Tag: predictive analytics

Financial institutions can unlock value through analytics to gain insights that drive smarter decisions and better business results.

"Grandma, it’s me, Mike.” Imagine hearing the voice of a loved one (or what sounds like it) informing you they were arrested and in need of bail money. Panicked, a desperate family member may follow instructions to withdraw a large sum of money to provide to a courier. Suspicious, they even make a video call to which they see a blurry image on the other end, but the same voice. When the fight or flight feeling settles, reality hits. Sadly, this is not the scenario of an upcoming Netflix movie. This is fraud – an example of a new grandparent scam/family emergency scam happening at scale across the U.S. While generative AI is driving efficiencies, personalization and improvements in multiple areas, it’s also a technology being adopted by fraudsters. Generative AI can be used to create highly personalized and convincing messages that are tailored to a specific victim. By analyzing publicly available social media profiles and other personal information, scammers can use generative AI to create fake accounts, emails, or phone calls that mimic the voice and mannerisms of a grandchild or family member in distress. The use of this technology can make it particularly difficult to distinguish between real and fake communication, leading to increased vulnerability and susceptibility to fraud. Furthermore, generative AI can also be used to create deepfake videos or audio recordings that show the supposed family member in distress or reinforce the scammer's story. These deepfakes can be incredibly realistic, making it even harder for victims to identify fraudulent activity. What is Generative AI? Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) describes algorithms that can be used to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos. Generative AI has the potential to revolutionize many industries by creating new and innovative content, but it also presents a significant risk for financial institutions. Cyber attackers can use generative AI to produce sophisticated malware, phishing schemes, and other fraudulent activities that can cause data breaches, financial losses, and reputational damage. This poses a challenge for financial organizations, as human error remains one of the weakest links in cybersecurity. Fraudsters capitalizing on emotions such as fear, stress, desperation, or inattention can make it difficult to protect against malicious content generated by generative AI, which could be used as a tactic to defraud financial institutions. Four types of Generative AI used for Fraud: Fraud automation at scale Fraudulent activities often involve multiple steps which can be complex and time-consuming. However, GenAI may enable fraudsters to automate each of these steps, thereby establishing a comprehensive framework for fraudulent attacks. The modus operandi of GenAI involves the generation of scripts or code that facilitates the creation of programs capable of autonomously pilfering personal data and breaching accounts. Previously, the development of such codes and programs necessitated the expertise of seasoned programmers, with each stage of the process requiring separate and fragmented development. Nevertheless, with the advent of GenAI, any fraudster can now access an all-encompassing program without the need for specialized knowledge, amplifying the inherent danger it poses. It can be used to accelerate fraudsters techniques such as credential stuffing, card testing and brute force attacks. Text content generation In the past, one could often rely on spotting typos or errors as a means of detecting such fraudulent schemes. However, the emergence of GenAI has introduced a new challenge, as it generates impeccably written scripts that possess an uncanny authenticity, rendering the identification of deceit activities considerably more difficult. But now, GenAI can produce realistic text that sounds as if it were from a familiar person, organization, or business by simply feeding GenAI prompts or content to replicate. Furthermore, the utilization of innovative Language Learning Model (LLM) tools enables scammers to engage in text-based conversations with multiple victims, skillfully manipulating them into carrying out actions that ultimately serve the perpetrators' interests. Image and video manipulation In a matter of seconds, fraudsters, regardless of their level of expertise, are now capable of producing highly authentic videos or images powered by GenAI. This innovative technology leverages deep learning techniques, using vast amounts of collected datasets to train artificial intelligence models. Once these models are trained, they possess the ability to generate visuals that closely resemble the desired target. By seamlessly blending or superimposing these generated images onto specific frames, the original content can be replaced with manipulated visuals. Furthermore, the utilization of AI text-to-image generators, powered by artificial neural networks, allows fraudsters to input prompts in the form of words. These prompts are then processed by the system, resulting in the generation of corresponding images, further enhancing the deceptive capabilities at their disposal. Human voice generation The emergence of AI-generated voices that mimic real people has created new vulnerabilities in voice verification systems. Firms that rely heavily on these systems, such as investment firms, must take extra precautions to ensure the security of their clients' assets. Criminals can also use AI chatbots to build relationships with victims and exploit their emotions to convince them to invest money or share personal information. Pig butchering scams and romance scams are examples of these types of frauds where AI chatbots can be highly effective, as they are friendly, convincing, and can easily follow a script. In particular, synthetic identity fraud has become an increasingly common tactic among cybercriminals. By creating fake personas with plausible social profiles, hackers can avoid detection while conducting financial crimes. It is essential for organizations to remain vigilant and verify the identities of any new contacts or suppliers before engaging with them. Failure to do so could result in significant monetary loss and reputational damage. Leverage AI to fight bad actors In today's digital landscape, businesses face increased fraud risks from advanced chatbots and generative technology. To combat this, businesses must use the same weapons than criminals, and train AI-based tools to detect and prevent fraudulent activities. Fraud prediction: Generative AI can analyze historical data to predict future fraudulent activities. By analyzing patterns in data and identifying potential risk factors, generative AI can help fraud examiners anticipate and prevent fraudulent behavior. Machine learning algorithms can analyze patterns in data to identify suspicious behavior and flag it for further investigation. Fraud Investigation: In addition to preventing fraud, generative AI can assist fraud examiners in investigating suspicious activities by generating scenarios and identifying potential suspects. By analyzing email communications and social media activity, generative AI can uncover hidden connections between suspects and identify potential fraudsters. To confirm the authenticity of users, financial institutions should adopt sophisticated identity verification methods that include liveness detection algorithms and document-centric identity proofing, and predictive analytics models. These measures can help prevent bots from infiltrating their systems and spreading disinformation, while also protecting against scams and cyberattacks. In conclusion, financial institutions must stay vigilant and deploy new tools and technologies to protect against the evolving threat landscape. By adopting advanced identity verification solutions, organizations can safeguard themselves and their customers from potential risks. To learn more about how Experian can help you leverage fraud prevention solutions, visit us online or request a call

