Tag: portfolio management

The current pandemic will affect the way financial institutions lend and provide credit. Shawn Rife, Experian’s Director of Product Scoring, discusses the ways that financial institutions can navigate the COVID-19 crisis. Check out what he had to say: What implications does the global pandemic have on financial institutions’ analytical needs?  SR: In the customer lifecycle, there are 4 different stages: prospecting, acquisitions, portfolio management, and collections. During times of economic uncertainty, lenders typically take additional actions to ensure that there’s a first line of defense against delinquencies and payment stress. Expanding their focus to incorporate account review/portfolio management becomes particularly important. During this time, clients will be looking for leadership, early warning signs, and ways to recession-proof their portfolios (account management), while growing and maintaining their approvals in a healthy way (originations). Lenders may be well advised to delay any focus on collections, since many consumers may be facing major payment stress through no mismanagement of their own doing. Another critical component is with the rollout of government stimulus packages, which lenders can use to identify people in stress who could benefit for second chance opportunities they may not have otherwise been able to receive. As more consumers seek credit, from an analytics perspective, what considerations should financial institutions be making during this time?  SR: Financial institutions should be assessing and pre-identifying situations that might place consumers in positions of elevated financial stress. That way, organizations can implement solutions to identify and help at-risk consumers before they fall delinquent. The recent Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) – coupled with Experian’s score treatment, are designed to protect consumers against score declines during times of crisis. Furthermore, lenders can provide forbearance and loan deferment programs to help consumers.  For lenders, credit risk scores, models, and attributes are the best ways to identify – and even predict - delinquency risk. The FICO® Resilience Index can also identify consumers who are particularly susceptible to delinquency risk directly due to macroeconomic uncertainty. This gives lenders the opportunity to evaluate their portfolios for loss and connect with consumers who may be in need of further support. What is the smartest next play for financial institutions?  SR: For financial institutions, the smart play is to add alternative data into their data-driven decisioning strategies as much as possible. Alternative data works to enhance your ability to see a consumer’s entire credit portfolio, which gives lenders the confidence to continue to lend – as well as the ability to track and monitor a consumer’s historical performance (which is a good indicator of whether or not a consumer has both the intention and ability to repay a loan). How will the new attribute subset list benefit financial institutions during this time?   SR: Experian’s series of crisis attributes is an example of attributes that can be predictive in times of a crisis. These lists were designed to follow the 3 E’s – Expand, Enhance, and provide Ease of use. Enhance – With these attributes, lenders aren’t limited to traditional data. These attributes allow lenders to look at the entirety of a consumer’s credit or repayment behavior and use more data to make better lending decisions. This becomes crucial in a challenging environment. Expand – This data can also help lenders identify consumers who are in the market for products and services, even if there the lending criteria becomes more stringent. This can open doors and new opportunities for 40-50 million new customers, particularly ones that may not fit initial lending criteria. Ease of Use – Experian has put together the most predictive elements that can identify consumer resilience and potential financial stress in this challenging economy. Experian is committed to helping your organization during times of uncertainty. For more resources, visit our Look Ahead 2020 Hub. Learn more Shawn M. Rife, Director of Risk Scoring, Experian Consumer Information Services, North America Shawn Rife manages Experian’s credit risk scoring models, focused on empowering clients to maximize the scope and influence of their lending universe - while minimizing risk - and complying with ever-changing regulatory standards. Shawn also leads the implementation of Alternative Data within the lending environment, as well as key product implementation initiatives. Prior to Experian, Shawn held key consumer insights and predictive analytics roles for Consumer Packaged Goods and internet companies. Over his career, Shawn has focused on market segmentation, competitive research, new product development and consumer advocacy. He also holds a Master’s degree from Harvard University and a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Economics.

The response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) health crisis requires a brand-new mindset from businesses across the country. As part of our recently launched Q&A perspective series, Jim Bander, Market Lead of Analytics and Optimization and Kathleen Peters, Senior Vice President of Fraud and Identity, provided insight into how businesses can work to mitigate fraud and portfolio risk. Q: How can financial institutions mitigate fraud risk while monitoring portfolios? JB: The most important shift in portfolio monitoring is the view of the customer, because it’s very different during times of crisis than it is during expansionary periods. Financial institutions need to take a holistic view of their customers and use additional credit dimensions to understand consumers’ reactions to stress. While many businesses were preparing for a recession, the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus has already surpassed the stress-testing that most businesses performed. To help mitigate the increased risk, businesses need to understand how their stress testing was performed in the past and run new stress tests to understand how financially sound their institution is. KP: Most businesses—and particularly financial institutions—have suspended or relaxed many of their usual risk mitigation tools and strategies, in an effort to help support customers during this time of uncertainty. Many financial institutions are offering debt and late fee forgiveness, credit extensions, and more to help consumers bridge the financial gaps caused by the economic downturn. Unfortunately, the same actions that help consumers can hamstring fraud prevention efforts because they impact the usual risk indicators. To weather this storm, financial institutions need to pivot from standard risk mitigation strategies to more targeted fraud and identity strategies. Q: How can financial institutions’ exposure to risk be managed? JB: Financial institutions are trying to extend as much credit as is reasonably possible—per government guidelines—but when the first stage of this crisis passes, they need to be prepared to deal with the consequences. Specifically, which borrowers will actually repay their loans. Financial institutions should monitor consumer health and use proactive outreach to offer assistance while keeping a finger on the pulse of their customers’ financial health. For the foreseeable future, the focus will be on extending credit, not collecting on debt, but now is the time to start preparing for the economic aftermath. Consumer health monitoring is key, and it must include a strategy to differentiate credit abusers and other fraudsters from overall good consumers who are just financially stressed. KP: As financial institutions work to get all of their customers set up with online and mobile banking and account access, there’s an influx of new requests that all require consumer authentication, device identification, and sometimes even underwriting. All of this puts pressure on already strained resources which means increased fraud risk. To manage this risk, businesses need to balance customer experience—particularly minimizing friction—with vigilance against fraudsters and reputational risk. It will require a robust and flexible fraud strategy that utilizes automated tools as much as possible to free up personnel to follow up on the riskiest users and transactions.   Experian is closely monitoring the updates around the coronavirus outbreak and its widespread impact on both consumers and businesses. We will continue to share industry-leading insights to help financial institutions manage their portfolios and protect against losses. Learn more About Our Experts: [avatar user="jim.bander" /] Jim Bander, Market Lead, Analytics and Optimization, Experian Decision Analytics, North America Jim joined Experian in April 2018 and is responsible for solutions and value propositions applying analytics for financial institutions and other Experian business-to-business clients throughout North America. He has over 20 years of analytics, software, engineering and risk management experience across a variety of industries and disciplines. Jim has applied decision science to many industries, including banking, transportation and the public sector. [avatar user="kathleen.peters" /] Kathleen Peters, Vice President, Fraud and Identity, Experian Decision Analytics, North America Kathleen joined Experian in 2013 to lead business development and international sales for the recently acquired 41st Parameter business in San Jose, Calif. She went on to lead product management for Experian’s fraud and identity group within the global Decision Analytics organization, launching Experian’s CrossCore® platform in 2016, a groundbreaking and award-winning new offering for the fraud and identity market. The last two years, Kathleen has been named a “Top 100 Influencer in Identity” by One World Identity (OWI), an exclusive list that annually recognizes influencers and leaders from across the globe, showcasing a who’s who of people to know in the identity space.

