Credit & Risk
With the most recent guidance newly issued by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) there is renewed conversation about knowledge based authentication. I think this is a good thing. It brings back into the forefront some of the things we have discussed for a while, like the difference between secret questions and dynamic knowledge based authentication, or the importance of risk based authentication. What does the new FFIEC guidance say about KBA? Acknowledging that many institutions use challenge questions, the FFIEC guidance highlights that the implementation of challenge questions can greatly impact efficacy of its usefulness. Chances are you already know this. Of greater importance, though, is the fact that the FFIEC guidelines caution on the use of less sophisticated systems and information that can be easily guessed or obtained from an Internet search, given the amount of information available. As mentioned above, the FFIEC guidelines call for questions that “do not rely on information that is often publicly available,” recommending instead a broad range of data assets on which to base questions. This is an area knowledge based authentication users should review carefully. At this point in time it is perfectly appropriate to ask, “Does my KBA provider rely on data that is publicly sourced” If you aren’t sure, ask for and review data sources. At a minimum, you want to look for the following in your KBA provider: · Questions! Diverse questions from broad data categories, including credit and noncredit assets · Consumer question performance as one of the elements within an overall risk-based decisioning policy · Robust performance monitoring. Monitor against established key performance indicators and do it often · Create a process to rotate questions and adjust access parameters and velocity limits. Keep fraudsters guessing! · Use the resources that are available to you. Experian has compiled information that you might find helpful: www.experian.com/ffiec Finally, I think the release of the new FFIEC guidelines may have made some people wonder if this is the end of KBA. I think the answer is a resounding “No.” Not only do the FFIEC guidelines support the continued use of knowledge based authentication, recent research suggests that KBA is the authentication tool identified as most effective by consumers. Where I would draw caution is when research doesn’t distinguish between “secret questions” and dynamic knowledge based authentication, which we all know is very different.
By: Mike Horrocks Have you ever been struck by a turtle or even better burnt by water skies that were on fire? If you are like me, these are not accidents that I think will ever happen to me and I'm not concerned that my family doctor didn't do a rotation in medical school to specialize in treating them. On October 1, 2013, however, doctors and hospitals across the U.S. will have ability to identify, log, bill, and track those accidents and thousands of other very specific medical events. In fact the list will jump from a current 18,000 medical codes to 140,000 medical codes. Some people hail this as a great step toward the management of all types of medical conditions, whereas others view it as a introduction of noise in a medical system already over burdened. What does this have to do with credit risk management you ask? When I look at the amount of financial and non-financial data that the credit industry has available to understand the risk of our consumer or business clients, I wonder where we are in the range of “take two aspirins and call me in the morning” to “[the accident] occurred inside a chicken coop” (code: Y9272). Are we only identifying a risky consumer after they have defaulted on a loan? Or are we trying to find a pattern in the consumer's purchases at a coffee house that would correlate with some other data point to indicate risk when the moon is full? The answer is somewhere in between and it will be different for each institution. Let’s start with what is known to be predictable when it comes to monitoring our portfolios - data and analytics, coupled with portfolio risk monitoring to minimize risk exposure - and then expand that over time. Click here for a recent case study that demonstrates this quite successfully with one of our clients. Next steps could include adding in analytics and/or triggers to identify certain risks more specifically. When it comes to risk, incorporating attributes or a solid set of triggers, for example, that will identify risk early on and can drill down to some of the specific events, combined with technology that streamlines portfolio management processes - whether you have an existing system in place or in search of a migration - will give you better insight to the risk profile of your consumers. Think about where your organization lies on the spectrum. If you are already monitoring your portfolio with some of these solutions, consider what the next logical step to improve the process is - is it more data, or advanced analytics using that data, a combination of both, or perhaps it's a better system in place to monitoring the risk more closely. Wherever you are, don’t let your institution have the financial equivalent need for these new medical codes W2202XA, W2202XD, and W2202XS (injuries resulting from walking into a lamppost once, twice, and sequentially).
