Loading...

Automotive Industry Demonstrates Resilience in Q3 2020

by Melinda Zabritski 2 min read December 14, 2020

Black man sitting in car dealer showroom on the phone

The automotive industry has been through it’s fair share of challenges over the years. COVID-19 may have taken the industry by surprise, but as with the other downturns we’ve seen, it’s showing strong signs of rebounding. Particularly in the third quarter of 2020, there have been a number of positive trends.

Things aren’t quite back to normal, as loan volume was still down in Q3 2020. However, there was growth in overall loan balances, which grew 2.8%, bringing outstanding loan balances to $1.2 trillion. Despite volume decreases, overall, the industry continued to move forward at a steady pace. Here are some of the notable findings from Q3 2020.

Subprime originations reach record lows

Subprime originations comprised only 17.53% of originations in Q3 2020, which is a historic low. While it may be tempting to point to COVID-19 as the singular reason, it’s likely driven by a combination of factors. COVID-19 has noticeably impacted subprime originations, but these decreases have been ongoing for some time. In Q3 2015, total subprime made up 22.9% of originations and has steadily decreased since then. Additionally, since 2015, we’ve seen steady increases in overall credit quality, so there are fewer consumers who fall into the subprime category.

Longer-term loans help offset average payments

The average new vehicle loan amount in Q3 2020 was $34,635, which was more than a $2,000 increase year-over-year. Average used vehicle loan amounts also increased, but at a more modest rate of $945, bringing the average to $21,438 in Q3 2020. With large increases in average loan amounts, there’s often an assumption that average payments will follow suit, but that wasn’t the case: the average new vehicle monthly payment only saw an $11 increase year-over-year to $563, while average used vehicle payments increased $6 to $397.

Why didn’t we see larger spikes in average payments? There are two main factors: lower interest rates, and longer loan terms. Average interest rates for new vehicle loans dropped from 5.38% in Q3 2019 to 4.22% in Q3 2020, and from 9.09% to 8.43% for used vehicle loans in the same time period. Average loan terms extended slightly to 69.68 months for new vehicles and 65.15 months for used. Both have an impact on payment amount, as the longer you stretch out the loan, when combined with lower interest rates, can help keep monthly payments manageable.

The trends outlined here are just a snapshot of the automotive industry in Q3 2020, but it paints a positive picture. Data will continue to play a critical role in the country’s continued economic recovery, as it empowers lenders and dealers to make more informed decisions and ensure they have the right options available for consumers.

To view the full Q3 2020 State of the Automotive Finance Market report, click here.