In the face of severe financial stress, such as that brought about by an economic downturn, lenders seeking to reduce their credit risk exposure often resort to tactics executed at the portfolio level, such as raising credit score cut-offs for new loans or reducing credit limits on existing accounts. What if lenders could tune their portfolio throughout economic cycles so they don’t have to rely on abrupt measures when faced with current or future economic disruptions? Now they can. The impact of economic downturns on financial institutions Historically, economic hardships have directly impacted loan performance due to differences in demand, supply or a combination of both. For example, let’s explore the Great Recession of 2008, which challenged financial institutions with credit losses, declines in the value of investments and reductions in new business revenues. Over the short term, the financial crisis of 2008 affected the lending market by causing financial institutions to lose money on mortgage defaults and credit to consumers and businesses to dry up. For the much longer term, loan growth at commercial banks decreased substantially and remained negative for almost four years after the financial crisis. Additionally, lending from banks to small businesses decreased by 18 percent between 2008-2011. And – it was no walk in the park for consumers. Already faced with a rise in unemployment and a decline in stock values, they suddenly found it harder to qualify for an extension of credit, as lenders tightened their standards for both businesses and consumers. Are you prepared to navigate and successfully respond to the current environment? Those who prove adaptable to harsh economic conditions will be the ones most poised to lead when the economy picks up again. Introducing the FICO® Resilience Index The FICO® Resilience Index provides an additional way to evaluate the quality of portfolios at any point in an economic cycle. This allows financial institutions to discover and manage potential latent risk within groups of consumers bearing similar FICO® Scores, without cutting off access to credit for resilient consumers. By incorporating the FICO® Resilience Index into your lending strategies, you can gain deeper insight into consumer sensitivity for more precise credit decisioning. What are the benefits? The FICO® Resilience Index is designed to assess consumers with respect to their resilience or sensitivity to an economic downturn and provides insight into which consumers are more likely to default during periods of economic stress. It can be used by lenders as another input in credit decisions and account strategies across the credit lifecycle and can be delivered with a credit file, along with the FICO® Score. No matter what factors lead to an economic correction, downturns can result in unexpected stressors, affecting consumers’ ability or willingness to repay. The FICO® Resilience Index can easily be added to your current FICO® Score processes to become a key part of your resilience-building strategies. Learn more

Do you have 20/20 vision when it comes to the readiness of your organization? How financially healthy are your customers today? They are likely facing some challenges and difficult choices. Based on a study by the Center for Financial Services Innovation (CFSI), almost half of the US adult population - that’s 112.5 million - say they do not have enough savings to cover at least three months of living expenses. With debt rising and a possible recession on the horizon, it’s crucial to have a solid strategy in place for your organization. Here are three easy steps to help you prepare: Anticipate the recession before it arrives Gathering a complete view of your customers can be difficult if you have multiple systems, which can result in subjective, costly and inefficient processes. If you don’t have a full picture of your customers, it’s hard to understand their risk, behavior and ability to pay and to determine the most effective treatment decisions. Having the right data is only the first step. Using analytics to make sense of the data helps you better understand your customers at an individual level, which will increase recovery rates and improve the customer experience. Analytics can provide early-warning indicators that identify customers most likely to miss payments, predict future behavior, and deliver the best treatment option based on a customer’s specific situation or behavior. With a deeper understanding of at-risk customers, you can apply more targeted interventions that are specific to each customer, so you can be confident your collections process is individualized, efficient and fair. The result? A cost-effective, compliant process focused on retaining valuable customers and reducing losses.   What to look for: ✔ Know when customers are experiencing negative credit events ✔ View consumer credit trends that may not yet be visible on your own account base ✔ Watch for payment stress – understand the actual payment consumers are making. Is it changing? ✔ See individual trends and take action – are your customers sliding down to a lower score band? ✔ Understand how your client-base is performing within your own portfolio and with other organizations   Take immediate and impactful actions around risk mitigation and staffing Every interaction with consumers needs optimizing, from target marketing through to collections and recovery. Organizations that proactively modernize their business to scale and increase effectiveness before the next economic downturn may avoid struggling to address rising delinquencies when the economy corrects itself. This may improve portfolio performance and collection capabilities — significantly increasing recoveries, containing costs and sustaining returns. Identify underperforming products and inefficient processes by staff. Consider reassessing the data used and the manual processes required for making decisions. Optimize product pricing and areas where organizations or staff could automate the decision processes.   