Business leaders accross industries are using predictive analytics to make informed decisions.

The automotive marketing world has benefited from cookie-based information to help identify and reach consumers in the market for a vehicle. Now that cookies will be going away, marketers need to find alternate ways to find in-market consumers. Let’s explore. What are cookies? Created to personalize internet browsing experiences, cookies are small pieces of code placed within a user’s browser whenever someone visits a specific website. Cookies typically track the website’s name and a generated unique user ID. They can capture page clicks, viewed web pages, clicks within a website, and Personally Identifiable Information (PII) such as an address, name, and device IDs. How are cookies used in marketing? Cookie data helps automotive marketers enhance the user experience by better understanding consumer behaviors to deliver targeted, relevant messaging that moves the consumer through the buying funnel. For example, think about when a consumer researches RVs/travel trailers to see if their current vehicle can handle towing a camper or when they search for the best way to hook up a camper. A dealer could use this cookie data to send advertisements for trucks with a towing package that could potentially tow a trailer. Cookie support is ending, so now what? In 2020, Google announced it would end support for cookies in the Chrome browser by early 2022. This timeline was established to allow Google to address the needs of users, publishers, and advertisers to respond and look for workarounds. The revised timeline puts Google’s cookie retirement in 2023. Marketers have been using cookie data in advertising for years, so what are the options when cookie data goes away? Cookie alternatives Automotive marketers can tackle a cookie-less world by using other sources of consumer data insights. For instance, a third-party data aggregator, like Experian, has access to numerous sources, platforms, and websites. Beyond that, we have access to a vast range of specific consumer data insights, including vehicle ownership, registrations, vehicle history data, and lending data. We take all that information and help marketers segment audiences and predict what consumers will do next. (That’s more than the average cookie!) Sample audience segment information: Consumers in market Loan status In positive equity Driving a specific year/make/model 1000+ lifestyle events such as new baby, marriage, new home Geography, demographics, psychographics To take it to the next level, we can use predictive analytics to go beyond what cookie data could provide by predicting who is ready to purchase a vehicle. In our example above, a marketer used cookie data to find buyers who had shown interest in a tow package, but that’s where it ended. By combining audience segmentation with a predictive model, marketers can target and identify consumers in-market and most likely ready to purchase a vehicle with a tow package. In this way, the data-driven insights from a third-party data provider specializing in automotive insights can replace the cookie-driven approach and take it a significant step beyond. Other ways to reach consumers in a cookie-less world Automotive marketers can also use data-driven insights to further explore specific channels where consumers spend their time. Social media, for example, is an effective channel to reach consumers. Marketers can go beyond standard Facebook audiences by utilizing Experian audience segmentation and predictive analytics to highly target consumers on Facebook. So, if you can predict when a consumer will be in-market, and you know in what channel they spend most of their time, you can target them with specific messages about your dealership and your vehicles. With cookies becoming a tool of the past, knowing who is likely to be in-market, what message resonates with them, and the best channel to use allows marketers to move beyond cookie-based strategies effectively. So, let the cookie crumble! For a deeper dive into cookies, watch this recorded webinar from the 2021 Digital Marketing Strategies conference: As the Cookies Crumble, How Will Automotive Digital Marketing Respond? Presented by Experian's Amy Hughes, Sr. Director of Dealer Intelligence. Learn more about Experian’s Automotive Intelligence Engine and how audience segmentation and predictive analytics can drive more in-market buyers to your dealership.

In our most recent podcast, Experian experts discuss how to enhance your portfolio analysis after an economic downturn and drive greater access to credit.

Customers expect seamless and excellent customer experiences – that’s where the power of advanced analytics comes into play.

Collections strategies demand diverse approaches, which is where collections analytics and collections models come into play. Read more!