By: Kari Michel The way medical debts are treated in scores may change with the introduction of June 2011, Medical Debt Responsibility Act. The Medical Debt Responsibility Act would require the three national credit bureaus to expunge medical collection records of $2,500 or less from files within 45 days of their being paid or settled. The bill is co-sponsored by Representative Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), Don Manzullo (R-Ill.) and Ralph M. Hall (R-Texas). As a general rule, expunging predictive information is not in the best interest of consumers or credit granters -- both of which benefit when credit reports and scores are as accurate and predictive as possible. If any type of debt information proven to be predictive is expunged, consumers risk exposure to improper credit products as they may appear to be more financially equipped to handle new debt than they truly are. Medical debts are never taken into consideration by VantageScore® Solutions LLC if the debt reporting is known to be from a medical facility. When a medical debt is outsourced to a third-party collection agency, it is treated the same as other debts that are in collection. Collection accounts of lower than $250, or ones that have been settled, have less impact on a consumer’s VantageScore® credit score. With or without the medical debt in collection information, the VantageScore® credit score model remains highly predictive.
With the raising of the U.S. debt ceiling and its recent ramifications consuming the headlines over the past month, I began to wonder what would happen if the general credit consumer had made a similar argument to their credit lender. Something along the lines of, “Can you please increase my credit line (although I am maxed out)? I promise to reduce my spending in the future!” While novel, probably not possible. In fact, just the opposite typically occurs when an individual begins to borrow up to their personal “debt ceiling.” When the amount of credit an individual utilizes to what is available to them increases above a certain percentage, it can adversely affect their credit score, in turn affecting their ability to secure additional credit. This percentage, known as the utility rate is one of several factors that are considered as part of an individual’s credit score calculation. For example, the utilization rate makes up approximately 23% of an individual’s calculated VantageScore® credit score. The good news is that consumers as a whole have been reducing their utilization rate on revolving credit products such as credit cards and home equity lines (HELOCs) to the lowest levels in over two years. Bankcard and HELOC utilization is down to 20.3% and 49.8%, respectively according to the Q2 2011 Experian – Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports. In addition to lowering their utilization rate, consumers are also doing a better job of managing their current debt, resulting in multi-year lows for delinquency rates as mentioned in my previous blog post. By lowering their utilization and delinquency rates, consumers are viewed as less of a credit risk and become more attractive to lenders for offering new products and increasing credit limits. Perhaps the government could learn a lesson or two from today’s credit consumer.
As I’m sure you are aware, the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) recently released its, "Supplement to Authentication in an Internet Banking Environment" guiding financial institutions to mitigate risk using a variety of processes and technologies as part of a multi-layered approach. In light of this updated mandate, businesses need to move beyond simple challenge and response questions to more complex out-of-wallet authentication. Additionally, those incorporating device identification should look to more sophisticated technologies well beyond traditional IP address verification alone. Recently, I contribute to an article on how these new guidelines might affect your institution. Check it out here, in full: http://ffiec.bankinfosecurity.com/articles.php?art_id=3932 For more on what the FFIEC guidelines mean to you, check out these resources - which also gives you access to a recent Webinar.
The following article was originally posted on August 15, 2011 by Mike Myers on the Experian Business Credit Blog. Last time we talked about how credit policies are like a plant grown from a seed. They need regular review and attention just like the plants in your garden to really bloom. A credit policy is simply a consistent guideline to follow when decisioning accounts, reviewing accounts, collecting and setting terms. Opening accounts is just the first step. Here are a couple of key items to consider in reviewing accounts: How many of your approved accounts are paying you late? What is their average days beyond terms? How much credit have they been extended? What attributes of these late paying accounts can predict future payment behavior? I recently worked with a client to create an automated credit policy that consistently reviews accounts based on predictive credit attributes, public records and exception rules using the batch account review decisioning tools within BusinessIQ. The credit team now feels like they are proactively managing their accounts instead of just reacting to them. A solid credit policy not only focuses on opening accounts, but also on regular account review which can help you reduce your overall risk.
