The Shape of The Recession Following COVID-19

by Kelly Nguyen 2 min read May 5, 2020

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic has created extreme volatility in the US markets. While the high unemployment rate and impact on the stock market can be attributed to the pandemic, there were signs that the economy was already headed for a downturn. In a recent webinar, Mohammed Chaudhri, Experian’s UK Chief Economist, stated, “Even in the absence of COVID-19, […] the consensus was that the US was going into a period of a slowdown. Talks of a recession were building and financial indicators all pointed to an inverse yield curve.” With a global recession on the horizon, economists are using different scenarios to forecast potential outcomes.

Chaudhri and his team of Experian economists mapped out four macroeconomic scenarios for economic recovery:

V-shape scenario: A scenario in which the U.S. is able to recover losses and is able to recover quickly – possibly within 3 months. The impacts of strict lockdowns and social distancing may allow for a V-shape recovery. This V-shape follows previous pandemics and is the most likely outcome.

Delayed V-shape scenario: A scenario in which the economy bounces back (albeit much slower than a regular V-shape). This may occur as various states slowly lift their lockdown guidelines and return to business as usual. This delay can be caused by regulations and guidelines that vary from state to state.

U-shape scenario: A scenario in which the U.S. is unable to return to pre-COVID-19.

W-shape scenario: A scenario that is much more serious than a U-shape and has the greatest impact on the economy. This can occur if the state lockdowns are lifted too early and a reemergence of the virus occurs.

In our latest on-demand webinar, our experts discuss current trends which are indicative of emerging patterns and highlight economic forecasts that show some immediate concentrations of risk and exposure and the implications for your organization. Take a deeper dive into the latest data insights relating to the credit economy, and specifically, the impact brought by COVID-19.

Explore the macroeconomic outlook, including:

  • The immediate and near-term economic impact
  • Views on how a downturn could impact consumers’ affordability and emerging signs of vulnerability
  • Views on what KPIs you should focus on

Watch the webinar

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The why behind Experian's acquisition of AtData What happens when a comprehensive email intelligence database joins a global leader in data, analytics and fraud prevention? The acquisition of AtData adds 25+ years of building a complete view of email as an identity signal. Financial institutions can recognize, engage and protect customers unlocking a new standard for the way their teams work and the customer experience. That's what Experian's acquisition of AtData delivers. How we got here Not all email addresses tell the same story. Some are newly created. Some exhibit bot-like patterns. Some are inconsistent with every other signal you have about that person. Imagine a real customer. You have a job. You shop online. You have a primary email from your employer, a personal Gmail you've used for 15 years, and an old Yahoo address you still use for shopping because you've been using it since college. You're an engaged customer who interacts with brands, makes purchases and pays bills on time. But each system sees a different version of you. When you apply for credit, the lender sees one email. When you shop, the retailer sees another. When you sign up for a service, you might use the third. For financial institutions: You slow down the approval process to manually verify identity or approve applicants without the full picture. For retailers: You can't tell which version of "customer" is the most engaged, so you either over-mail or under-serve. For fraud systems: Sees a new account created under one email and flags it as suspicious because it doesn't have the history. This was the original problem AtData was built to solve in 1999. Twenty-five years later, that problem didn’t go away, it became more complex. Email fragmentation and device sharing are more common, and identity theft is more sophisticated. Capabilities that now work together Experian has built sophisticated identity and fraud solutions backed by consumer data resources and decades of expertise in credit and risk. AtData brought the ability to assess whether an email address is trustworthy, reachable and consistent—at scale, in real time. Experian is now making email intelligence foundational, not optional. This matters for: Fraud prevention and risk management: Distinguishing a returning customer from a new threat. Knowing whether an email is newly created, exhibiting bot-like patterns or inconsistent with other identities is crucial. Compliance: Building audit trails that can explain identity decisions. Email data history and behavioral signals create the documentation needed to defend your decisions. Credit: Verifying identity in a world where traditional signals are shifting. Email signals provide a persistent, durable identifier that confirms who someone actually is. Marketing: Reaching the right person across email, mail and digital channels. Email intelligence reveals which addresses are actively engaged and reachable. Research shows email remains one of the highest-ROI marketing channels outperforming paid search and social advertising1. The problem every marketer faces: You end up burning budget on addresses that bounce, are unmonitored or are associated with users who never open mail. For credit marketing specifically, email enables faster, more targeted delivery of firm offers across channels, something that's increasingly important in a post-cookie world. "Email is a persistent identifier in a fragmented world. It's what connects a person's postal address, phones, devices, behaviors—the full picture of who they are. By embedding that into our infrastructure, we're not just adding another data point. We're fundamentally improving how businesses understand who their customers are."- Ashley Knight, Senior Vice President, Financial Services and Data Why now? AI is reshaping how decisions are made in every industry. Models are getting faster, more automated and more embedded in core workflows. But AI is only as effective as the data behind it. Fragmented data + fast models = faster, larger-scale misclassifications. In an era of synthetic identities, AI agents, deepfakes and AI-generated activity, the value of durable, persistent, real-world data signals has increased dramatically. Deloitte’s Center for Financial Services projects that generative AI could drive fraud losses in the U.S. up to $40 billion by 2027, a 32% growth rate since 2023. And email sits at the center of it with business email compromise already being one of the most common and costly fraud types. People change phones, move homes and swap devices, but they often hold onto their email for years. That's the signal that protects your business, and the one we've built into the core of how we help you make decisions with confidence. View the press release here

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