Data & Analytics
As soon as the holiday decorations are packed away and Americans reign in the New Year, the advertisements shift to two of our favorite themes – weight loss and taxes. No wonder the “blues” kick in during February. While taxes aren’t due until April 17, the months of January, February and March have consumers prepping to file. Coincidentally, it is also a big season for lenders to collect after the high-spending months of October through December. “Knowing which of your customers may receive a refund is critical,” said Colleen Rose, an Experian product manager specializing in the collections industry. “This information can help lenders create a strategy to capitalize on this important segment during the compressed collections window.” The industry has become more familiar with trended data and its ability to predict how consumers are faring on the credit score slider, but many don’t know that it has also proven popular in identifying people who may get a tax refund, and who is likely to use a refund to pay down delinquent balances. The past two tax seasons are evaluated to provide a complete picture of a customer’s behavior during tax refund season. Balance, credit limit and other historical fields are incorporated with tradeline-level data to determine who paid down their delinquent balances during this time. According to the IRS, in fiscal year 2016, the average individual income tax refund was about $3,050, so it’s a prime time for consumers to come into some unexpected cash to either pay down debt or spend. It’s estimated that 35% of consumers who get a refund will pay down debt. “Using Experian’s trended data attributes, we’ve identified past-due customers who paid down a delinquent tradeline balance by at least 10% and made a large payment during tax season,” said Rose. “With these specific attributes, we can help clients target a very desirable population during the critical collections months, helping them to refine their campaigns and create offers geared toward this population.” Anticipating who is likely to receive a refund and use it to pay down debt can influence how collections departments develop their messaging, call outreach and mailings. And for consumers who owe multiple debts, these well-timed touchpoints and messages could influence who they pay back first. The collectors with the best data, once again win, with trended data providing the secret sauce for predictions. ‘Tis the season for taxes.
You just finished redeveloping an existing scorecard, and now it’s time to replace the old with the new. If not properly planned, switching from one scorecard to another within a decisioning or scoring system can be disruptive. Once a scorecard has been redeveloped, it’s important to measure the impact of changes within the strategy as a result of replacing the old model with the new one. Evaluating such changes and modifying the strategy where needed will not only optimize strategy performance, but also maximize the full value of the newly redeveloped model. Such an impact assessment can be completed with a swap set analysis. The phrase swap set refers to “swapping out” a set of customer accounts — generally bad accounts — and replacing them with, or “swapping in,” a set of good customer accounts. Swap-ins are the customer population segment you didn’t previously approve under the old model but would approve with the new model. Swap-outs are the customer population segment you previously approved with the old model but wouldn’t approve with the new model. A worthy objective is to replace bad accounts with good accounts, thereby reducing the overall bad rate. However, different approaches can be used when evaluating swap sets to optimize your strategy and keep: The same overall bad rate while increasing the approval rate. The same approval rate while lowering the bad rate. The same approval and bad rate but increase the customer activation or customer response rates. It’s also important to assess the population that doesn’t change — the population that would be approved or declined using either the old or new model. The following chart highlights the three customer segments within a swap set analysis. With the incumbent model, the bad rate is 8.3%. With the new model, however, the bad rate is 4.9%. This is a reduction in the bad rate of 3.4 percentage points or a 41% improvement in the bad rate. This type of planning also is beneficial when replacing a generic model with another or a custom-developed model. Click here to learn more about how the Experian Decision Analytics team can help you manage the impacts of migrating from a legacy model to a newly developed model.
Alternative Data Shedding New Light on Consumers Why Investors Want Alternative Data Banks and Tech Firms Battle Over Something Akin to Gold: Your Data Alternative data for credit has created national headlines in the past year and a lasting buzz in the financial services world. But what exactly qualifies as alternative data in credit? How can it benefit lenders? Consumers? Ask two people these questions and you may get very different answers. Experian defines alternative data as FCRA-compliant data points that are not typically considered when evaluating a potential customer’s creditworthiness. These data points may include rent payments; utility payments, including gas, electric; telecommunications payments, such as mobile telephones; insurance payments; and any other recurring financial obligations. Taking these alternative data points into account can benefit consumers and lenders in multiple ways. Consider that roughly 45 million Americans have either no credit history, or a credit history that is too scarce or outdated to manufacture a credit score. This group of consumers includes not only minority consumers or those from low income neighborhoods, but also the shared economy workforce and millennials without traditional credit histories. Some estimate 121 million U.S. adults are credit-challenged with thin-to-no credit file and subprime credit scores below 600. “People with little or no credit history, or who lack a credit score, have fewer opportunities to borrow money to build a future, and any credit that is available usually costs more,” said Richard Cordray, while he was director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Indeed, these consumers are in a catch-22; many lenders will not lend to consumers with credit scores of under 620. In turn, these consumers have trouble building credit, and they are blocked from achieving goals like buying a car, owning a home or starting a business. By combining credit reports with