Tag: Risk Models

In today’s complex business landscape, data-based decision-making has become the norm, with advanced technologies and analytics tools facilitating faster and more accurate modeling and predictions. However, with the increased reliance on models, the risk of errors has also increased, making it crucial for organizations to have a comprehensive model risk management framework. In this blog post, we will dive deeper into model risk management, its importance for organizations, and the key elements of a model risk management framework. What is model risk? First, let's define what we mean by model risk. Many institutions use models to forecast and predict the future performance of investments, portfolios or consumers' creditworthiness. Model risk can happen when the results produced by these models are inaccurate or not fit for the intended purpose. This risk arises due to several factors, like data limitations, model assumptions and inherent complexities in the underlying modeled processes. For example, in the credit industry, an inaccurately calibrated credit risk model may incorrectly assess a borrower's default risk, resulting in erroneous credit decisions and impacting overall portfolio performance. What is a risk management model and why is it important? A risk management model, or model risk management, refers to a systematic approach to manage the potential risks associated with the use of models and, more specifically, quantitative models built on data. Since models are based on a wide range of assumptions and predictions, it's essential to recognize the possibility of errors and acknowledge its impact on business decisions. The goal of model risk management is to provide a well-defined and structured approach to identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks associated with model use. The importance of model risk management for institutions that leverage quantitative risk models in their decisioning strategies cannot be overstated. Without proper risk management models, businesses are vulnerable to significant consequences, such as financial losses, regulatory enforcement actions and reputational damage. Model risk management: essential elements The foundation of model risk management includes standards and processes for model development, validation, implementation and ongoing monitoring. This includes: Policies and procedures that provide a clear framework for model use and the associated risks. Model inventory and management that captures all models used in an organization. Model development and implementation that documents the policies for developing and implementing models, defining critical steps and role descriptions. Validation and ongoing monitoring to ensure the models meet their stated objectives and to detect drift. In addition to these essential elements, a model risk management framework must integrate an ongoing system of transparency and communication to ensure that each stakeholder in model risk governance is aware of the policies, processes and decisions that support model use. Active engagement with modelers, validators, business stakeholders, and audit functions, among other stakeholders, is essential and should be included in the process. How we can help Experian® provides solutions and risk mitigation tools to help organizations of all sizes establish a solid model risk management framework to meet regulatory and model risk governance requirements, improve overall model performance and identify and mitigate potential risk. We provide services for back testing, benchmarking, sensitivity analysis and stress testing. In addition, our experts can review your organization’s current model risk management practices, conduct a gap analysis and assist with audit preparations. Learn more *This article includes content created by an AI language model and is intended to provide general information.

What is CECL? CECL (Current Expected Credit Loss) is a new credit loss model, to be leveraged by financial institutions, that estimates the expected loss over the life of a loan by using historical information, current conditions and reasonable forecasts. According to AccountingToday, CECL is considered one of the most significant accounting changes in decades to affect entities that borrow and lend money. To comply with CECL by the assigned deadline, financial institutions will need to access much more data than they’re currently using to calculate their reserves under the incurred loss model, Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL). How does it impact your business? CECL introduces uncertainty into accounting and growth calculations, as it represents a significant change in the way credit losses are currently estimated. The new standard allows financial institutions to calculate allowances in a variety of ways, including discounted cash flow, loss rates, roll-rates and probability of default analyses. “Large banks with historically good loss performance are projecting increased reserve requirements in the billions of dollars,” says Experian Advisory Services Senior Business Consultant, Gavin Harding. Here are a few changes that you should expect: Larger allowances will be required for most products As allowances will increase, pricing of the products will change to reflect higher capital cost Losses modeling will change, impacting both data collection and modeling methodology There will be a lower return on equity, especially in products with a longer life expectancy How can you prepare? “CECL compliance is a journey, rather than a destination,” says Gavin. “The key is to develop a thoughtful, data-driven approach that is tested and refined over time.” Financial institutions who start preparing for CECL now will ultimately set their organizations up for success. Here are a few ways to begin to assess your readiness: Create a roadmap and initiative prioritization plan Calculate the impact of CECL on your bottom line Run altered scenarios based on new lending policy and credit decision rules Understand the impact CECL will have on your profitability Evaluate current portfolios based on CECL methodology Run different loss methods and compare results Additionally, there is required data to capture, including quarterly or monthly loan-level account performance metrics, multiple year data based on loan product type and historical data for the life of the loan. How much time do you have? Like most accounting standards, CECL has different effective dates based on the type of reporting entity. Public business entities that file financial statements with the Security and Exchange Commission will have to comply by 2020, non-public entity banks must comply by 2022 and non-SEC registered companies have until 2023 to adopt the new standard. How can we help: Complying with CECL may require you to gather, store and calculate more data than before. Experian can help you comply with CECL guidelines including data needs, consulting and loan loss calculation. Experian industry experts will help update your current strategies and establish an appropriate timeline to meet compliance dates. Leveraging our best-in-class industry data, we will help you gain CECL compliance quickly and effectively, understand the impacts to your business and use these findings to improve overall profitability. Learn more

When developing a risk model, validation is an essential step in evaluating and verifying a model’s predictive performance. There are two types of data samples that can be used to validate a model. In-time validation or holdout sample: Random partitioning of the development sample is used to separate the data into a sample set for development and another set aside for validation. Out-of-time validation sample: Data from an entirely different period or customer campaign is used to determine the model’s performance. We live in a complicated world. Models can help reduce that complexity. Understanding a model’s predictive ability prior to implementation is critical to reducing risk and growing your bottom line. Learn more

In my first blog post on the topic of customer segmentation, I shared with readers that segmentation is the process of dividing customers or prospects into groupings based on similar behaviors. The more similar or homogeneous the customer grouping, the less variation across the customer segments are included in each segment’s custom model development. A thoughtful segmentation analysis contains two phases: generation of potential segments, and the evaluation of those segments. Although several potential segments may be identified, not all segments will necessarily require a separate scorecard. Separate scorecards should be built only if there is real benefit to be gained through the use of multiple scorecards applied to partitioned portions of the population. The meaningful evaluation of the potential segments is therefore an essential step. There are many ways to evaluate the performance of a multiple-scorecard scheme compared with a single-scorecard scheme. Regardless of the method used, separate scorecards are only justified if a segment-based scorecard significantly outperforms a scorecard based on a broader population. To do this, Experian® builds a scorecard for each potential segment and evaluates the performance improvement compared with the broader population scorecard. This step is then repeated for each potential segmentation scheme. Once potential customer segments have been evaluated and the segmentation scheme finalized, the next step is to begin the model development. Learn more about how Experian Decision Analytics can help you with your segmentation or custom model development needs.

As credit behavior and economic conditions continue to evolve, using a model that is validated regularly can give lenders greater confidence in the model’s performance. VantageScore® Solutions, LLC validates all its models annually to promote transparency and support financial institutions with model governance. The results of the most recent validation demonstrate the consistent ability of VantageScore® to accurately score more than 30 million to 35 million consumers considered unscoreable by other models — including 9.5 million Hispanic and African-American consumers. The findings reinforce the importance of using advanced credit scoring models to make more accurate decisions while providing consumers with access to fair and equitable credit. >> VantageScore® Annual Validation Results 2016 VantageScore® is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC