Tag: balance transfers

Early reports suggest the 2017 holiday season was a good one for retailers. Consumers were in the mood to spend, and as such, Americans’ total credit card debt continued to climb. Americans planned to spend $862 on gifts for the season, a huge jump from the $752 they planned on spending in 2016. And the numbers were significantly higher than their estimate in any November since 2007 -- just before the 2007-2009 recession. 29% of Americans said they planned to spend more than $1,000. What does this mean for card portfolios? Well, business is booming, but they should also prepare for the time of year when consumers are most apt to seek out debt consolidation and transfer options. A recent NerdWallet analysis revealed the average household that’s carrying credit card debt has a balance of roughly $15,654. Dig deeper into retail card specifically and reports indicate Americans are carrying $1,841 in retail debt. “There is seasonality to consumer credit card behavior,” said Denise McKendall, a credit card and trended data specialist for Experian. “As we roll into the late winter months and early spring, consumers often seek ways to transfer card debt to lower interest rate options, consolidate debt from multiple cards and perhaps even pull out personal loans. This makes it an ideal time for card portfolio managers to leverage data to anticipate consumer behaviors and be able to offer the best rates and options to retain cardholders and grow.” Card portfolio managers should consider these questions: What is my portfolio risk? Did some of my consumers overextend themselves? Do I have collections triggers on my accounts to mitigate risk and manage delinquencies? Which consumers in my portfolio will be looking to consolidate debt? Should I reassess credit line limits? Which of my consumers show a high propensity to make a balance transfer? Do I have opportunities to grow my portfolio by offering attractive rates to new customers? Which customers will leave after low introductory rates expire? Can I use this time of year to become the first credit card consumers’ consistently use, rather than the second or third card they pull from wallet? At first glance, it might appear challenging to answer many of these questions, but with the right data and analytics, a card manager can easily establish a game plan to conquest new business, mitigate risk and retain existing, high-value consumers. The robust holiday season was a boom for the economy. Now card companies need to ready themselves for the aftermath.

Let’s play word association. When I say holiday season, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? Childhood memories. Connecting with family. A special dish mom used to make. Or perhaps it’s budgeting, debt and credit card spend. The holidays can be a stressful time of year for consumers, and also an important time for lenders to anticipate the aftermath of big credit card spend. According to a recent study by Experian and Edelman Intelligence: 48 percent of respondents felt thoughtful when thinking about the season 30 percent felt stressed 24 percent felt overwhelmed. Positive emotions are up across the board this year, which may be a good sign for retailers and bankcard lenders. And if emotion is an indicator of spending, 2016 is looking good. But while the holly-jolly sentiment is high, 56 percent of consumers say holiday shopping puts a strain on their finances. And, 43 percent of respondents said the stress of holiday shopping makes it difficult to enjoy the season. Regardless of stress, consumers are seeking ways to spend. Nearly half of respondents plan to use a major credit card to finance at least a portion of their holiday spending, second only to cash. With 44 percent of consumers saying they feel obligated to spend more than they can afford, it’s easy to see why credit cards are so important this time of year. Bankcard originations have fully rebounded from the recession, exceeding $104 billion in the third quarter of 2016, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. While originations have rebounded, delinquency rates have remained at historic lows. The availability of credit is giving consumers more purchasing power to fund their holiday spending. But what happens next? As it turns out, many consumers resolve to consolidate all that holiday debt in the new year. Experian research shows that balance transfer activity reaches annual highs during the first quarter as consumers seek to simplify repayment and take advantage of lower interest rates. Proactive lenders can take advantage of this activity by making timely offers to consumers in need. At the same time, reactive lenders may feel the pain as balances transfer out of their portfolio. By identifying consumers who are most likely to engage in a card-to-card balance transfers, lenders can anticipate these consumer bankcard trends. The insights can then be used to acquire new customers and balances through prescreen campaigns, while protecting existing balances before they transfer out of an existing lender portfolio. With Black Friday and Cyber Monday behind us, the card balances are likely already rising. Now is the time for lenders to prepare for the January and February consolidations. Those hefty credit card statements are coming soon.

Consumer card balance transfer activity is estimated to be $35 billion to $40 billion a year. How do lenders identify these consumers before they make transfers? By using trended data.  While extremely valuable, trended data is very complex and difficult to work with. For example, with 24 months of history on five fields, a single account includes 120 data points. That’s 720 data points for a consumer with six accounts on file and 72 million for a file with 100,000 consumers — not to mention the other data fields in the file. Trended data allows lenders to effectively predict where a consumer is going based on where they’ve been. And that can make all the difference when it comes to smart lending decisions. >>What is trended data?