alternative data, a more complete picture of subprime, near-prime and thin-file consumers can develop. And analysis of this data can help lenders evaluate a consumer’s ability to pay. When alternative data like rent payments and an individual’s short term lending history are trended appropriately, it can be an accurate predictor of an individual’s financial behavior, and can be an important step toward promoting greater financial inclusion for more consumers. In addition to using alternative data in underwriting, lenders can leverage the data to help with: Expanding the prospecting universe. Data can be used to enrich batch prospecting decisioning criteria to identify better qualified prospects, suppress high-risk consumers, and offer a more complete borrowing history Account review. Alternative data can help signal a consumer’s financial distress earlier, better manage credit lines and grow relationships with existing consumers. Collections. Identify consumers who are rebuilding credit with specialty finance trades, or who are exhibiting high-risk behaviors in the alternative financial services space. More info on Alternative Credit Data More Info on Alternative Financial Services
As we enter the holiday season, headlines abound around the shifts and trends in retail. How are consumers shopping? What are they buying online versus in-store? How can retailers maintain share and thrive? To gain some fresh perspective on the retail space, we interviewed John Squire, CEO and co-founder of DynamicAction, a business featuring advanced analytics solutions designed specifically for eCommerce, store and omnichannel retail teams. Squire has had a tenured career in the retail and technology sectors serving in key executive roles for IBM Smarter Commerce and Coremetrics. He has spent the past decade guiding nearly every retail brand to a better understanding of their customers and utilization of their data to make profitable decisions. Business headlines claim we are in the midst of a retail apocalypse. Is this statement a reality? The reality is that retail is in a renaissance – a revolution driven by the most empowered, connected consumer in history, a burgeoning technology infrastructure and retail tech innovators who have disrupted the status quo. The most agile of retailers and brands are leaning forward to serve their customer with remarkable experiences in the store, online and anywhere the customer decides to interact with the brand. And for those retailers, the days ahead are filled with newfound opportunity. However, the retailers and brands who don’t have a strong core purpose beyond being filler between anchor stores may no longer have a place in this new world of retail. The strongest retailers and brands will tap into their wealth of customer data to better understand, and therefore better serve their customers, creating long-term relationships. They should only continue gain in strength as consumers concentrate more and more of their time (and wallets) with businesses that passionately focus on their unique needs and buying patterns. It seems like shoppers are increasingly turning online to make their purchases. Is this the case, and do we see seasonal spikes with this trend? The key for successful retailers is to understand that customers aren’t just searching, browsing, buying and returning online OR in-store. They are shopping online AND in-store … and even online while in-store. Shoppers simply do not see channels, and the sooner that retailers reorganize their mindset, their organizations and their data understanding around this reality, the more successful they will become. Shoppers are indeed moving online with increasing frequency and larger amounts of their overall spending. Connecting data across the enterprise, across their partners and across social channels is critical in enabling their retailing teams to make decisions on how best to simultaneously serve their customers and their company’s shareholders. If retailers have a store credit card to offer to consumers, how can they encourage use and get them to maximize spend? Are there particular strategies they should employ? As with any loyalty program or service item, consumers are looking for tools and offers they value. Therein lies the opportunity and the challenge. Value can come in many forms, depending on the individual. Does the credit card offer travel or retail points, or dollars that they can accumulate? Does the credit card save them time? Provide them with additional purchasing power? Reduce their friction of making large purchases? Increase the security of the initial purchase and long-time use of the product or service? The competition for just a consumer’s current and future wallet is being upended by retailing offers that are serving up entertainment, services, convenience and broader product selections. Understanding the high-value activities correlated to their VIP consumers generating the highest amount of profit for the business is the essential to building strategies for encouraging card use. Beyond online shopping, are there other retail trends you see emerging in the coming year? What excites you about the space? Online shopping is not a trend; it is retail’s greatest disruption of the last 100 years. Digitization of shopping in both the online and store setting is what thrills me. One to watch is Wal-mart. The company is taking a highly energized track to build a business of next-gen brands and using their supply chain acumen to battle Amazon, while simultaneously gaining huge amounts of market share from other less sophisticated and strong retailers. In addition, seeing how next-gen brands like Warby Parker, Everlane, Untuckit, Bonobos, Indochino and Rent the Runway are rapidly building out a store experience, albeit radically different than the stores of the past, is exciting to watch. Seeing the growth in Drone deliveries outside the US for retail and commercial applications is surely the next big jump for ‘Next Hour’ in-home delivery. Made-to-order with a very short lead-time is also a big trend to keep an eye on. However, what excites me most in the industry is the universal mind shift that is becoming undeniable in retail: that data understanding and action will be the very basis for customer centricity and companies’ growth. Retailers have had access to these data pools for ages, but the ability to sync the data sets across channels, make sense of the findings and take action at the speed the consumer expects is truly the next leap forward for great retailers. To learn more about the state of retail credit cards, access our latest report.
