Credit & Risk

When discussing automotive lending, it seems like one term is on everyone’s lips: “subprime auto loan bubble.” But what is the data telling us?

New CFPB study demonstrates the importance of moving forward with inclusion of new sources of high-quality financial data — like on-time payment data from rent, utility and telecommunications providers — into a consumer’s credit file.

Experian took a deep dive into the data and performance surrounding the credit union universe in their first-ever “State of Credit Unions” report, featuring insights utilizing data from both 2015 and 2017.

According to State of the Automotive Finance Market report, 30-day delinquencies dropped and subprime auto lending reached a 10-year record low for Q1.

According to a study by VantageScore, consumers with credit scores between 601-650 carry the largest credit card bills, at more than $10,000.

Later this year, FICO will retire its Score V1, making it mandatory for those lenders still using the old software to find another solution.

For an industry that has grown accustomed to sustained year-over-year growth, recent trends are concerning. The automotive industry continued to make progress in the fourth quarter of 2016 as total automotive loan balances grew 8.6% over the previous year and exceeded $1 trillion. However, the positive trend is slowing and 2017 may be the first year since 2009 to see a market contraction. With interest rates on the rise and demand peaking, automotive lending will continue to become more competitive. Lenders can be successful in this environment, but must implement data-driven targeting strategies. Credit Unions Triumph Credit unions experienced the largest year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2016, increasing 15% over the previous period. As lending faces increasing headwinds amid rising rates, credit unions can continue to play a greater role by offering members more competitive rates. For many consumers, a casual weekend trip to the auto mall turns into a big new purchase. Unfortunately, many get caught up in researching the vehicle and don’t think to shop for financing options until they’re in the F&I office. With approximately 25% share of total auto loan balances, credit unions have significant potential to recapture loans of existing members. Successful targeting starts with a review of your portfolio for opportunities with current members who have off-book loans that could be refinanced at a lower rate. After developing a strategy, many credit unions find success targeting these members with refinance offers. Helping members reduce monthly payments and interest expense provides an unexpected service that can deepen loyalty and engagement. But what criteria should you use to identify prospects? Target Receptive Consumers As originations continue to slow, marketing response rates will as well, leading to reduced marketing ROI. Maintaining performance is possible, but requires a proactive approach. Propensity models can help identify consumers who are more likely to respond, while estimated interest rates can provide insight on who is likely to benefit from refinance offers. Propensity models identify who is most likely to open a new trade. By focusing on these populations, you can cut a mail list in half or more while still focusing on the most viable prospects. It may be okay in a booming economy to send as many offers as possible, but as things slow down, getting more targeted can maintain campaign performance while saving resources for other projects. When it comes to recapture, consumers refinance to reduce their payment, interest rate, or both. Payments can often be reduced simply by ‘resetting’ the clock on a loan, or taking the remaining balance and resetting the term. Many consumers, however, will be aware of their current interest rate and only consider offers that reduce the rate as well. Estimated interest rates can provide valuable insight into a consumer’s current terms. By targeting those with high rates, you are more likely to make an offer that will be accepted. Successful targeting means getting the right message to the right consumers. Propensity models help identify “who” to target while estimated interest rates determine “what” to offer. Combining these two strategies will maximize results in even the most challenging markets. Lend Deeper with Trended Data Much of the growth in the auto market has been driven by relatively low-risk consumers, with more than 60% of outstanding balances rated prime and above. This means hypercompetition and great rates for the best consumers, while those in lower risk tiers are underserved. Many lenders are reluctant to compete for these consumers and avoid taking on additional risk for the portfolio. But trended data holds the key to finding consumers who are currently in a lower risk tier but carry significantly less risk than their current score suggests. In fact, historical data can provide much deeper insight on a consumer’s past use of credit. As an example, consider two consumers with the same risk score at a point in time. While they may be judged as carrying similar risk, trended data shows one has taken out two new trades in the past 6 months and has increasing utilization, while the other is consolidating and paying down balances. They may have the same risk score today, but what will the impact be on your future profitability? Most risk scores take a snapshot approach to gauging risk. While effective in general, it misses out on the nuance of consumers who are trending up or down based on recent behavior. Trended data attributes tell a deeper story and allow lenders to find underserved consumers who carry less risk than their current score suggests. Making timely offers to underserved consumers is a great way to grow your portfolio while managing risk. Uncertain Future The automotive industry has been a bright spot for the US economy for several years. It’s difficult to say what will happen in 2017, but there will likely be a continued slowing in originations. When markets get more competitive, data-driven targeting becomes even more important. Propensity models, estimated interest rates, and trended data should be part of every prescreen campaign. Those that integrate them now will likely shrug off any downturn and continue growing their portfolio by providing valuable and timely offers to their members.