By: Staci Baker In my last post about the Dodd-Frank Act, I described the new regulatory bodies created by the Act. In this post, I will concentrate on how the Act will affect community banks. The Dodd-Frank Act is over 3,000 pages of proposed and final rules and regulations set forth by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). For any bank, managing such a massive amount of regulations is a challenge, but for a median-size bank with fewer employees, it can be overwhelming. The Act has far reaching unintended consequences for community banks. According to the American Bankers Association, there are five provisions that are particularly troubling for community banks: 1. Risk retention 2. Higher Capital Requirements and Narrower Qualifications for Capital 3. SEC’s Municipal Advisors Rule 4. Derivatives Rules 5. Doubling Size of the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) In order meet new regulatory requirements, community banks will need to hire additional compliance staff to review the new rules and regulations, as well as to ensure they are implemented on schedule. This means the additional cost of outside lawyers, which will affect resources available to the bank for staff, and for its customers and the community. Community banks will also feel the burden of loosing interchange fee income. Small banks are exempt from the new rules; however, the market will follow the lowest priced product. Which will mean another loss of revenue for the banks. As you can see, community banks will greatly be affected by the Dodd-Frank Act. The increased regulations will mean a loss of revenues, increased oversight, additional out-side staffing (less resources) and reporting requirements. If you are a community bank, how do you plan on overcoming some of these obstacles?
By: John Straka Unsurprisingly, Washington deficit hawks have been eyeing the “sacred cows” of tax preferences for homeownership for some time now. Policymakers might even unwind or eliminate the mortgage interest deductions and capital-gains exemptions on home appreciation that have been in place in the U.S for many decades. There is an economic case to be made for doing this—more efficient resource allocation of capital, other countries have high ownership rates without such tax preferences, etc. But if you call or email or tweet Congress, and you choose this subject, my advice is to tell them that they should wait unti it’s 2005. In other words, now—or even the next few years most likely—is definitely not a good time at all to eliminate these housing tax preferences. We need to wait until it’s something like “2005”—when housing markets are much stronger again (hopefully) and state and local government finances are far from their relatively dire straits at present. If we don’t do this right, and insist on making big changes here now, then housing will take an immediate hit, and so will employment from both the housing sector and state and local governments (with further state and local service cutbacks also, due to budget shortfalls). The reason for this, of course, is that most homeowners today have not really benefited much, and won’t, from those well-established tax preferences. Why not? Because these preferences have been in place for so long now that the economic value (expected present discounted value) of these tax savings was long ago baked into the level of home prices that most homeowners paid when they bought their homes. Take the preferences away now, and the value of homes will immediately drop, and therefore so will property tax revenues collected by local governments across the U.S. This strategy will thus further bash the state- and-local sector in order to plump up some (we hope) our federal tax revenues by the value of the tax preferences. Housing will become a further drag on economic growth, and so will the resulting employment losses from both construction and local government services. As a result, it’s possible that on net the federal government may actually lose revenue from making this kind of change at precisely the wrong time. It may very well never be quite like “2005” again. But waiting for greater housing and local government strength to change long-standing housing tax preferences should make the macroeconomic impact smaller, less visible, and more easily absorbed.
A surprising occurrence is happening in the consumer credit markets. Bank card issuers are back in acquisition mode, enticing consumers with cash back, airline points and other incentives to get a share of their wallet. And while new account originations are nowhere near the levels seen in 2007, recent growth in new bank card accounts has been significant; 17.6% in Q1 2011 when compared to Q1 2010. So what is accounting for this resurgence in the credit card space while the economy is still trying to find its footing and credit is supposedly still difficult to come by for the average consumer? Whether good or bad, the economic crisis over the past few years appears to have improved consumers debt management behavior and card issuers have taken notice. Delinquency rates on bank cards are lower than at any time over the past five years and when compared to the start of 2009 when bank card delinquency was peaking; current performance has improved by over 40%. These figures have given bank card issuers the confidence to ease their underwriting standards and re-establish their acquisition strategies. What’s interesting however is the consumer segments that are driving this new growth. When analyzed by VantageScore, new credit card accounts are growing the fastest in the VantageScore D and F tiers with 46% and 53% increases year over year respectively. For comparison, VantageScore A and B tiers saw 5% and 1% increases during the same time period respectively. And although VantageScore D and F represent less than 10% of new bank card origination volume ($ limits), it is still surprising to see such a disparity in growth rates between the risk categories. While this is a clear indication that card issuers are making credit more readily available for all consumer segments, it will be interesting to see if the debt management lessons learned over the past few years will stick and delinquency rates will continue to remain low. If these growth rates are any indication, the card issuers are counting on it.