If someone asked you for stats on your retail card portfolio, would you respond with the number of accounts? Average spend per month? Or maybe you know the average revolving balance and profitability. Notice something about that list? Too many lenders think of their portfolio and customers as numbers when in reality these are individuals expressing themselves through their transactions. In an age where consumers increasingly expect customized experiences, marketing to account #5496115149251 is likely to fall on deaf ears. Credit card transaction data including bankcard, retail, and debit cards holds a wealth of information about your consumers' tastes and preferences. Think about all the purchases you made using a credit card this past month. Did you shop at high-end retail stores or discount stores? Expensive restaurants or fast food? Did you buy new clothes for your kids? Maybe you went to the movies, or met friends at a bar. How you use your card paints a picture of who you are. The trick is turning all those numbers into insights. You may have been swept up in all the excitement around Apple’s announcement of the iPhone X in August. However, you may have overlooked the incorporation of Neural Embedding, or machine learning, as one of the most powerful features of the new phone. Experian DataLabs has developed an innovative approach to analyzing transaction data using similar techniques. Unstructured machine learning is applied and patterns begin to emerge around customer spending. The patterns are highly intuitive and give personality to what was previously an indecipherable stream of data. For example, one group may be more likely to spend on children’s clothing, child care services, and theme parks while another spends on expensive restaurants, airlines, and golf courses. If these two consumers happened to spend approximately the same each month on your card, you’d probably treat them as category. But understanding one is a young family and their other is jet setter allows you to tailor messaging, offers, and terms to their needs and use of your products. Further, you can ensure they have the best product based on their lifestyle to minimize silent attrition as their needs evolve. But it’s not just about marketing. When your latest attrition dashboard is updated, what period are you measuring? Do you analyze account closures from the previous month? Maybe a few months back? Understanding churn is important, but it’s inherently reactive and backward looking. You wouldn’t drive a car looking in the rearview mirror, would you? Experian enables clients to actively monitor the portfolio for attrition risk by analyzing usage patterns and predicting future spend. Transactions are then monitored up to daily and, when spend doesn’t occur as expected, an alert is sent so you can proactively attempt to save the account before it closes. These algorithms are finely tuned to reduce false positives that can come from seasonality or predictable gaps in spend such as only using a card at certain times during the week. Most importantly, it gives you an opportunity to manage each account and address changing customer needs instead of waiting for customers to call to cancel. So how well do you know your customers? If you’re still looking at them as numbers, it may be time to explore new capabilities that allow you to act small, no matter how large your portfolio. Transaction Data Insights brings cutting-edge machine learning capabilities to lenders of all sizes. By digging into behavioral segments and having tools to monitor and send alerts when a consumer is showing signs of attrition risk, card portfolios can suddenly treat customers like people, providing the customized experience they increasingly expect.
In 2017, 81 percent of U.S. Americans have a social media profile, representing a five percent growth compared to the previous year. Pick your poison. Facebook. Instagram. Twitter. Snapchat. LinkedIn. The list goes on, and it is clear social media is used by all. Grandma and grandpa are hooked, and tweens are begging for accounts. Factor in the amount of data being generated by our social media obsession – one report claims Americans are using 2,675,700 GB of Internet data per minute – and it makes some lenders wonder if social media insights can be used to assess credit risk. Can banks, credit unions and online lenders look at social media profiles when making a loan decision and garner intel to help them make a credit decision? After all, in some circles, people believe a person’s character is just as important as their income and assets when making a lending decision. Certainly, some businesses are seeing value in collecting social media insights for marketing purposes. An individual’s interests, likes and click-throughs reveal a lot about their lifestyle and potential brand linkages. But credit decisions are different. In fact, there are two key concerns when considering social media data as it pertains to financial decisions. There is that little rule called the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, which states credit must be extended to all creditworthy applicants regardless of race, religion, gender, marital status, age and other personal characteristics. A quick scan of any Facebook profile can reveal these things, and more. Credit applications do not ask for these specific details for this very reason. Social media data can also be manipulated. One can “like” financial articles, participate in educational quizzes and represent themselves as if they are financially responsible. Social media can be gamed. On the flip side, a consumer can’t manipulate their payment history. There is no question that data is essential for all aspects of the financial services industry, but when it comes to making credit decisions on a consumer, FCRA data trumps everything. In the consumer’s best interest, it is essential that credit data be both displayable and disputable. The right data must be used. For lenders, their primary goal is to assess a consumer’s stability, ability and willingness to pay. Today, social media can’t address those needs. It’s not to say that social media data can’t be used in the future, but financial institutions are still grappling with how it can be predictive of credit behavior over time. In the meantime, other sources of data are being evaluated. Everything from including on-time utility and rental payments, insights on smaller dollar loans and various credit attributes can help to provide a more holistic view of today’s credit consumer. There is no question social media data will continue to grow exponentially. But in the world of credit decisioning, the “like” button cannot be given quite yet.
We regularly hear from clients that charge-offs are increasing and they’re struggling to keep up with the credit loss. Many clients use the same debt collection strategy they’ve used for years – when businesses or consumers can’t repay a loan, the creditor or collection agency aggressively contacts them via phone or mail to obtain repayment – never considering the customer experience for the debtor. Our data shows that consumers accounted for $37.24 billion in bankcard charge-offs in Q2 2017, a 17.1 percent increase from Q2 2016. Absorbing credit losses at such a high rate can impact the sustainability of the institution. Clearly the process could use some adjusting. Traditionally, debt collection has been solely about the money. The priority was ensuring that as much of the outstanding debt as possible was repaid. But collecting needs to be about more than that. It also should focus on the customer and his or her individual situation. When it comes to debt collection, customers should not all be treated the same way. I recently shared some tips in Credit Union Business Magazine about how to actively engage and collect from members. The same holds true for other financial institutions – they need to know the difference between a customer who has simply forgotten to make a payment and one who is dealing with financial hardship. As an example, if a person is current on his or her mortgage payment but has slipped behind on his or her credit card payment, that doesn’t necessarily signify financial hardship. It’s an opportunity to work with the customer to manage the debt and get back to current. Modern financial institutions build acquisition and customer management strategies targeted at individuals, so why should the collection process be any different? The challenge is keeping the customer at the center while also managing against potential increases in delinquencies. This holistic approach may be slightly more complex, but technology and analytics will simplify the process and bring about a more engaging experience for customers. The Power of Data and Technology Instead of relying on the same outdated collections approach – which results in uncomfortable exchanges on the phone that don’t ensure repayment –leverage data to your advantage. The data and technology exists to help you make more informed decisions, such as: What’s the most effective communication channel to reach the defaulting customer? When should you contact him or her? How often? The best course of action could be high-touch outreach, but sometimes doing nothing is the right approach. It all depends on the situation. Data and analytics can help uncover which customers are most likely to pay on their own and those who may need a little more help, allowing you to adjust your treatment strategy accordingly. By catering to the preferences of the customer, there’s a greater chance for a positive experience on both sides. The results: less charge-off debt, higher customer satisfaction and a stronger relationship. Explore the Digital Age In 2016, 36 million Americans made some form of mobile payment—paying a bill, purchasing something online, or paying for fast food, or making a Mobile Wallet purchase at a retailer. By 2020, nearly 184 million consumers will have done so, according to Aite. Consumers expect and deserve convenience. In the digital world, financial institutions have an opportunity to provide that expectation and then some. Imagine a customer being able to negotiate and manage his or her past-due account virtually, in the privacy of his or her own home, when it’s most convenient, to set their payment dates and terms. Luckily, the technology exists to make this vision a reality. Customers, not money, need to be at the heart of every debt collections strategy. Gone are the days of mass phone calls to debtors. That strategy made consumers unhappy, embarrassed and resentful. Successful debt collection comes down to a basic philosophy: Treat customers and his or her unique situation individually rather than as a portfolio profile. The creditors who live by that philosophy have an opportunity to reap the rewards on the back-end.