Areas to focus: ✔ Identity theft protection and account takeover awareness ✔ Improve underwriting strategy and automation ✔ Maximize profitability — drive spend, optimize approvals, line assignment and pricing ✔ Evaluate collection risk strategies and operational efficiencies   Design and deploy a strategy to be organizationally and technologically ready for change Communication is key in debt recovery. Failing to contact customers via their preferred channel can cause frustration and reduce the likelihood of recovery. Your customers are looking for a convenient and discreet way to negotiate or repay debt, and if you aren’t providing one, you’re incurring higher collections costs and lower recovery rates. With developments in the digital world, consumer interactions have changed. Most people prefer to communicate via mobile or online, with little to no human interaction. Behavioral analytics help to automate and decide the next best action, so you contact the right customer at the right time through the right channel. In addition, offering a convenient, discreet way to negotiate or repay debt can result in customers who are more engaged and more likely to pay. Online and self-service portals along with AI-powered chatbots use the latest technology to provide a safe and customer-centric experience, creating less time-consuming interactions and higher customer satisfaction. Your digital collections process is more convenient and less stressful for consumers and more profitable and compliant for you. Visualize the future... ✔ Superior customer service is embraced at the end of the customer life cycle as it is in the beginning ✔ Leverage data, analytics, software, and industry expertise to drive an automated collections process with fewer manual interventions ✔ Meet the growing expectation for digital consumer self-service by providing the ability to proactively negotiate and manage debt through preferred contact channels ✔ When economy and market conditions change for the worst, have the right data, analytics, software in place and be prepared to implement relevant collections strategies to remain competitive in the market   Don’t wait until the next recession hits. Our collaborative approach to problem solving ensures you have the right solution in place to solve your most complex problems and are ready for market changes. The combination of our data, analytics, fraud tools, decisioning software and consulting services will help you proactively manage your portfolio to minimize the flow of accounts into collections and modernize your collections and recovery processes. Learn More

Sometimes, the best offense is a good defense. That’s certainly true when it comes to detecting synthetic identities, which by their very nature become harder to find the longer they’ve been around. To launch an offense against synthetic identity fraud, you need to defend yourself from it at the top of your new customer funnel. Once fraudsters embed their fake identity into your portfolio, they become nearly impossible to detect. The Challenge Synthetic identity fraud is the fastest-growing type of financial crime in the United States. The cost to businesses is hard to determine because it’s not always caught or reported, but the amounts are staggering. According to the Aite Group, it was estimated to total at least $820 million in 2017 and grow to $1.2 billion by 2020. This type of theft begins when individual thieves and large-scale crime rings use a combination of compromised personal information—like unused social security numbers—and fabricated data to stitch together increasingly sophisticated personas. These well-crafted synthetic identities are hard to differentiate from the real deal. They often pass Know Your Customer, Customer Identification Program and other onboarding checks both in person and online. This puts the burden on you to develop new defense strategies or pay the price. Additionally, increasing pressure to grow deposits and expand loan portfolios may coincide with the relaxation of new customer criteria, allowing even more fraudsters to slip through the cracks. Because fraudsters nurture their fake identities by making payments on time and don’t exhibit other risk factors as their credit limits increase, detecting synthetic identities becomes nearly impossible, as does defending against them. How This Impacts Your Bottom Line Synthetic identity theft is sometimes viewed as a victimless crime, since no single individual has their entire identity compromised. But it’s not victimless. When undetected fraudsters finally max out their credit lines before vanishing, the financial institution is usually stuck footing the bill. These same fraudsters know that many financial institutions will automatically settle fraud claims below a specific threshold. They capitalize on this by disputing transactions just below it, keeping the goods or services they purchased without paying. Fraudsters can double-dip on a single identity bust-out by claiming identity theft to have charges removed or by using fake checks to pay off balances before maxing out the credit again and defaulting. The cost of not detecting synthetic identities doesn’t stop at the initial loss. It flows outward like ripples, including: Damage to your reputation as a trusted organization Fines for noncompliance with Know Your Customer Account opening and maintenance costs that are not recouped as they would be with a legitimate customer Mistakenly classifying fraudsters as bad debt write offs Monetary loss from fraudsters’ unpaid balances Rising collections costs as you try to track down people who don’t exist Less advantageous rates for customers in the future as your margins grow thinner These losses add up, continuing to impact your bottom line over and over again. Defensive Strategies So what can you do? Tools like eCBSV that will assist with detecting synthetic identities are coming but they’re not here yet. And once they’re in place, they won’t be an instant fix. Implementing an overly cautious fraud detection strategy on your own will cause a high number of false positives, meaning you miss out on revenue from genuine customers. Your best defense requires finding a partner to help you implement a multi-layered fraud detection strategy throughout the customer lifecycle. Detecting synthetic identities entails looking at more than a single factor (like length of credit history). You need to aggregate multiple data sets and connect multiple customer characteristics to effectively defend against synthetic identity fraud. Experian’s synthetic identity prevention tools include Synthetic Identity High Risk Score to incorporate the history and past relationships between individuals to detect anomalies. Additionally, our digital device intelligence tools perform link analyses to connect identities that seem otherwise separate. We help our partners pinpoint false identities not associated with an actual person and decrease charge offs, protecting your bottom line and helping you let good customers in while keeping false personas out. Find out how to get your synthetic identity defense in place today.