By: Staci Baker The Durbin Amendment, according to Wikipedia, gave the Federal Reserve the power to regulate debit card interchange fees. The amendment, which will have a profound impact on banks, merchants and anyone who holds a debit card will take effect on October 1, 2011 rather than the originally announced July 21, 2011, which will allow banks additional time to implement the new regulations. The Durbin Amendment states that card networks, such as Visa and Mastercard, will include an interchange fee of 21 cents per transaction, and must allow debit cards to be processed on at least two independent networks. This will cost banks roughly $9.4 billion annually according to CardHub.com. As stipulated in the Amendment, institutions with less than $10 billion in assets are exempt from the cap. In preparation for the Durbin Amendment, several banks have begun to impose new fees on checking accounts, end reward programs, raise minimum balance requirements and have threatened to cap transaction amounts for debit card transactions at $50 to $100 in order to recoup some of the earnings they are expected to lose. These new regulations will be a blow to already hurting consumers as their out of wallet expenses keep increasing. As you can see, The Durbin Amendment, which is meant to help consumers, will instead have the cost from the loss of interchange fees passed along in other forms. And, the loss of revenue will greatly impact the bottom line of banking institutions. Who will be the bigger winner with this new amendment - the consumer, merchants or the banks? Will banks be able to lower the cost of credit to an amount that will entice consumers away from their debit cards and to use their credit cards again? I think it is still far too soon to tell. But, I think over the next few months, we will see consumers use payment methods in a new way as both consumers and banks come to a middle ground that will minimize risk levels for all parties. Consumers will still need to shop and bankers will still need their tools utilized. What are you doing to prepare for The Durbin Amendment?
By: Kennis Wong On the surface, it’s not difficult to define existing account fraud. Obviously, it is fraud perpetrated against an existing account. But the way I see it, existing account fraud can be broken down into four types. The first type is account takeover fraud, which is what most organizations think as the de facto existing account fraud. This is when a real consumer using his or her own identity to open a legitimate account, but the account later on get taken over by an identity fraudster. The idea is that when the account was first established, it was created by the rightful person. But somewhere along the way, the account and identity information were compromised. The fraudster uses the compromised information to engineer their way into the account. The second type is impersonation. Impersonation is somewhat similar to account takeover in the sense that it is also misusing the victim’s account. But the difference is that impersonation is more of a one or few times misuses of the account. Examples are a fraudulent use of a credit card or wire transfer. These are the obvious categories. But I think we should also think about these other categories. My definition of existing account fraud also includes this third type – identity fraud that was undetected during application. In other words, an account is established based on stolen identity. Many organizations call this “new account fraud”, which I don’t have a problem with. But I think it’s really also existing account fraud, because – is this existing account? The answer is yes. Is this fraud? Absolutely. It’s not that difficult, is it? Similarly, I am including first-party fraud in existing account fraud as well. A consumer can use his or her own identity to open an account, with an intention to default after the account is established. Example is bust out fraud. You see that this is an expanded definition of existing account fraud, because my focus is on detection. No matter at what point and how identity fraud comes in, it becomes an account in your organization, and that is where we need to discover the fraud. But at the end of the day, it’s not too important how to categorize or name the fraud - whether it's application fraud, existing account fraud, first party fraud or third party fraud, as long as organizations understand them enough and have a good way to detect them. Read more blog posts on existing account fraud.
For communications companies, acquiring new accounts is an ongoing challenge. However, it is critical to remember that managing new and existing accounts – and their respective risks – is of tremendous importance. A holistic view of the entire customer lifecycle is something every communications organization can benefit from. The following article was originally posted by Mike Myers on the Experian Business Credit blog. Most of us are pretty familiar with credit reports and scores, but how many of you are aware of the additional tools available to help you manage the entire credit risk lifecycle? I talk to credit managers everyday and as we’re all trying to do more with less, it’s easy to forget that opening accounts is just the first step. Managing risk on these accounts is as critical, if not more so, than opening them. While others may choose to “ship and chase”, you don’t need to. Proactive alert/monitoring services, regular portfolio scoring and segmentation are key components that a successful credit department needs to employ in the constant battle against “bad” accounts. Use these tools to proactively adjust credit terms and limits, both positively and negatively. Inevitably some accounts will go bad, but using collection research tools for skip tracing and targeting services for debt collection will put you first in line for collections. A journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step; we have tools that can help you with that journey and all can be accessed online.