School is nearly back in session. You know what that means? The next wave of college students is taking out their first student loans. It’s a milestone moment – and likely the first trade on the credit file for many of these individuals. According to the College Board, the average cost of tuition and fees for the 2016–2017 school year was $33,480 at private colleges, $9,650 for state residents at public colleges, and $24,930 for out-of-state residents attending public universities. So really, regardless of where students go, the cost of a college education is big. In fact, from January 2006 to July 2016, the Consumer Price Index for college tuition and fees increased 63 percent. So, unless mom and dad did a brilliant job saving, chances are many of today’s students will take on at least some debt to foot the college bill. But it’s not just the young who are consumed by student loan debt. In Experian’s latest State of Student Lending report, we dive into how the $1.4 trillion in student loan debt for Americans is impacting all generations in regards to credit scores, debt load and delinquencies. The document additionally looks at geographical trends, noting which states have the most consumers with student loan debt and which ones have the least. Overall, we discovered 13.4% of U.S. consumers have one or more student loan balances on their credit file with an average total balance of $34k. Additionally, these consumers have an average of 3.7 student loans with 1.2 student loans in deferment. The average VantageScore® credit score for student loan carriers is 650. As we looked across the generations, every group – from the Silents (age 70+) to Gen Z (oldest are between 18 to 20) had some student loan debt. While we can make assumptions that the Silents and Boomers are likely taking out these loans to support the educational pursuits of their children and grandchildren, it can be mixed for Gen X, who might still be paying off their own loans and/or supporting their own kids. Gen X members also reported the largest average student loan total balance at $39,802. Gen Z, the newest members to the credit file, have just started to attend college, thus their generation has the largest percent of student loan balances in deferment at 77%. Their average student loan total balance is also the lowest of all generations at $11,830, but that is to be expected given their young ages. In regards to geographical trends, the Northern states tended to sport the highest average student loan total balances, with consumers in Washington D.C. winning that race with $52.5k. Southern states, on the other hand, reported higher percentages of consumers with student loan balances 90+ days past due. South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and Texas held the top spots in the delinquency category. Access the complete State of Student Lending report. Data from this report is representative of student loan data on file as of June 2017.
There’s no shortage of headlines alluding to a student loan crisis. But is there a crisis brewing or is this just a headline grab? Let’s look at the data over the past 4 years to find out. Outstanding student loan (should be loan) debt grew 21%, reaching a high of $1.49 trillion in Q4 2016. Over the past 4 years, student loan trades grew 4%, with a slight decline from 2015 to 2016. Average balance per trade grew 17% to reach $8,210. Number of overall student loan trades per consumer is down 5% to just 3.85. The average person with a student loan balance had just over $32,000 outstanding at the end of 2016 — a rise of 15%. While we’re seeing some increases, the data tells us this is a media headline grab. If students are educated about the debt they’re acquiring and are confident they can repay it, student loan debt shouldn’t be a crippling burden. More student loan insights
We live in a digital world where online identities are ubiquitous. But with the internet’s inherent anonymity, how do you know you’re interacting with a legitimate individual rather than an imposter? Too often we hear stories about consumers who see unauthorized purchases on their credit cards, enable access to their devices based on an imposter claiming to be a security vendor or send money to someone they met online only to learn they’ve been “catfished” by a fraudster. These are growing problems, as more consumers transition to digital services and look to businesses to protect them, enable seamless trusted interactions and maintain their privacy. I recently chatted with MarketWatch about how consumers can protect themselves and their privacy when using online dating apps, as well as what businesses are doing to safeguard digital data. As part of the discussion, I mentioned that a simple, standard verification process companies of all sizes can leverage is vital to our rapidly evolving digital economy. Today, companies have their own policies, processes and definitions of identity verification, depending on the services they offer. This ranges from secure access requiring strong identity proofing, document verification, multifactor authentication and biometric enrollment to new social profiles that do little more than validate receipt of an email to establish an online account. To satisfy those diverse risk-based needs, more organizations are turning to federated identity verification options. A federated system allows businesses to leverage trusted, reputable, third-party sources to validate identity by cross-referencing the information they’ve received from a consumer against these sources to determine whether to establish an account or allow a transaction. While some organizations have attempted to develop similar identity verification capabilities, many lack a trusted identity source. For example, there are solutions that leverage data from social media accounts or provide multifactor fraud and authentication options, but they often become easily compromised because of the absence of verifiable data. A trusted solution aggregates data across multiple providers that have undergone thorough security and data quality vetting to ensure the identity data is accurately submitted in accordance with business and compliance requirements. In fact, there are only a handful of trusted identity sources with this level of due diligence and oversight. At Experian, we assess verification requests against an aggregate of hundreds of millions of records that include identity relationships, profile risk attributes, historical usage records and demographic data assets. With decades of knowledge about identity management and fraud prevention, we help companies of all sizes balance risk mitigation and maintain compliance requirements — all while ensuring consumer data privacy. Trust takes years to build and mere seconds to lose, and the industry has made undeniable progress in security. But there is much left to do. Consumers are increasingly involved in the protection and use of their data. However, they often don’t realize downloading a hot new app and entering personal details or linking to their friends exposes them to unnecessary risk. It’s important for businesses to be clear about their identity verification processes so consumers can make educated decisions before electing to provide invaluable identity data. The most effective fraud prevention and identity strategy is one that quickly establishes trust without inconveniencing the consumer. By staying up to date on verification methods, businesses can ensure customers have a smooth, personalized and engaging online experience.