In today’s age of digital transformation, consumers have easy access to a variety of innovative financial products and services. From lending to payments to wealth management and more, there is no shortage in the breadth of financial products gaining popularity with consumers. But one market segment in particular – unsecured personal loans – has grown exceptionally fast. According to a recent Experian study, personal loan originations have increased 97% over the past four years, with fintech share rapidly increasing from 22.4% of total loans originated to 49.4%. Arguably, the rapid acceleration in personal loans is heavily driven by the rise in digital-first lending options, which have grown in popularity due to fintech challengers. Fintechs have earned their position in the market by leveraging data, advanced analytics and technology to disrupt existing financial models. Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions (FIs) have taken notice and are beginning to adopt some of the same methods and alternative credit approaches. With this evolution of technology fused with financial services, how are fintechs faring against traditional FIs? The below infographic uncovers industry trends and key metrics in unsecured personal installment loans: Still curious? Click here to download our latest eBook, which further uncovers emerging trends in personal loans through side-by-side comparisons of fintech and traditional FI market share, portfolio composition, customer profiles and more. Download now  

In my last blog, I discussed the basic concept of a maturation curve, as illustrated below: Exhibit 1 In Exhibit 1, we examine different vintages beginning with those loans originated by year during Q2 2002 through Q2 2008. The purpose of the vintage analysis is to identify those vintages that have a steeper slope towards delinquency, which is also known as delinquency maturation curve. The X-axis represents a timeline in months, from month of origination.  Furthermore, the Y-axis represents the 90+ delinquency rate expressed as a percentage of balances in the portfolio.  Those vintage analyses that have a steeper slope have reached a normalized level of delinquency sooner, and could in fact, have a trend line suggesting that they overshoot the expected delinquency rate for the portfolio based upon credit quality standards. So how can you use a maturation curve as a useful portfolio management tool? As a consultant, I spend a lot of time with clients trying to understand issues, such as why their charge-offs are higher than plan (budget).  I also investigate whether the reason for the excess credit costs are related to collections effectiveness, collections strategy, collections efficiency, credit quality or a poorly conceived budget. I recall one such engagement, where different functional teams within the client’s organization were pointing fingers at each other because their budget evaporated. One look at their maturation curves and I had the answers I needed. I noticed that two vintages per year had maturation curves that were pointed due north, with a much steeper curve than all other months of the year. Why would only two months or vintages of originations each year be so different than all other vintage analyses in terms of performance? I went back to my career experiences in banking, where I worked for a large regional bank that ran marketing solicitations several times yearly. Each of these programs was targeted to prospects that, in most instances, were out-of-market, or in other words, outside of the bank’s branch footprint. Bingo! I got it! The client was soliciting new customers out of his market, and was likely getting adverse selection. While he targeted the “right” customers – those with credit scores and credit attributes within an acceptable range, the best of that targeted group was not interested in accepting their offer, because they did not do business with my client, and would prefer to do business with an in-market player. Meanwhile, the lower grade prospects were accepting the offers, because it was a better deal than they could get in-market. The result was adverse selection...and what I was staring at was the "smoking gun" I’d been looking for with these two-a-year vintages (vintage analysis) that reached the moon in terms of delinquency. That’s the value of building a maturation curve analysis – to identify specific vintages that have characteristics that are more adverse than others.  I also use the information to target those adverse populations and track the performance of specific treatment strategies aimed at containing losses on those segments. You might use this to identify which originations vintages of your home equity portfolio are most likely to migrate to higher levels of delinquency; then use credit bureau attributes to identify specific borrowers for an early lifecycle treatment strategy. As that beer commercial says – “brilliant!”