Related Posts

Model inventories are rapidly expanding. AI-enabled tools are entering workflows that were once deterministic and decisioning environments are more interconnected than ever. At the same time, regulatory scrutiny around model risk management continues to intensify. In many institutions, classification determines validation depth, monitoring intensity, and escalation pathways while informing board reporting. If classification is wrong, every downstream control is misaligned. And, in 2026, model classification is no longer just about assigning a tier, but rather about understanding data lineage, use case evolution, interdependencies, and governance accountability in a decentralized, AI-driven environment. We recently spoke with Mark Longman, Director of Analytics and Regulatory Technology, and here are some of his thoughts around five blind spots risk and compliance leaders should consider addressing now. 1. The “Set It and Forget It” Mentality The Blind Spot Model classification frameworks are often designed during a regulatory remediation effort or inventory modernization initiative. Once documented and approved, they can remain largely unchanged for years. However, model risk management is an ongoing process. “There’s really no sort of one and done when it comes to model risk management,” said Longman. Why It Matters Classification is not merely descriptive, it’s prescriptive. It drives the depth of validation, the frequency of monitoring, the intensity of governance oversight and the level of senior management visibility. As Longman notes, data fragmentation is compounding the challenge. “There’s data everywhere – internal, cloud, even shadow IT – and it’s tough to get a clear view into the inputs into the models,” he said. When inputs are unclear, tiering becomes inherently subjective and if classification frameworks are not reviewed regularly, governance intensity can become misaligned with real exposure. Therefore, static classification is a growing risk, especially in a world of rapidly expanding AI use cases. In a supervisory environment that continues to scrutinize model definitions, particularly as AI tools proliferate, a dynamic, periodically refreshed classification process can demonstrate institutional vigilance. 2. Assuming Third-Party Models Reduce Governance Accountability The Blind SpotThere is often an implicit belief that vendor-provided models carry less governance burden because they were developed externally. Why It Matters Vendor provided models continue to grow, particularly in AI-driven solutions, but supervisory expectations remain firm. “Third-party models do not diminish the responsibility of the institution for its governance and oversight of the model – whether it’s monitoring, ongoing validation, just evaluating drift model documentation,” Longman said. “The board and senior managers are responsible to make sure that these models are performing as expected and that includes third-party models.” Regulators consistently emphasize that institutions remain responsible for the outcomes produced by models used in their decisioning environments, regardless of origin. If a vendor model influences credit approvals, pricing, fraud decisions, or capital calculations, it directly affects customers, financial performance and compliance exposure. Treating third-party models as inherently lower risk can also distort internal tiering frameworks. When vendor models are under-classified, validation depth and monitoring rigor may be insufficient relative to their true impact. 3. Limited Situational Awareness of Model Interdependencies The Blind Spotfeed multiple downstream models simultaneously. Why It Matters Risk often flows across interdependencies. When upstream models degrade in performance or introduce bias, downstream models inherit that exposure. If multiple material decisions depend on the same data transformation or feature engineering process, concentration risk emerges. Without visibility into these dependencies, tiering assessments may underestimate cumulative risk, and monitoring frameworks may fail to detect systemic vulnerabilities. “There has to be a holistic view of what models are being used for – and really somebody to ensure there’s not that overlap across models,” Longman said. Supervisors are increasingly interested in understanding how model risk propagates through business processes. When institutions cannot articulate how models interact, it raises broader concerns about situational awareness and control effectiveness. Therefore, capturing interdependencies within the classification framework enhances more than documentation. It enables more accurate tiering, more targeted monitoring and more informed governance oversight. 4. Excluding Models Without Defensible Rationale The Blind SpotGray-area tools frequently sit outside formal inventories: rule-based engines, spreadsheet models, scenario calculators, heuristic decision aids, or emerging AI tools used for analysis and summarization. These tools may not neatly fit legacy definitions of a “model,” and so they are sometimes excluded without robust documentation. Why It Matters Regulatory definitions of “model” have broadened over time. What creates risk is the absence of defensible reasoning and documentation. Longman describes the risk clearly: “Some [teams] are deploying AI solutions that are sort of unbeknownst to the model risk management community – and almost creating what you might think of as a shadow model inventory.” Without visibility, institutions cannot confidently characterize use, trace inputs, or assign appropriate tiers, according to Longman. It also undermines the credibility of the official inventory during examinations. A well-governed program can articulate why certain tools fall outside model risk management scope, referencing documented criteria aligned with regulatory guidance. Without that evidence, exclusions can appear arbitrary, suggesting gaps in oversight. 5. Inconsistent or Subjective Classification Frameworks The Blind SpotAs inventories scale and governance teams expand, classification decisions are often distributed across reviewers. Over time, discrepancies can emerge. Why It Matters Inconsistency undermines both risk management and regulatory confidence. If two models with comparable use cases and impact profiles are assigned different tiers without clear justification, it signals that the framework is not being applied uniformly. AI adds even more complexity. When it comes to emerging AI model governance versus traditional model governance, there’s a lot to unpack, says Longman: “The AI models themselves are a lot more complicated than your traditional logistic or multiple regression models. The data, the prompting, you need to monitor the prompts that the LLMs for example are responding to and you need to make sure you can have what you may think of as prompt drift,” Longman said. As frameworks evolve, particularly to incorporate AI, automation, and new regulatory interpretations, institutions must ensure that changes are cascaded across the entire inventory. Partial updates or selective reclassification introduce fragmentation. Longman recommends formalizing classification through a structured decision tree embedded in policy to ensure consistent outcomes across business units. Beyond clear documentation, a strong classification program is applied consistently, measured objectively, and periodically reassessed across the full portfolio. BONUS – 6. Elevating Classification with Data-Level Visibility Some institutions are extending classification discipline beyond models to the data layer itself. Longman describes organizations that maintain not only a model inventory, but a data inventory, mapping variables to the models they influence. This approach allows institutions to quickly assess downstream effects when operational or environmental changes occur including system updates or even natural disasters affecting payment behavior. In an AI-driven environment, traceability may become a competitive differentiator. Conclusion Model classification is foundational. It determines how risk is measured, monitored, escalated, and reported. In a rapidly evolving regulatory and technological environment, it cannot remain static. Institutions that invest now in transparency, consistency, and data-level visibility will not only reduce supervisory friction – they will build a governance framework capable of supporting the next generation of AI-enabled decisioning. Learn more