Experian estimates card-to-card consumer balance transfer activity to be between $35 and $40 billion a year, representing a sizeable opportunity for proactive lenders seeking to grow their revolving product line. This opportunity, however, is a threat for reactive lenders that only measure portfolio attrition instead of working to retain current customers. While billions of dollars are transferred every year, this activity represents only a small percentage of the total card population. And given the expense of direct marketing, lenders seeking to capitalize on and protect their portfolio from balance transfer activity must leverage data insights to make more informed decisions. Predicting a consumer’s future propensity to engage in card-to-card balance transfers starts with trended data. A credit score is a snapshot in time, but doesn’t reveal deep insights about a consumer’s past balance transfer activity. Lenders that rely only on current utilization will group large populations of balance revolvers into one bucket – and many of these individuals will have no intention of transferring to another product in the near future. Still, balance transfer activity can be identified and predicted by utilizing trended data. By analyzing the spend and payment data over time to see when one (or multiple) trade’s payment approximately matches another trade’s spend, we have the logic that suggests there has been a card-to-card transfer. What most people don’t realize is that trended data is difficult to work with. With 24 months of history on five fields, a single trade includes 120 data points. That’s 720 data points for a consumer with six trades on file and 72,000,000 for a file with 100,000 records, not to mention the other data fields in the file. It’s easy to see why even the most sophisticated organizations become paralyzed working with trended data. While teams of analysts get buried in the data, projects drag, costs swell, and eventually the world changes as rates climb and fall. By the time the analysis is complete, it must be recalibrated. But there is a solution. Experian has developed powerful predictions tools that combine past balance transfer history, historical transfer amounts, current trades carried and utilized, payments, and spend. Combined, these data fields can help identify consumers who are most likely to transfer a balance in the future. With Experian’s Balance Transfer Index the highest scoring 10 percent of consumers capture nearly 70 percent of total balance transfer dollars. Imagine the impact on ROI of reducing 90 percent of the marketing cost of your next balance transfer campaign and still reaching 70 percent of the balance transfer activity. Balance transfer activity represents a meaningful dollar opportunity for growth, but is concentrated in a small percentage of the population making predictive analytics key to success. Trended data is essential for identifying those opportunities, but financial institutions must assess their capabilities when it comes to managing the massive data attached. The good news is that regardless of financial institution size, solutions now exist to capture the analytics and provide meaningful and actionable insights to lenders of all sizes.

This month, it’s all about parties and gift giving and holiday traditions. Fast forward a month, however, and consumers will be in a different place. Today, they are spending. In a few weeks, the focus will be on paying down bills, or perhaps seeking solutions to consolidate or transfer balances. The good news for the economy is consumers are expected to spend more this holiday season – $830 on average, a huge jump from last year’s $720. Total retail is expected to increase 5.6 percent, while ecommerce (thanks Amazon Prime) should rise 13.9 percent. Credit card originations are also trending up more than 1 percent year-over-year as of the end of the third quarter of 2015. So what does this mean for lenders? Card utilization is peaking, creating the perfect scenario for many consumers to seek balance transfers, consolidate debt and search for competitive rates, especially if they’ve been leveraging high-interest cards. A recent analysis by NerdWallet revealed consumers are more interested in shopping with store credit cards than with traditional cards this season, putting them at particular risk of sky-high rates. A deeper look at utilization revealed super-prime consumers use less than 6 percent of their available credit limits, while consumers in the deep-subprime tier use nearly every dollar allotted. “Consumers spend billions during the holidays on high-interest credit cards,” said Kyle Matthies, Experian product manager. “Many of them have excellent credit, but struggle juggling multiple payments, which can lead to delinquencies. Credit card consolidation can provide relief by lowering interest rates and simplifying repayment.” Card issuers that remain passive during this window may find their portfolios at-risk as customers take advantage of seasonal offers. Competitors who capitalize on this peak season of balance transfers will likely be mailing out offers to acquire and grow their card portfolio, as well as protect their current card base. “As banks and credit unions finish out the calendar year, they might seek one last marketing push, so a balance-transfer campaign might be the ideal play,” said Matthies. “Still, to avoid blowing the budget, it helps to leverage data to know exactly who to target – both within and outside the card portfolio.” Specific models and/or tools can identify who to try to retain, as well as provide insights on whom to conquest from the outside. An index can additionally offer guidance on when to lower APRs, sweeten rewards and increase credit limits for specific consumers. The post-holiday balance-transfer wave is coming. The question is which lenders will be best prepared to protect and grow their respective card portfolios.

Card-to-card balance transfers represent a substantial profit opportunity for lenders.