Many institutions take a “leap of faith” when it comes to developing prospecting strategies as it pertains to credit marketing. But effective strategies are developed from deep, analytical analysis with clearly identified objectives. They are constantly evolving – no setting and forgetting. So what are the basics to optimizing your prospecting efforts? Establish goals Unfortunately, far too many discussions begin with establishing targeting criteria before program goals are set. But this leads to confusion. Developing targeting criteria is kind of like squeezing a balloon; when you restrict one end, the other tends to expand. Imagine the effect of maximizing response rates when soliciting new loans. If no other criteria are considered, you could end up targeting high-risk individuals who cannot get approved elsewhere. Obviously, we’re not interested in increasing originations at all cost; risk must be understood as well. But this is where things get complicated. Lower-risk consumers tend to be the most coveted, get the best offers, and therefore have lower response rates and margins. Simplicity is best The US Navy developed the KISS acronym (keep it simple, stupid) in the 1960s on the philosophy that complexity increases the probability of error. This is largely true in targeting methodologies, but don’t mistake limiting complexity for simplicity. Perhaps the most simplistic approach to prescreen credit marketing is using only risk criteria to set an eligible population. Breaking a problem down to this single dimension generally results in low response rates and wasted budget. Propensity models and estimated interest rates are great tools for identifying consumers that are more likely to respond. Adding them as an additional filter to a credit-qualified population can help increase response rates. But what about ability to pay? So far we’ve considered propensity to open and risk (the latter being based on current financial obligations). Imagine a consumer with on-time payment behavior and a solid credit score who takes a loan only to be unable to meet their obligations. You certainly don’t want to extend debt that will cause a consumer to be overextended. Instead of going through costly income verification, income estimation models can assist with identifying the ability to repay the loan you are marketing. Simplicity is great, but not to the point of being one-dimensional. Take off the blindfold Even in the days of smartphones and GPS navigation, most people develop a plan before setting off on a road trip. In the case of credit marketing, this means running an account review or archive analysis. Remember that last prescreen campaign you ran? What could have happened with a more sophisticated targeting strategy? Having archive data appended to a past marketing campaign allows for “what if” retrospective analysis. What could response rates have been with a propensity tool? Could declines due to insufficient income have been reduced with estimated income? Archive data gives 20/20 hindsight to what could have been. Just like consulting a map to determine the shortest distance to a destination or the most scenic route, retrospective analysis on past campaigns allows for proactive planning for future efforts. Practice makes perfect Even with a plan, you probably still want to have the GPS running. Traffic could block your planned route or an unforeseen detour could divert you to a new path. Targeting strategies must continually be refined and monitored for changes in customer behavior. Test and control groups are essential to continued improvement of your targeting strategies. Every campaign should be analyzed against the goals and KPIs established at the start of the process. New hypotheses can be evaluated through test populations or small groups designed to identify new opportunities. Let’s say you typically target consumers in a risk range of 650-720, but an analyst spots an opportunity where consumers with a range of 625-649 with no delinquencies in the past 12 months performs nearly at the rate of the current population. A small test group could be included in the next campaign and studied to see if it should be expanded in future campaigns. Never “place bets” Assumptions are only valid when they are put to the test. Never dive into a strategy without testing your hypothesis. The final step in implementing a targeting strategy should be the easiest. If goals are clearly understood and prioritized, past campaigns are analyzed, and hypotheses are laid out with test and control groups, the targeting criteria should be obvious to everyone. Unfortunately, the conversation usually starts at this phase, which is akin to placing bets at the track. Ever notice that score breaks are discussed in round numbers? Consider the example of the 650-720 range. Why 650 and not 649 or 651? Without a test and learn methodology, targeting criteria ends up based on conventional wisdom – or worse, a guess. As you approach strategic planning season, make sure you run down these steps (in this order) to ensure success next year. Establish program goals and KPIs Balance simplicity with effectiveness Have a plan before you start Begin with an archive Learn and optimize In God we trust, all others bring data
Historical data that illustrates lower credit card use and increases in payments is key to finding consumers whose credit trajectory is improving. But positive changes in consumer behavior—especially if it happens slowly over time—don’t necessarily impact a consumer’s credit score. And many lenders are missing out on capturing new business by failing to take a closer look. It’s easy to categorize consumers by their credit score alone, but you owe it to your bottom line to investigate further: Are the consumer’s overall payments increasing? Is his credit card utilization decreasing? Are the overall card balances remaining consistent or declining? Could the consumer be within your credit score guidelines within a month or two? And most importantly, could a competitor acquire the consumer a month or two after you declined him? Identifying new customers who previously used credit responsibly is relatively easy since they typically have rich credit profiles that may include a mortgage and numerous types of credit accounts. But how do you evaluate consumers who may look identical? Trended data and attributes provide insight into whether a consumer is headed in the