Loading...

Optimizing Lending Operations in a Time of Extreme Uncertainty

Published: April 14, 2020 by Jim Bander

This is the first to a series of blog posts highlighting optimization, artificial intelligence, predictive analytics, and decisioning for lending operations in times of extreme uncertainty.

Like all businesses, lenders are facing tremendous change and uncertainty in the face of the COVID-19 crisis.  While focusing first on how to keep their employees and customers safe during the new normal, they are asking how to make data-driven decisions in this new environment.  It’s only natural that business people are skeptical about whether analytics will work in a situation like today’s – in which the data deviate from all historical precedents.  Certainly, nobody predicted, for example, that the number of loans with forbearance requests would increase by over 1000% during each two-week period in March. Can anyone possibly make an optimized decision when things are changing so quickly and when so many things are unknown?

Prescriptive analytics – also known as mathematical optimization – is the practice of developing a business strategy to achieve a business objective subject to capacity and other constraints, often using a demand forecast. For example, banks use optimization software to develop marketing and debt management strategies to run their lending operations.  But what happens when the demand forecast might be wrong, when the constraints change quickly, and when decision-makers cannot agree on a single objective? The reality is that decisionmakers have to balance multiple competing objectives related to many different stakeholders. And, especially during the COVID-19 crisis and the period of change that will certainly follow, they have to do so in the face of uncertainty.

Let’s discuss some of the methods that analysts use to control risk while optimizing lending practices during times like these. These techniques, collectively known as robust optimization and robust statistics, help lenders and other business people deal with the uncomfortable reality that we do not know what the future holds.  

Consider a hypothetical bank or other lender servicing a portfolio of consumer loans and forecasting its loss performance in this environment. Management probably has several competing objectives: they want to improve service levels on their digital channel, they want to minimize credit and fraud losses, they’re facing a reduced operating budget, and they’re not certain how many employees they will have and which vendors will be able to provide adequate service levels. Furthermore, they anticipate new and unpredicted changes, and they need to be able to update their strategies quickly.

The mathematics can be quite technical, but Experian’s Marketswitch Optimization is user-friendly software to help businesspeople–not engineers–design and deploy optimal strategies for practices such as Account Management and Loan Originations while facing such a dynamic and uncertain environment. The bank’s business analysts (not computer specialists or mathematicians) will use techniques such as these:

  • With Sensitivity Analysis, the analysts will explore the performance of their optimized Account Management, Collections, and Loan Originations strategies while considering possible changes in input variables.
  • Optimization Scenarios with Uncertainty (technically known as Stochastic Optimization) allow the managers and analysts to design operational strategies that control risk, particularly the bank’s exposure to probabilistic and worst-case scenarios.
  • Using Scenario Performance Analysis, the lender’s team will validate and test their optimization scenarios against a variety of different data sets to understand how their strategies would perform in each case.
  • Model Quality Evaluation techniques help the credit risk managers compare model predictions against actual performance during a quickly changing economy.
  • Model impact analysis (related to Model Risk Management) helps senior leadership assess when it is time to invest in improving its statistical models.
  • Robust Model Calibration Analysis removes unjustifiable variations in the lender’s predictive models to make their predictions more valid as things change over time.

These six advanced analytics techniques are especially helpful when developing business strategies for a time in which some values are unknown—including future unemployment levels, staffing budgets, data reporting practices, interest rates, and customer demands.  Business decisions can—and arguably must—be optimized during times of uncertainty. But during times like these, it is especially important that the analysts understand how and why to account for the uncertainty in both the data and the models.

Lenders, are you optimizing your servicing and debt management strategies? It has never been more important than now to do so–using the advanced techniques available to manage uncertainty mathematically.

Learn more about how Marketswitch can help you solve complex business problems and meet organizational objectives.

Learn more

Related Posts

In today’s digital lending landscape, fraudsters are more sophisticated, coordinated, and relentless than ever. For companies like Terrace Finance — a specialty finance platform connecting over 5,000 merchants, consumers, and lenders — effectively staying ahead of these threats is a major competitive advantage. That is why Terrace Finance partnered with NeuroID, a part of Experian, to bring behavioral analytics into their fraud prevention strategy. It has given Terrace’s team a proactive, real-time defense that is transforming how they detect and respond to attacks — potentially stopping fraud before it ever reaches their lending partners. The challenge: Sophisticated fraud in a high-stakes ecosystem Terrace Finance operates in a complex environment, offering financing across a wide range of industries and credit profiles. With applications flowing in from countless channels, the risk of fraud is ever-present. A single fraudulent transaction can damage lender relationships or even cut off financing access for entire merchant groups. According to CEO Andy Hopkins, protecting its partners is a top priority for Terrace:“We know that each individual fraud attack can be very costly for merchants, and some merchants will get shut off from their lending partners because fraud was let through ... It is necessary in this business to keep fraud at a tolerable level, with the ultimate goal to eliminate it entirely.” Prior to NeuroID, Terrace was confident in its ability to validate submitted data. But with concerns about GenAI-powered fraud growing, including the threat of next-generation fraud bots, Terrace sought out a solution that could provide visibility into how data was being entered and detect risk before applications are submitted. The solution: Behavioral analytics from NeuroID via Experian After integrating NeuroID through Experian’s orchestration platform, Terrace gained access to real-time behavioral signals that detected fraud before data was even submitted. Just hours after Terrace turned NeuroID on, behavioral signals revealed a major attack in progress — NeuroID enabled Terrace to respond faster than ever and reduce risk immediately. “Going live was my most nerve-wracking day. We knew we would see data that we have never seen before and sure enough, we were right in the middle of an attack,” Hopkins said. “We thought the fraud was a little more generic and a little more spread out. What we found was much more coordinated activities, but this also meant we could bring more surgical solutions to the problem instead of broad strokes.” Terrace has seen significant results with NeuroID in place, including: Together, NeuroID and Experian enabled Terrace to build a layered, intelligent fraud defense that adapts in real time. A partnership built on innovation Terrace Finance’s success is a testament to what is  possible when forward-thinking companies partner with innovative technology providers. With Experian’s fraud analytics and NeuroID’s behavioral intelligence, they have built a fraud prevention strategy that is proactive, precise, and scalable. And they are not stopping there. Terrace is now working with Experian to explore additional tools and insights across the ecosystem, continuing to refine their fraud defenses and deliver the best possible experience for genuine users. “We use the analogy of a stream,” Hopkins explained. “Rocks block the flow, and as you remove them, it flows better. But that means smaller rocks are now exposed. We can repeat these improvements until the water flows smoothly.” Learn more about Terrace Finance and NeuroID Want more of the story? Read the full case study to explore how behavioral analytics provided immediate and long-term value to Terrace Finance’s innovative fraud prevention strategy. Read case study

Published: September 3, 2025 by Allison Lemaster

BIN attacks are a growing threat in today’s digital payments ecosystem. Learn how to mitigate these attacks to reduce losses.

Published: August 27, 2025 by Theresa Nguyen

Financial institutions can unlock value through analytics to gain insights that drive smarter decisions and better business results.

Published: July 24, 2025 by Brian Funicelli