By: Tracy Bremmer Score migration has always been a topic of interest among financial institutions. I can remember doing score migration analyses as a consultant at Experian for some of the top financial institutions as far back as 2004, prior to the economic meltdown. Lenders were interested in knowing if I could approve a certain number of people above a particular cut-off, and how many of them will be below that cutoff within five or more years. Or conversely, of all the people I’ve rejected because they were below my cut-off, how many of them would have qualified a year later or maybe even qualified the following month. We’ve done some research recently to gain a better understanding of the impact of score migration, given the economic downturn. What we found was that in aggregate, there is not a ton of change going on. Because as consumers move up or down in their score, the overall average shift tends to be minimal. However, when we’ve tracked this on a quarterly basis into score bands or even at a consumer level, the shift is more meaningful. The general trend is that the VantageScore® credit score “A” band, or best scorers, has been shrinking over time, while the VantageScore® credit score “D” & “F” bands, lower scorers, has grown over time. For instance, in 2010 Q4, the amount of consumers in VantageScore® credit score A was the lowest it has been in the past three years. Conversely, the number of consumers falling into the VantageScore® credit score “D” & “F” bands are the highest they have been during that same time period. This constant shift in credit scores, driven by changes in a consumer’s credit file, can impact risk levels beyond the initial point of applicant approval. For this reason, we recommend updating and refreshing scores on a very regular basis, along with regular scorecard monitoring, to ensure that risk propensity and the offering continue to be appropriately aligned with one another.
By: Kari Michel On March 18th 2011 the Federal Reserve Board approved a rule amending Regulation Z (Truth in Lending) to clarify portions of the final rules implementing the Credit CARD Act of 2009. Specific to ability to pay requirements, the new rule states that credit card applications generally cannot request a consumer's "household income" because that term is too vague to allow issuers to properly evaluate the consumer's ability to pay. Instead, issuers must consider the consumer's individual income or salary. The new ruling will be effective October 2011. Given the new direction outlined in the latest rules, we've been hard at work on developing 2 income models to support these regulatory obligations and enhance the underwriting and risk assessment process - Income InsightSM and Income Insight W2SM. Both income models estimate an individual’s income based on an individual credit report and can be used in acquisition strategies, account management review and collection processes. Why two models? Income InsightSM estimates the consumer’s total income, including wages, investments, rentals and other income. Income Insight W2SM estimates wages only. Check them out - and let us know what you think! We want to hear from you.
The next time a consumer asks about his or her credit score, consider it an opportunity. Recent changes to the Risk-Based Pricing (RBP) rule may provide new opportunities to strengthen relationships by educating consumers about what their credit scores mean, how they’re used, and how they can be improved. For many lenders and other businesses, this could be the first time they’ve had a chance to speak directly and openly with customers about their credit scores. The RBP rule is intended to improve financial literacy As we’ve discussed, the Risk-Based Pricing Rule was instituted in response to policymaker concerns that consumers were not being sufficiently informed of the impact that credit reports can have on their annual percentage rate (APR). Now, when a lender makes a credit decision based on a consumer credit report and does not offer the best possible rate, or denies credit, the RBP Rule requires lenders to notify the customer about the decision – through either an explanation of the rate offered or disclosing a credit score. New requirements take effect on July 21 RBP compliance is changing following recent passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Companies will now be required to provide all customers with a credit score within a Risk Based Pricing Notice, along with educational material. The new requirement is effective July 21, 2011. This is also the date when the new Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection (CFPB) is set to be fully operational. How to prepare for consumer questions about credit scores Experian offers a number of resources to help lenders answer consumer questions. Online resources, including the Ask Experian column and our extensive Credit Education section, provide fundamental information to help consumers better understand credit scores and credit reports. The Experian Credit Score Basics booklet, plus more than 20 other educational documents, are available electronically and formatted for easy printing and distribution. All documents, PowerPoint presentations, virtual seminars and education videos are available on a free mini-disk. Customized training and education is available The Experian Public Education team can also provide customized, live Internet-based training and education for our clients’ employees to help them effectively answer customer questions about credit reports and credit scores. For a free mini-disk or more information about training events, please contact Rod Griffin, Experian’s Director of Public Education, at 1 (972) 390-3528, or email clientcorner@experian.com. Take a moment to check out our Risk-Based Pricing microsite, too. Note: While Experian is happy to provide our observations related to the new Risk-Based Pricing Rule, please work with your own legal counsel to ensure that you comply with your obligations under the rule.