Experian is ushering a new age of consumer empowerment with Experian Boost, which eliminates the guesswork of what goes into a credit score.

Experian estimates card-to-card consumer balance transfer activity to be between $35 and $40 billion a year, representing a sizeable opportunity for proactive lenders seeking to grow their revolving product line. This opportunity, however, is a threat for reactive lenders that only measure portfolio attrition instead of working to retain current customers. While billions of dollars are transferred every year, this activity represents only a small percentage of the total card population. And given the expense of direct marketing, lenders seeking to capitalize on and protect their portfolio from balance transfer activity must leverage data insights to make more informed decisions. Predicting a consumer’s future propensity to engage in card-to-card balance transfers starts with trended data. A credit score is a snapshot in time, but doesn’t reveal deep insights about a consumer’s past balance transfer activity. Lenders that rely only on current utilization will group large populations of balance revolvers into one bucket – and many of these individuals will have no intention of transferring to another product in the near future. Still, balance transfer activity can be identified and predicted by utilizing trended data. By analyzing the spend and payment data over time to see when one (or multiple) trade’s payment approximately matches another trade’s spend, we have the logic that suggests there has been a card-to-card transfer. What most people don’t realize is that trended data is difficult to work with. With 24 months of history on five fields, a single trade includes 120 data points. That’s 720 data points for a consumer with six trades on file and 72,000,000 for a file with 100,000 records, not to mention the other data fields in the file. It’s easy to see why even the most sophisticated organizations become paralyzed working with trended data. While teams of analysts get buried in the data, projects drag, costs swell, and eventually the world changes as rates climb and fall. By the time the analysis is complete, it must be recalibrated. But there is a solution. Experian has developed powerful predictions tools that combine past balance transfer history, historical transfer amounts, current trades carried and utilized, payments, and spend. Combined, these data fields can help identify consumers who are most likely to transfer a balance in the future. With Experian’s Balance Transfer Index the highest scoring 10 percent of consumers capture nearly 70 percent of total balance transfer dollars. Imagine the impact on ROI of reducing 90 percent of the marketing cost of your next balance transfer campaign and still reaching 70 percent of the balance transfer activity. Balance transfer activity represents a meaningful dollar opportunity for growth, but is concentrated in a small percentage of the population making predictive analytics key to success. Trended data is essential for identifying those opportunities, but financial institutions must assess their capabilities when it comes to managing the massive data attached. The good news is that regardless of financial institution size, solutions now exist to capture the analytics and provide meaningful and actionable insights to lenders of all sizes.

All customers are not created equal - at least when it comes to ability to pay. So what are the natural moments for a lender to assess?

Every portfolio has a set of delinquent customers who do not make their payments on time. Truth. Every lender wants to collect on those payments. Truth. But will you really ever be able to recover all of those delinquent funds? Sadly, no. Still, financial institutions often treat all delinquent customers equally, working the account the same and assuming eventually they’ll get their funds. The sentiment to recover is good, but a lot of collection resources are wasted on customers who are difficult or impossible to recover. The good news? There is a better way. Predictive analytics can help optimize the allocation of collection resources by identifying the most effective accounts to prioritize to your best collectors, do not contact and proceed to legal actions to significantly increase the recovery of dollars, and at the same time reduce collection costs. I had the opportunity to recently present at the annual Debt Buyer Association’s International Conference and chat with my peers about this very topic. We asked the room, “How many of you are using scoring to determine how to work your collection accounts?” The response was 50/50, revealing many of these well-intentioned collectors are working themselves too hard, and likely not getting the desired returns. Before you dive into your collections work, you need to respond to two questions: Which accounts am I going to work first? How am I going to work those accounts? This is where scoring enters the scene. A scoring model is a statistical algorithm that assigns a numerical expression based on known information to predict an unknown future outcome. You can then use segmentation to group individuals with others that show the same behavior characteristics and rank order groups for collection strategies. In short, you allow the score to dictate the collection efforts and slope your expenses based on the propensity and expected amount of the consumer to pay. This will inform you on: What type, if any, skip trace tactic you should use? If you should purchase additional data? What intensity you should work the account? With scoring, you will see different performances on different debts. If you have 100 accounts you are collecting on, you’ll then want to find the accounts where you will have the greatest likelihood to collect, and collect the most dollars. I like to say, “You can’t get blood from a stone.” Well the same holds true for certain accounts in your collections pile. Try all you like, but you’ll never recoup those dollars, or the dollars you do recoup will be minimal. With a scoring strategy, you can establish your “hit list” and find the most attractive accounts to collect on, and also match your most profitable accounts with your best collectors. My message to anyone managing a collections portfolio can be summed up in three key messages. You need to use scoring in your business to optimize resources and increase profits. The better data that goes into your model will net you better performance results. Get a compliance infrastructure in place so you can ensure you are collecting the right way and stay out of trouble. The beauty of scores is they tell you what to do. It will help you best match resources to the most profitable accounts, and work smarter, not harder. That’s the power of scoring.