right direction: With more than 613 trended attributes available for real-time decisioning and for batch campaigns, Experian trends key factors that provide the insight needed for lenders to lend deeper without sacrificing credit quality. Looking at trended data and attributes is critical for portfolio growth, and credit line increases based on good credit behavior is a must for lenders for two reasons. First, you’ve already spent the money acquiring the consumer and you should not waste the opportunity to maximize returns. Second, competition is fierce; another lender could reward the consumer for great credit behavior they’ve displayed with your company. Be there first, be consistent, or be left behind. Use Experian’s Payment Stress Attributes and Short-term Utilization Attributes in custom scores or swap-set strategies in order to find quality customers who may be worthy of line increases or other attribute credit terms. Look to trended data to swap in consumers who may fall within a few points under your credit score guidelines, and reward your existing customers before another lender does. Near-prime consumers of today are the prime consumers of tomorrow.
School’s out, and graduation brings excitement, anticipation and bills. Oh, boy, here come the student loans. Are graduates ready for the bills? Even before they have a job lined up? With lots of attention from the media, I was interested in analyzing student loan debt to see if this is a true issue or just a headline grab. There’s no shortage of headlines alluding to a student loan crisis: “How student loans are crushing millennial entrepreneurialism” “Student loan debt in 2017: A $1.3 trillion crisis” “Why the student loan crisis is even worse than people think” Certainly sounds like a crisis. However, I’m a data guy, so let’s look at the data. Pulling from our data, I analyzed student loan trades for the last four years starting with outstanding debt — which grew 21 percent since 2013 to reach a high of $1.49 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2016. I then drilled down and looked at just student loan trades. Created with Highstock 5.0.7Total Number of Student Loans TradesStudent Loan Total TradesNumber of trades in millions174,961,380174,961,380182,125,450182,125,450184,229,650184,229,650181,228,130181,228,130Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016025M50M75M100M125M150M175M200MSource: Experian (function(){ function include(script, next) {var sc=document.createElement("script");sc.src = script;sc.type="text/javascript";sc.onload=function() {if (++next < incl.length) include(incl[next], next);};document.head.appendChild(sc);}function each(a, fn){if (typeof a.forEach !== "undefined"){a.forEach(fn);}else{for (var i = 0; i < a.length; i++){if (fn) {fn(a[i]);}}}}var inc = {},incl=[]; each(document.querySelectorAll("script"), function(t) {inc[t.src.substr(0, t.src.indexOf("?"))] = 1;});each(Object.keys({"https://code.highcharts.com/stock/highstock.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/adapters/standalone-framework.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts-more.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts-3d.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/modules/data.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/modules/exporting.js":1,"http://code.highcharts.com/modules/funnel.js":1,"http://code.highcharts.com/modules/solid-gauge.js":1}),function (k){if (!inc[k]) {incl.push(k)}});if (incl.length > 0) { include(incl[0], 0); } function cl() {if(typeof window["Highcharts"] !== "undefined"){new Highcharts.Chart("highcharts-79eb8e0a-4aa9-404c-bc5f-7da876c38b0f", {"chart":{"type":"column","inverted":true,"polar":false,"style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333","fontSize":"12px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"}},"plotOptions":{"series":{"dataLabels":{"enabled":true},"animation":true}},"title":{"text":"Student Loan Total Trades","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333333","fontSize":"18px","fontWeight":"bold","fontStyle":"normal","fill":"#333333","width":"792px"}},"subtitle":{"text":"","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"16px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal","fill":"#666666","width":"792px"}},"exporting":{},"yAxis":[{"title":{"text":"Number of trades in millions","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"16px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"}},"labels":{"format":""},"type":"linear"}],"xAxis":[{"title":{"style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"16px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"},"text":""},"reversed":true,"labels":{"format":"{value:}"},"type":"linear"}],"series":[{"data":[["Total Student Loans",174961380]],"name":"Q4 2013","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":0,"_symbolIndex":0},{"data":[["Total Student Loans",182125450]],"name":"Q4 2014","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":1,"_symbolIndex":1},{"data":[["Total Student Loans",184229650]],"name":"Q4 2015","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":2,"_symbolIndex":2},{"data":[["Total Student Loans",181228130]],"name":"Q4 2016","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":3,"_symbolIndex":3}],"colors":["#26478d","#406eb3","#632678","#982881"],"legend":{"itemStyle":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333333","fontSize":"12px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal","cursor":"pointer"},"itemHiddenStyle":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#cccccc","fontSize":"18px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"},"layout":"horizontal","floating":false,"verticalAlign":"bottom","x":0,"align":"center","y":0},"credits":{"text":"Source: Experian"}});}else window.setTimeout(cl, 20);}cl();})(); Over the past four years, student loan trades grew 4 percent, but saw a slight decline between 2015 and 2016. The number of trades isn’t growing as fast as the amount of money that people need. The average balance per trade grew 17 percent to $8,210. Either people are not saving enough for college or the price of school is outpacing the amount people are saving. I shifted the data and looked at the individual consumer rather than the trade level. Created with Highstock 5.0.7Student Loan Average Balance per Trade4.044.043.933.933.893.893.853.85Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 201600.511.522.533.544.5Source: Experian (function(){ function include(script, next) {var sc=document.createElement("script");sc.src = script;sc.type="text/javascript";sc.onload=function() {if (++next < incl.length) include(incl[next], next);};document.head.appendChild(sc);}function each(a, fn){if (typeof a.forEach !