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Q4 2020 Aftermarket Trends: Full-Sized Pickups Remain at Top, While Sweet Spot Grows

Published: March 31, 2021 by Guest Contributor

The automotive industry have been working to keep tabs on the changes that have occurred over the past year; changes that demonstrated we are in a totally different landscape than before. Understandably, there is a lot of focus on new registrations, loan amounts and finance trends. But there is also a need to dig into what vehicles are currently on the road, and what those trends mean for the aftermarket.

According to Experian’s Q4 2020 Market Trends Review, there was a total of 281.4 million vehicles on the road in Q4 2020, up from 279.6 million the previous year.

And while all vehicles on the road could potentially need service, the aftermarket has a special focus; vehicles that fall within the aftermarket “sweet spot,” those that are in the six-to-12-years old range and may need maintenance in the coming months or years.

In Q4 2020, 86.5 million vehicles, or just over 30% of the vehicles in operation, fell within the sweet spot. And for aftermarket professionals, that’s a significant number of vehicles that could require servicing. But in order to fully understand the opportunity, you need to know which vehicles are currently on the road. For example, full-sized pickups are the largest segment of vehicles in operation but the third largest segment of vehicles in the sweet spot (14.9%). Mid-range cars (23.9%) claim the top spot for sweet spot vehicles, followed by CUVs (21.5%) second, small cars (13.2%) fourth and SUVs (10.1%) fifth. Differentiating between the current market and the sweet spot is crucial for aftermarket businesses to have a clearer, and more accurate, idea of what future service and maintenance needs may be.

While there is opportunity in those vehicles presently within the sweet spot, it’s equally important for aftermarket professionals to prepare for the future. The next several years will bring even more vehicles into range. As it stands, 2016-2019 model year vehicles each have over 16 million vehicles poised to enter the sweet spot in the future, making up an average of 64 million pre-sweet spot vehicles.

COVID-19 deeply affected the automotive industry over the past year, however the industry has made an impressive recovery. We’re continuing to navigate a different environment than prior to the pandemic. Aftermarket businesses and dealer service centers can navigate this new landscape by leveraging data in order to better anticipate the needs of consumers, and drive business growth in the coming years.

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Without data, anticipating buyer behavior in the months ahead can be challenging. While some OEMs had record sales¹ this spring, it remains critical to identify who’s in the market—whether to purchase or service their vehicle. With tax refund season in the rearview mirror and summer promotions approaching, consumers may be weighing their next move. Some could have “one foot in the showroom door” while others are waiting to see which dealer delivers the most compelling offer. Meanwhile, 41% of drivers choosing to keep their vehicles longer² are likely focused on maintaining them. So how can you best position yourself?  Explore These 3 Strategic Moves to Navigate This Summer:  Firm up your Service Marketing Plan: With summer road trips on the horizon, your customers may be in the market for services like A/C repair, wheel alignment, tire rotation, engine cooling, oil changes, multi-point inspections, and more. Discover who’s most likely to need service in the next 30–60 days with Experian Automotive’s AutoAudiences. Understand Customers’ Communication Preference: To effectively target your audience, start by understanding how they would prefer to communicate. As Car Dealership Guy puts it, “The shift in consumer preferences is undeniable and generational.”³ Experian Automotive’s Product Management Director, Kirsten Von Busch echoes this, adding, “Understanding generational differences is crucial to developing effective marketing strategies that resonate with each group’s unique preferences”. Experian’s Automotive Consumer Insights support this approach with data-driven messaging and communication channel recommendations.  Focus on Growing Market Share with Mid-Year Auto Trends: Two purchase types that are trending in the beginning half of the year include Leasing⁴ and Trade-In. Whether you have EVs or AWD vehicles on your lot, consider (A)ll (W)eather (D)eals that can (1) Supersede those in your backyard as part of your Conquest strategy and (2) Build upon your “Why Buy” dealer loyalty.  Experian Marketing Engine powers automotive marketing by helping automotive marketers identify the right audience, uncover the most appropriate communication channels, develop messages that resonate and measure the effectiveness of their marketing activities. Timing is everything, so start Targeting and Conquesting in your Market today!  Sources:  http://www.autonews.com/retail/sales/an-april-us-sales-2025-0501/  https://news.dealershipguy.com/p/3-real-time-shifts-in-car-buying-behavior-post-tariff-announcements-2025-05-01  https://news.dealershipguy.com/p/dealers-are-saving-thousands-in-labor-in-fixed-ops-2025-05-30 https://www.experian.com/blogs/insights/auto-the-current-state-of-ev-financing-why-more-consumers-are-choosing-leasing/

Published: June 17, 2025 by Chanté O’Neill

In this episode of "The Chrisman Commentary" podcast, Ken Tromer and Ted Wentzel discuss how Experian Verify ensures price transparency.

Published: March 26, 2025 by Ted Wentzel

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the topic of conversation in the automotive industry, but we’re continuing to see another fuel type pick up speed. With consumer demand shifting and drivers exploring more fuel-efficient options, the automotive market is leaning back into hybrids. In fact, new retail hybrid registrations grew to 11.5% through Q3 2024, from 9.5% through Q3 2023, according to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2024. Meanwhile, EVs increased from 7.7% to 8.2% year-over-year and gasoline vehicles declined to 70.4% this year, from 72.7% last year. Despite EVs gaining notable attention over recent years, some consumers may be factoring in the benefits of opting for a hybrid, such as the convenience of driving a longer distance without facing challenges as charging stations remain limited. As more manufacturers adapt to consumer needs and roll out additional vehicles, data shows 9.1% of 2024 model year vehicles in operation were attributed to hybrids, while 6.2% of 2024 model years were EVs through Q3 2024. Having more models enter the market has shifted the hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market share, with the Toyota Camry making up 12.5% of the market share this quarter, a notable increase from 2.4% last year. On the other hand, the Jeep Wrangler 4xe went from having 4.5% of market share last year to 2.4% through Q3 2024. With many consumers continuing to have some concerns around EVs such as range anxiety and charging times, they’re seeking a more practical solution for their daily driving needs. The balance of fuel options provides more convenience—making hybrids an appealing choice for those wanting an EV alternative. It’s important for manufacturers to stay ahead of the competitive market as it’s constantly evolving. Leveraging the most current data can provide solutions that address both feasibility and consumer preference. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2024 presentation on demand.

Published: January 10, 2025 by John Howard

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