Credit attributes help you make informed decisions by providing a more granular picture of the consumer.

So many insights and learnings to report after the first full day of 2017 Vision sessions. From the musings shared by tech engineer and pioneer Steve Wozniak, to a panel of technology thought leaders, to countless breakout sessions on a wide array of business topics … here’s a look at our top 10 from the day. A mortgage process for the digital age. At last. In his opening remarks, Experian President of Credit Services Alex Lintner asked the audience to imagine a world when applying for a mortgage simply required a few clicks or swipes. Instead of being sent home to collect a hundred pieces of paper to verify employment, income and assets, a consumer could click on a link and provide a few credentials to verify everything digitally. Finally, lenders can make this a reality, and soon it will be the only way consumers expect to go through the mortgage process. The global and U.S. economies are stable. In fact, they are strong. As Experian Vice President of Analytics Michele Raneri notes, “the fundamentals and technicals look really solid across the countries.” While many were worried a year ago that Brexit would turn the economy upside down, it appears everything is good. Consumer confidence is high. The Dow Jones Index is high. The U.S. unemployment rate is at 4.7%. Home prices are up year-over-year. While there has been a great deal of change in the world – politically and beyond – the economy is holding strong. The rise of the micropreneur. This term is not officially in the dictionary … but it will be. What is it? A micropreneur is a business with 0 to 4 employees bringing in no more than $200k in annual revenue. But the real story is that numbers show microbusiness are improving on many fronts when it comes to contribution to the economy and overall performance compared to other small businesses. Keep an eye on these budding business people. Fraud is running fierce. Synthetic identity losses are estimated in the hundreds of millions annually, with 50% year-over year growth. Criminals are now trying to use credit cleaners to get tradelines removed from used Synthetic IDs. Oh, and it is essential for businesses to ready themselves for “Dark Web” threats. Experts advise to harden your defenses (and play offense) to keep pace with the criminal underground. As soon as you think you’ve protected everything, the criminals will find a gap. The cloud is cool and so are APIs. A panel of thought leaders took to the main stage to discuss the latest trends in tech. Experian Global CIO Barry Libenson said, “The cloud has changed the way we deliver services to our customers and clients, making it seamless and elastic.” Combine that with API, and the goal is to ultimately make all Experian data available to its customers. Experian President of Decision Analytics Steve Platt added, “We are enabling you to tap into what you need, when you need it.” No need to “rip and replace” all your tech. Expect more regulation – and less. A panel of regulatory experts addressed the fast-changing regulatory environment. With the new Trump administration settling in, and calls for change to Dodd-Frank and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), it’s too soon to tell what will unfold in 2017. CFPB Director Richard Cordray may be making a run for governor of Ohio, so he could be transitioning out sooner than the scheduled close of his July 2018 term. The auto market continues to cruise. Experian’s auto expert, Malinda Zabritski, revealed the latest and greatest stats pertaining to the auto market. A few numbers to blow your mind … U.S. passenger cars and light trucks surpassed 17 million units for the second consecutive year Most new vehicle buyers in the U.S. are 45 years of age or older Crossover and sport utility vehicles remain popular, accounting for 40% of the market in 2016 – this is also driving up finance payments since these vehicles are more expensive. There are signs the auto market is beginning to soften, but interest rates are still low, and leasing is hot. Defining alternative data. As more in the industry discuss the need for alternative data to decision, it often gets labeled as something radical. But in reality, alternative data should be simple. Experian Sr. Director of Government Affairs Liz Oesterle defined it as “getting more financial data in the system that is predicted, validated and can be disputed.” #DeathtoPasswords – could it be a reality? It’s no secret we live in a digital world where we are increasingly relying on apps and websites to manage our lives, but let’s throw out some numbers to quantify the shift. In 2013, the average U.S. consumer had 26 online accounts. By 2015, that number increased to 118 online accounts. By 2020, the average person will have 207 online accounts. When you think about this number, and the passwords associated with these accounts, it is clear a change needs to be made to managing our lives online. Experian Vice President David Britton addressed his session, introducing the concept of creating an “ultimate consumer identity profile,” where multi-source data will be brought together to identify someone. It’s coming, and all of us managing dozens of passwords can’t wait. “The Woz.” I guess you needed to be there, but let’s just say he was honest, opinionated and notes that while he loves tech, he loves it even more when it enables us to live in the “human world.” Too much wonderful content to share, but more to come tomorrow …

Average mortgage rate was >4% at the end of Q1 with mortgage originations nearly $450 billion—a 5% increase over the $427 billion a year earlier.

In a May 4 speech before the ACA International Conference in Washington, FCC Commissioner Michael O’Rielly criticized the FCC’s past decisions on Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) and outlined his vision on the direction that the new Commission should head to provide more certainty to businesses. Commissioner O’Rielly noted that prior decisions by the FCC and courts have “expanded the boundaries of TCPA far beyond what I believe Congress intended.” He said that the new leadership at the Commission and a new Bureau head overseeing TCPA, provides the FCC with the opportunity to “undo the misguided and harmful TCPA decisions of the past that exposed legitimate companies to massive legal liability without actually protecting consumers.” O’Rielly laid out three principles that he thought would help to frame discussions and guide the development of replacement rules. First, he said that legitimate businesses need to be able to contact consumers to communicate information that they want, need or expect to receive. This includes relief for informational calls, as well as valid telemarketing calls or texts. Second, Commissioner O’Rielly said that FCC should change the definition of an autodialer so that valid callers can operate in an efficient manner. He went on to say that if FCC develops new rules to clarify revocation of consent, it should do so in a clear and convenient way for consumers, but also does not upend standard best practices of legitimate companies. Third, O’Rielly said that the FCC should focus on actual harms and bad actors, not legitimate companies. While Commissioner O’Rielly’ s comments signal his approach to TCPA reform, it is important to note that FCC action on the issue us unlikely to happen overnight. A rule must be considered by the Commission, which will have to allow for public notice and comment. Experian will continue to monitor regulatory and legislative developments on TCPA.

May is Military Appreciation Month, and also a fitting time to check in on the latest news attached to the Military Lending Act, with card compliance coming in October 2017.

Policymakers in Washington continue to grapple with how to spur responsible innovation and how fintech fits into the existing regulatory paradigm.

Understanding how a consumer uses credit or pays back debt over several months (trended data) can help you derive valuable insights on consumers

It was two years ago when I found myself sitting cross-legged on my home office floor, papers strewn about as I organized piles of tax returns, W-2s, pay stubs, 401k and bank statements, and previous escrow docs. My task? Sort through it all, scan them (if I couldn’t access them digitally) and then upload/email them to a site for my mortgage broker to print and package for my refinance application. For a girl accustomed to Amazon Prime, mobile banking, social media and smart TVs, this monumental financial task seemed utterly archaic – even in 2015. Fast forward two years later, and the mortgage space has failed to make much progress. Clearly, the financial meltdown and Great Recession placed more regulation and compliance stresses on financial institutions. Verification steps and requirements needed to be strengthened – and that made sense. We want to make sure people are capable of paying for those sizable mortgage payments, right? Even now, I get flashbacks to scenes from The Big Short. Still, the hunt for paper, the endless scanning, the emailing, the document uploads required? In an era where the smartphone rules, how has the mortgage industry failed to evolve in the digital age? It’s no secret the financial services industry is typically slow to adopt the latest in technology advancements, but consumers are pushing. A 2016 Accenture survey reveals online banking is now the top choice of consumers at 28%, followed by branch banking at 24%. In the mobile banking space, there has additionally been a significant increase. From 2011 to 2015, mobile banking doubled (22% to 43%) and rose from 43% to 53% for smartphone users in particular. But what about mortgage? Finally, it seems, shifts are underway. In a recent Oliver Wyman paper titled Digital Mortgage Nirvana, the authors state, “Gone are the days when the only way to properly underwrite a mortgage was with long application forms and tall stacks of documents.” Once easy to carry in one hand, the average mortgage application file has ballooned to 500 pages, according to David Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. And while the application may not shrink, portions of the application process can be digitized and automated. Today, lenders have the ability to partner with data aggregators to verify a consumer’s assets and income with online solutions. In fact, lenders can take this a step further, feeding the data into their automated decision engines, providing the consumer with an approval, decline or conditions that must be met in order to clear the loan process. Nonbanks have been picking off business and disrupting the onerous mortgage process for the past several years. Think Quicken, LoanDepot and GuaranteedRate. But all mortgage lenders have the ability to speed up consumer verification and decisioning by partnering with data aggregators and leveraging solutions like Experian’s digital verification suite. Are we talking a one-click shopping experience? No. This is a mortgage after all, not your average online purchase. But banks now have the opportunity to dramatically enhance the mortgage experience for consumers. The question is whether they are ready to finally embrace a digital journey in the mortgage space in 2017, or will they let another year pass them by?