== "undefined"){a.forEach(fn);}else{for (var i = 0; i < a.length; i++){if (fn) {fn(a[i]);}}}}var inc = {},incl=[]; each(document.querySelectorAll("script"), function(t) {inc[t.src.substr(0, t.src.indexOf("?"))] = 1;});each(Object.keys({"https://code.highcharts.com/stock/highstock.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/adapters/standalone-framework.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts-more.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts-3d.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/modules/data.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/modules/exporting.js":1,"http://code.highcharts.com/modules/funnel.js":1,"http://code.highcharts.com/modules/solid-gauge.js":1}),function (k){if (!inc[k]) {incl.push(k)}});if (incl.length > 0) { include(incl[0], 0); } function cl() {if(typeof window["Highcharts"] !== "undefined"){new Highcharts.Chart("highcharts-66c10c16-1925-40d2-918f-51214e2150cf", {"chart":{"type":"column","polar":false,"style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333","fontSize":"12px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"},"inverted":true},"plotOptions":{"series":{"dataLabels":{"enabled":true},"animation":true}},"title":{"text":"Student Loan Average Number of Trades per Consumer","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333333","fontSize":"18px","fontWeight":"bold","fontStyle":"normal","fill":"#333333","width":"356px"}},"subtitle":{"text":"","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"16px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal","fill":"#666666","width":"356px"}},"exporting":{},"yAxis":[{"title":{"text":"","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"14px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"}},"type":"linear","labels":{"format":"{value}"}}],"xAxis":[{"title":{"style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"14px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"}},"type":"linear","labels":{"format":"{}"}}],"colors":["#26478d","#406eb3","#632678","#982881","#ba2f7d"],"series":[{"data":[["Average Trades per Consumer",4.04]],"name":"Q4 2013","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":0},{"data":[["Average Trade per Consumer",3.93]],"name":"Q4 2014","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":1},{"data":[["Average Trade per Consumer",3.89]],"name":"Q4 2015","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":2},{"data":[["Average Trades per Consumer",3.85]],"name":"Q4 2016","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":3}],"legend":{"floating":false,"itemStyle":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333333","fontSize":"12px","fontWeight":"bold","fontStyle":"normal","cursor":"pointer"},"itemHiddenStyle":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#cccccc","fontSize":"18px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"},"layout":"horizontal"},"credits":{"text":"Source: Experian"}});}else window.setTimeout(cl, 20);}cl();})(); The number of overall student loan trades per consumer is down to 3.85, a decrease of 5 percent over the last four years. This is explained by an increase in loan consolidations as well as the better planning by students so that they don’t have to take more student loans in the same year. Lastly, I looked at the average balance per consumer. This is the amount that consumers, on average, owe for their student loan trades. Created with Highstock 5.0.7Balance in thousands ($)Quarterly $USD Debt per ConsumerQ4 Student Loan TrendsAverage Student Loan Debt Balance per Consumer27,93427,93429,22629,22630,52330,52332,06132,061Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 201605,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000Source: Experian (function(){ function include(script, next) {var sc=document.createElement("script");sc.src = script;sc.type="text/javascript";sc.onload=function() {if (++next < incl.length) include(incl[next], next);};document.head.appendChild(sc);}function each(a, fn){if (typeof a.forEach !== "undefined"){a.forEach(fn);}else{for (var i = 0; i < a.length; i++){if (fn) {fn(a[i]);}}}}var inc = {},incl=[]; each(document.querySelectorAll("script"), function(t) {inc[t.src.substr(0, t.src.indexOf("?"))] = 1;});each(Object.keys({"https://code.highcharts.com/stock/highstock.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/adapters/standalone-framework.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts-more.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts-3d.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/modules/data.js":1,"https://code.highcharts.com/modules/exporting.js":1,"http://code.highcharts.com/modules/funnel.js":1,"http://code.highcharts.com/modules/solid-gauge.js":1}),function (k){if (!inc[k]) {incl.push(k)}});if (incl.length > 0) { include(incl[0], 0); } function cl() {if(typeof window["Highcharts"] !== "undefined"){Highcharts.setOptions({lang:{"thousandsSep":","}});new Highcharts.Chart("highcharts-0b893a55-8019-4f1a-9ae1-70962e668355", {"chart":{"type":"column","inverted":true,"polar":false,"style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333","fontSize":"12px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"}},"plotOptions":{"series":{"dataLabels":{"enabled":true},"animation":true}},"title":{"text":"Average Student Loan Balance per Consumer","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333333","fontSize":"18px","fontWeight":"bold","fontStyle":"normal","fill":"#333333","width":"308px"}},"subtitle":{"text":"","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"16px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal","fill":"#666666","width":"792px"}},"exporting":{},"yAxis":[{"title":{"text":"Balance numbers are in thousands ($)","style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"16px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"}},"labels":{"format":"{value:,1f}"},"reversed":false}],"xAxis":[{"title":{"style":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#666666","fontSize":"16px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"},"text":"Balance in