by Stefani Wendel 2 min read March 20, 2026

  As vehicle prices and interest rates continue to evolve, both consumers and lenders are recalibrating their approaches to affordability and long-term sustainability. This shift has resulted in the subprime segment growing to its largest share of total finance market for subprime in the fourth quarter since 2021. According to Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q4 2025, subprime borrowers accounted for 15.31% of total vehicle financing, an increase from 14.54% in Q4 2024. To understand why the subprime space is evolving, we took a deeper dive into the affordability picture and how changes in pricing and interest rates are influencing both consumer decisions and lender strategies. In Q4 2025, the average loan amount for a new vehicle increased $1,882 from the prior year to $43,582, and the average interest rate for a new vehicle went from 6.34% last year to 6.37% this quarter. As a result, the average monthly payment increased from $746 to $767 in the same time frame. On the used side, the average loan amount increased $872 year-over-year, reaching $27,528 in Q4 2025. However, despite the average interest rate declining from 11.63% to 11.26% during the same time, the average monthly payment grew $9 from last year to $537 this quarter. These changes are prompting thoughtful adjustments across the automotive ecosystem. Consumers are comparing financing options more carefully and adjusting loan terms when necessary to prioritize the cost of ownership. Lenders are also focusing more on payment flexibility and how long-term borrowers are performing as they leverage it for central pillars of strategies to stay ahead of the ever-evolving market. To learn more about automotive finance trends, view the full State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q4 2025 presentation on demand.

by Melinda Zabritski 2 min read March 5, 2026

We’re excited to share that Experian Automotive’s client Hamlin & Associates and Honda World have been named winners of the 2025 Automotive News / Ad Age Global Automotive Marketing Award for Best Use of Data — an honor that celebrates meaningful, measurable impact. Why this work stood out Hamlin & Associates' client, Honda World of Louisville, KY, faced a clear challenge: re-engage customers and recover declining service revenue, particularly for vehicles with open recalls. Hamlin & Associates approached the problem with a simple belief: clean, accurate data leads to better outcomes for customers and dealerships alike. They began with data hygiene, then enriched each vehicle record using Experian Automotive’s Recall VIN Verification solution. This created a precise view of who owned which vehicles, which recalls were still open, and when repairs could be completed — all essential to a smooth customer experience. A smarter, more human outreach strategy Over the course of a year, Hamlin delivered four waves of direct mail designed to cut through the noise. Each letter: Spoke directly to the customer Highlighted their specific vehicle Explained the recall in clear language Showed how easy it was to book a free repair The result was a data-driven communication plan grounded in trust and simplicity — and it worked Results that show what’s possible 26% response rate 1,953 repair orders $811,834 in service revenue Thousands of customers are now driving safer vehicles These outcomes reflect more than campaign performance. They demonstrate what happens when dealers, agencies, and data partners collaborate to guide individuals toward safer, more informed decisions. In their words John Hamlin, Hamlin & Associates:“Clean data builds trust. When we combine our hygiene process with Experian Automotive insights, dealers uncover opportunities they never knew they had.” Mike Porro, Honda World:“They keep it simple, and data-driven ‘simple’ gets done. We follow the process, train our staff, and see the results.” Looking ahead We’re proud to celebrate Hamlin & Associates and Honda World for showing what’s achievable when data, insight, and clear communication come together. Their work helps people stay safe, strengthens customer relationships, and sets a new standard for recall outreach. Congratulations to the entire team — and here’s to helping even more drivers move forward Learn more about how to enrich your first-party data with Recall VIN Verification insights!  

by Trish Radaj 2 min read December 18, 2025

Subscribe to our Auto blog

Enter your name and email for the latest updates.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.