQ is leveraging Experian BoostTM Home equity lender Spring EQ turned to Experian’s first-of-its-kind financial tool that empowers consumers to add positive payments directly into their credit file to assist applicants with attaining the best loan opportunities and rates. By using Experian BoostTM, which captures the value of consumer’s utility and telecom trade lines, in their current lending process, Spring EQ can help applicants near approval or risk thresholds move to higher risk tiers and qualify for better loan terms and conditions. Driving growth with consumer-permissioned data Over 40 million consumers in the U.S. either have no credit file or have insufficient information in their files to generate a traditional credit score. Consumer-permissioned data empowers these individuals to leverage their online financial data and payment histories to gain better access to loans and other financial services while providing lenders with a more comprehensive view of their creditworthiness. According to Experian research, 70% of consumers see the benefits of sharing additional financial information and contributing positive payment history to their credit file if it increases their odds of approval and helps them access more favorable credit terms. Read our case study for more insight on using Experian Boost to: Make better lending decisions Offer or underwrite credit to more people Promote the right credit products Increase conversion and utilization rates Read case study Learn more about Experian Boost
In today’s age of digital transformation, consumers have easy access to a variety of innovative financial products and services. From lending to payments to wealth management and more, there is no shortage in the breadth of financial products gaining popularity with consumers. But one market segment in particular – unsecured personal loans – has grown exceptionally fast. According to a recent Experian study, personal loan originations have increased 97% over the past four years, with fintech share rapidly increasing from 22.4% of total loans originated to 49.4%. Arguably, the rapid acceleration in personal loans is heavily driven by the rise in digital-first lending options, which have grown in popularity due to fintech challengers. Fintechs have earned their position in the market by leveraging data, advanced analytics and technology to disrupt existing financial models. Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions (FIs) have taken notice and are beginning to adopt some of the same methods and alternative credit approaches. With this evolution of technology fused with financial services, how are fintechs faring against traditional FIs? The below infographic uncovers industry trends and key metrics in unsecured personal installment loans: Still curious? Click here to download our latest eBook, which further uncovers emerging trends in personal loans through side-by-side comparisons of fintech and traditional FI market share, portfolio composition, customer profiles and more. Download now
The universe has been used as a metaphor for many things – vast, wide, intangible – much like the credit universe. However, while the man on the moon, a trip outside the ozone layer, and all things space from that perspective may seem out of touch, there is a new line of access to consumers. In Experian's latest 2019 State of Alternative Credit Data report, consumers and lenders alike weigh in on the growing data set and how they are leveraging the data in use cases across the lending lifecycle. While the topic of alternative credit data is no longer as unfamiliar as it may have been a year or two ago, the capabilities and benefits that can be experienced by financial institutions, small businesses and consumers are still not widely known. Did you know?: - 65% of lenders say they are using information beyond the traditional credit report to make a lending decision. - 58% of consumers agree that having the ability to contribute payment history to their credit file make them feel empowered. - 83% of lenders agree that digitally connecting financial account data will create efficiencies in the lending process. These and other consumer and lender perceptions of alternative credit data are now launched with the latest edition of the State of Alternative Credit Data whitepaper. This year’s report rounds up the different types of alternative credit data (from alternative financial services data to consumer-permissioned account data, think Experian BoostTM), as well as an overview of the regulatory landscape, and a number of use cases across consumer and small business lending. In addition, consumers also have a lot to say about alternative credit data: With the rise of machine learning and big data, lenders can collect more data than ever, facilitating smarter and more precise decisions. Unlock your portfolio’s growth potential by tapping into alternative credit data to expand your consumer universe. Learn more in the 2019 State of Alternative Credit Data Whitepaper. Read Full Report View our 2020 State of Alternative Credit Data Report for an updated look at how consumers and lenders are leveraging alternative credit data.
The economy is accelerating at a sluggish pace, and world headlines cause business leaders to swing between optimism and pessimism daily. Risk managers must look more closely and much more frequently at their customers' behavior to stay ahead of emerging credit problems. Some tips: Use all customer information when making decisions. Combining both internal and external data can paint a clearer picture of your customers. Identify the customer relationships that have value and should be retained. Apply resources accordingly. Implement daily triggers so you have the latest customer information around bankruptcy, repossession or loan delinquency, as well as positive information such as payments made to other financial institutions. Spend more time examining consumers who are delinquent on their home mortgage payments to determine their behavior on your portfolio. Use next-generation collections software to keep collectors up to date on account-level strategies. Download our white paper on how changes in the economy have impacted consumer credit behavior and what risk managers should analyze in order to determine portfolio strategies. Source: Experian News