thousands ($)"},"labels":{"format":"{value:}"},"type":"linear","reversed":true,"opposite":false}],"series":[{"data":[["Average Balance per Consumer",27934]],"name":"Q4 2013","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":0},{"data":[["Average Balance per Consumer",29226]],"name":"Q4 2014","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":1},{"data":[["Average Balance per Consumer",30523]],"name":"Q4 2015","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":2},{"data":[["Average Balance per Consumer",32061]],"name":"Q4 2016","turboThreshold":0,"_colorIndex":3}],"colors":["#26478d","#406eb3","#632678","#982881"],"legend":{"itemStyle":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#333333","fontSize":"12px","fontWeight":"bold","fontStyle":"normal","cursor":"pointer"},"itemHiddenStyle":{"fontFamily":"Arial","color":"#cccccc","fontSize":"18px","fontWeight":"normal","fontStyle":"normal"}},"lang":{"thousandsSep":","},"credits":{"text":"Source: Experian"}});}else window.setTimeout(cl, 20);}cl();})(); Here we see a growth of 15 percent over the last four years. At the end of 2016, the average person with a student loan balance had just over $32,000 outstanding. While this is a large increase, we should compare it with other purchases: This balance is no more than a person purchasing a brand-new car without a down payment. While we’re seeing an increase in overall outstanding debt and individual loan balances, I’m not yet agreeing that this is the crisis the media portrays. If students are educated about the debt that they’re taking out and making sure that they’re able to repay it, the student loan market is performing as it should. It’s our job to help educate students and their families about making good financial decisions. These discussions need to be had before debt is taken out, so it’s not a shock to the student upon graduation.
Mitigating synthetic identities Synthetic identity fraud is an epidemic that does more than negatively affect portfolio performance. It can hurt your reputation as a trusted organization. Here is our suggested 4-pronged approach that will help you mitigate this type of fraud: Identify how much you could lose or are losing today to synthetic fraud. Review and analyze your identity screening operational processes and procedures. Incorporate data, analytics and cutting-edge tools to enable fraud detection through consumer authentication. Analyze your portfolio data quality as reported to credit reporting agencies. Reduce synthetic identity fraud losses through a multi-layer methodology design that combats both the rise in synthetic identity creation and use in fraud schemes. Mitigating synthetic identity fraud>
Call it big data, smart data or evidence-based decision-making. It’s not just the latest fad, it’s the future of how business will be guided and grow. Here are a few telling stats that show data is exploding and a new age is upon us: Data is growing faster than ever before, and we’re on track to create about 1.7 megabytes of new information per person every second by 2020. The social universe—which includes every digitally connected person—doubles in size every two years. By 2020, it will reach 44 zettabytes or 44 trillion gigabytes, according to CIO. In 2015, more than 1 billion people used Facebook and sent an average of 31.25 million messages and viewed 2.77 million videos each minute. More than 100 terabytes of data is uploaded daily to the social channel. By 2020, more than 6.1 billion smartphone users will exist globally. And there will be more than 50 billion smart connected devices in the world, all capable of collecting, analyzing and sharing a wealth of data. More than one-third of all data will pass through or exist in the cloud by 2020. The IDC estimates that by 2020, business transactions on the internet—business-to-business and business-to-consumer—will reach 450 billion per day. All of this new data means we’ll be looking at a whole new set of possibilities and a new level of complexity in the years ahead. The data itself is of great value, however, lenders need the right automated decisioning platform to store, collect, quickly process and analyze the volumes of consumer data to gain accurate consumer stories. While lenders don’t necessarily need to factor in decisioning on social media uploads and video views, there is an expectation for immediacy to know if a consumer is approved, denied or conditioned. Online lenders have figured out how to quickly capture and understand big data, and are expected to account for $122 billion in lending by 2020. This places more pressure on banks and credit unions to enhance their technology to cut down on loan approval times and move away from various manual touch points. Critics of automated decisioning solutions used in lending cite compliance issues, complacency by lenders and lack of human involvement. But a robust platform enables lenders to improve and supplement their current decisioning processes because it is: Agile: Experian hosts our client’s solutions and decisioning strategies, so we are able to make and deploy changes quickly as the needs of the market and business change, and deliver real-time instant decisions while a consumer is at the point of sale. A hosted environment also means reduced implementation timelines, as no software or hardware installation is required, allowing lenders to recognize value faster. A data work horse: Internal and external data can be pulled from multiple sources into a lender’s decisioning model. Lenders may also access an unlimited number of scores and attributes—including real-time access to credit bureau data—and integrate third-party data sources into the decisioning engine. Powerful: A robust decision engine is capable of calculating numerous predictive attributes and custom scoring models, and can also test new strategies against current decision models or perform “what if” simulations on historical data. Data collection, storage and analysis are here to stay. As will be the businesses which are savvy enough to use a solution that can find opportunities and learnings in all of that complex data, quickly curate the best possible actions to take for positive outcomes, and allow lenders and marketers to execute on those recommendations with the click of a button. To learn more about Experian’s decisioning solutions, you can additionally explore our PowerCurve and Attribute Toolbox solutions.