June 2025 Housing Market Trends: Warning Signs and Growth Opportunities

As the U.S. housing market enters a new phase, the 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report from Experian provides a data-driven overview for lenders, servicers, and property managers. This article synthesizes findings related to mortgage originations, affordability pressures, home equity utilization, credit risk, and generational sentiment, with implications for lender strategy in 2026 (Experian, 2026).  Mortgage market in flux: Opportunity amid transition  The mortgage market presents mixed signals. Rate moderation in late 2025 contributed to renewed demand, while the product mix continued to evolve. Conventional loans remained dominant at approximately 72% of originations, yet Veterans Affairs (VA) loans experienced the highest growth between 2023 and 2025, reaching 10.8% market share (Experian, 2026).  At the same time, second mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) gained momentum as homeowners sought liquidity without refinancing out of historically low interest rates. This trend reflects growing demand for equity-based solutions that preserve favorable first-mortgage terms (Experian, 2026).   Pull-through challenges: Only 34% of inquiries become loans  Conversion efficiency remains a key challenge. Only 34% of first-mortgage hard credit inquiries resulted in a completed mortgage origination, highlighting friction between borrower interest and loan fulfillment (Experian, 2026).  Consumer research reinforces this gap. In an Experian survey, 50% of respondents reported that understanding what they could qualify for would be the most helpful step in their homeownership journey, suggesting that improved prequalification tools could materially increase pull-through rates (Experian, 2026).   Affordability pressure goes beyond the mortgage  Between 2021 and 2025, property taxes increased by 15.2%, while non-tax escrow costs—primarily homeowners' insurance—rose by 67.4% nationwide (Experian, 2026).  State-level variation further complicates affordability assessments. Florida recorded the highest average non-tax escrow expenses at $430 per month largely due to sharp increase in home insurance costs. California, by contrast, exhibited the highest average property tax burden at $626, largely driven by elevated home values despite lower statutory tax rates (Experian, 2026). These dynamics underscore the importance of holistic cost modeling, particularly for first-time buyers.   Home equity: A lender’s growth frontier  Home equity remains a significant growth opportunity. An estimated 96.2 million consumers reside in owner-occupied homes, with substantial portions owning their homes outright or holding more than 20% equity (Experian, 2026). HELOC usage is increasing, particularly among younger borrowers, 50% of whom utilize more than 60% of their available HELOC credit, compared with 36% of older borrowers (Experian, 2026).  Market share shifts are also notable. Fintech lenders experienced a 140.2% increase in HELOC originations from 2023 to 2025, significantly outpacing banks and credit unions. These gains suggest that digital-first experiences and streamlined workflows are increasingly decisive factors for borrowers (Experian, 2026).   Risk and resilience: What credit and property data reveal  Overall delinquency rates eased slightly; however, near-prime and prime borrowers demonstrated early signs of stress, particularly within first-mortgage portfolios (Experian, 2026).  Property-level risk is also intensifying. Flood exposure increased by 3.7% nationally, with 26.4% of Florida homes identified as at risk. Rising exposure has contributed to escalating insurance costs, further affecting affordability and credit performance (Experian, 2026).  From a credit hierarchy perspective, secured debt—especially mortgages and auto loans—continued to show the lowest delinquency rates. In contrast, student loans and credit cards exhibited higher delinquency risk, particularly among financially constrained renters and homeowners (Experian, 2026).   Generational optimism versus macroeconomic constraints  Despite affordability headwinds, consumer optimism persists. Approximately 47% of renters believe they will be ready to purchase a home within four years, increasing to 67% within eight years (Experian, 2026).  Structural constraints remain significant. Roughly 70% of homeowners hold mortgage rates below 6%, contributing to limited housing inventory as current owners remain rate-locked. With 30-year mortgage rates still above that level and a softening labor market, even modest increases in unemployment could further pressure affordability (Experian, 2026).   Implications for lenders  Experian’s analysis highlights several strategic priorities for housing industry stakeholders:  Expand access to credit. Incorporate alternative data sources, such as cash-flow analytics and rental payment history, to responsibly extend credit to underserved but qualified borrowers (Experian, 2026).  Capitalize on equity demand. Develop HELOC offerings that are fast, flexible, and digitally enabled to meet the needs of equity-rich, rate-locked homeowners (Experian, 2026).  Enhance risk precision. Integrate credit, property, and behavioral data to identify emerging risk early, particularly among near-prime segments, and to support more accurate pricing and portfolio management (Experian, 2026).   Conclusion  The 2026 housing market reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic pressure, shifting borrower behavior, and growing reliance on home equity solutions. Agility and data-driven decision-making will be essential for lenders navigating this environment. The 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report offers critical insight to support growth while managing risk in an evolving landscape (Experian, 2026).  📘 Access the full report here: Experian 2026 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report  References  Experian. (2026). 2026 state of the U.S. housing market report. Experian.     

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