Loading...

Subprime Borrowers Locked Out of Loans? That Might Not Be the Case

Published: September 15, 2020 by Melinda Zabritski

Car salesperson talking on landline phone

We recently released our Q2 2020 State of the Automotive Finance Market report, and a few interesting trends emerged. And one that caught some attention was the continued decrease of subprime originations—those with a credit score between 300 and 600.

At first glance, you may think that this means that subprime consumers are being locked out of the automotive finance market and unable to acquire necessary funds to purchase a vehicle, but that’s not the whole story.

When looking at any data point in the automotive finance industry, it’s important that you have full context, and one of the easiest ways to do this is to look at a trendline. Then you can better understand whether the data point is part of a drastic shift or result of a slow progression. In the case of subprime originations, it’s the latter.

100% Bar chart showing the distribution of automotive financing by risk tier Q2 2015 through Q2 2020

As seen in the chart above, subprime originations have been steadily decreasing since Q2 2015. Why? There isn’t just one driving factor, but it’s likely a result of a number of things.

Increasing credit scores

According to the Q2 2020 State of the Automotive Finance Market report, the average credit score for new and used vehicle loans has steadily increased over the years, coming in at 721 and 657, respectively, in Q2 2020. This is also reflected in Experian’s State of Credit report, which found that the average VantageScore® credit score was 682 in 2019—the highest average score seen since 2011. This shows that consumers are prioritizing their financial health and ensuring they’re responsible with their borrowing choices. Ultimately, this means that there could be fewer car shoppers who fall into the subprime tiers.

Pandemic impacts on in-market shoppers

In Q2 2020, the overall volume of originations, including subprime, saw a decrease. It wasn’t unexpected—Q2 was the first quarter of the year to see the full impact of the pandemic on shopping habits. Between stay-at-home orders and fluctuating financial situations, the reality is that subprime consumers may not be in-market for a vehicle right now. The situation continues to be dynamic, which is something that lenders and dealers need to keep in mind and define strategies accordingly.

Loans are still available

Another important component to keep in mind is that lending is still available for subprime consumers. Many experts have tried to correlate our current economic situation to that of the Great Recession, but the causes are so drastically different that it’s hard to compare.

In 2007 and 2008, subprime lending comprised a larger portion of lenders’ portfolios, and we did see lending become harder to acquire for subprime borrowers, as lenders didn’t want to take on the additional risk. But that’s not what we’re seeing now. Loans are still available from a variety of lenders, which is further proof that subprime consumers aren’t being locked out of lending. In fact, subprime loans for used vehicles saw growth among independent dealers this quarter, from 36.79% in Q2 2019 to 38.84% in Q2 2020.

Data is critical to make informed decisions, especially in our current environment. As the pandemic is unlike anything we’ve seen before, dealers and lenders need to stay close to the trends to better understand the activity in the industry and continue to steer toward recovery.

To view the full Q2 2020 State of the Automotive Finance Market report, click here.

Related Posts

Amid interest rates leveling out and some lenders reassessing go-to-market strategies, the automotive finance landscape is experiencing notable shifts in market share. According to Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q1 2025, banks recouped some of their total finance market share for the first time in several years, reaching 26.6% during the quarter, up from 24.8% a year ago. On the other hand, captives’ total market share declined from 31.3% to 29.8% year-over-year and credit unions experienced a modest increase from 20.2% to 20.6%. Despite the overall market share shifts, captives continue to lead in new vehicle financing at 57.1% in Q1 2025, although down from 62.1% the year prior. Meanwhile, banks increased to 24.1% this quarter, from 20.4% in Q1 2024 and credit unions went from 9.6% to 10.9% during the same period. On the used side, banks and credit unions were grouped much closer together. Banks led the way with 28.4% of the used finance market in Q1 2025, up from 27.9% last year, while credit unions went from 27.7% to 28.2% year-over-year and captives declined from 8.5% to 7.4%. As market share movement continues to be a valuable indicator of shifting strategies and consumer behavior, it’s important for automotive professionals to keep a close eye on these shifts to uncover new opportunities while looking for ways to stay ahead of the rapidly evolving industry. Breaking down the latest finance trends Data in the first quarter of 2025 shows the automotive finance market continues to stabilize as automotive professionals gain clearer visibility into lender behavior and consumer demand. For example, the average loan amount for a new vehicle increased $1,110 year-over-year to $41,720 in Q1 2025. However, the average interest rate dropped from 6.9% to 6.7%, and the average monthly payment went from $737 last year to $745 this quarter. For used vehicles, the average loan amount saw a slight uptick of $90 year-over-year, reaching $26,144 this quarter. Meanwhile, the average interest rate declined from 12.4% last year to 11.9% this quarter and the average monthly payment trended lower at $521, from $524 in Q1 2024. Monitoring and leveraging market share shifts and financing trends can support strategic planning while empowering automotive professionals to anticipate consumer purchasing patterns and tailor conversations more effectively to meet buyers where they are during their car buying journey. To learn more about automotive finance trends, view the full State of the Automotive Finance Market: Q1 2025 presentation on demand.

Published: June 5, 2025 by Melinda Zabritski

Quick Summary: Leasing continues to increase in the electric vehicle (EV) market. EVs accounted for nearly 20% of all new vehicle leases in Q4 2024, up from only 2.11% of new vehicle leases four years ago in Q4 2020. With consumers looking for flexibility—both in monthly payment and model availability—we’re seeing leasing continue to surge in the electric vehicle (EV) market. According to Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q4 2024, EVs accounted for 19.5% of all new vehicle leases this quarter, up from 11.7% last year and a substantial increase from 2.1% in Q4 2020. Diving a bit deeper, data found EVs accounted for 9.3% of all new purchases in Q4 2024. Of those EVs, 50.1% were leased, while 38.9% were financed through loans. With lease payments for EVs ultimately being more affordable compared to loans and the excitement of driving the latest models packed with advanced technology, it’s no surprise we’re seeing leasing grow in popularity. Top leased EVs: How do lease and loan payments compare? As more consumers transition to EVs and manufacturers introduce new options to their lineup, certain models have become top choices for those opting to lease. Tesla accounted for the top two leased EVs in Q4 2024, with Tesla Model 3 coming in at 12.2% and Tesla Model Y at 9.1%. However, the Honda Prologue followed closely at 8.8% this quarter. Rounding out the top five were Hyundai IONIQ 5 (6.9%) and Chevrolet Equinox EV (5.9%). It’s notable that leasing has traditionally been a value-driven option for consumers, and the same holds true in the EV market. Leasing continues to offer lower monthly payments, making the finance option stand out for those looking to test an EV before purchasing or simply wanting the latest model on the lot. In Q4 2024, the average payment difference between a loan and a lease was $175. Though, the average monthly payment to lease a non-luxury EV was $504 this quarter, noting a $205 difference compared to the $709 loan payment. By comparison, the average monthly payment between a loan and leased luxury EV was $98—coming in at $842 for a lease and $940 for a loan. As more consumers choose to lease EVs, automotive professionals in both new and used markets have a chance to capitalize on this trend. By leveraging this data, those in the new retail market can effectively reach the right audience, while those in the used market can stay ahead of the curve and prepare for the influx of off-lease models in the coming years. To learn more about automotive finance trends, view the full State of the Automotive Finance Market: Q4 2024 presentation on demand.

Published: March 6, 2025 by Melinda Zabritski

The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.

Published: January 21, 2025 by Melinda Zabritski

Subscribe to our Auto blog

Enter your name and email for the latest updates.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.