Financial institution profits, credit risk and loan pricing for 2008

by Guest Contributor 2 min read March 17, 2009

By: Tom Hannagan

Part 6

Peer Group 2 fee income
Non-interest income again, as a percent of average total assets, declined to .86 percent from .95 percent in 2007. For Peer Group 2 (PG2), fees have also been steadily declining relative to asset size, down from 1.04 percent of assets in 2005. A smaller, non-interest bearing deposit base with no other new and offsetting sources of fee income will lead to increased pressure on this metric.

Operating expenses
Operating expenses also put more pressure on earnings on these smaller banks. They increased from 2.79 percent to 2.83 percent of average assets. That’s four basis points on the negative. Historically, this metric has been flattering for this size bank and usually moves up or down from year-to-year. It was almost equal at 2.82 percent of assets in 2004.

As a result of the sizeable decline in margins, the continued decline in fee income and the slight increase in operating expenses PG2’s efficiency ratio lost ground from 59.52 percent in 2007 to only 64.72 percent in 2008. That means that every dollar in gross revenue cost them almost 65 cents in administrative expenses this year. This metric averaged 56 cents in 2005/2006. It’s amazing how close these numbers are for banks of very different size where you would expect clear economies of scale.

The total impact of margin performance, fee income and operating expenses, plus the huge increase in provision expense of 59 basis points leads us to a total decline in pre-tax operating income of .96 percent on total assets. That is a total decline from 1.58 percent pre-tax ROA in 2007 to .64 percent pre-tax ROA, a loss of 61 percent from the pre-tax performance in 2007. My same conclusion as above would hold regarding the pricing of risk into bank lending (although the smaller banks didn’t perform a badly as the larger in this regard).

Although all 490 banks are declining in all profit metrics, the smaller banks seem to have an edge in pricing loans, but not deposits. Although up dramatically in 2007, and even more in 2008 for both groups, the PG2 banks seem to be suffering fewer credit losses relative to their asset size than their larger brethren. Both groups have resulting huge profit declines, but the largest banks are under the most pressure through this period.

An interesting point, with higher loan yields and fewer apparent losses, is whether PG2 banks are somewhat better at risk-based pricing (for whatever reason) than the largest bank group. Results are results. The 2009 numbers aren’t expected to show a lot of improvement as the general economy continues to slow and credit and financial risk management issues continue. We’ll probably comment on 2009 as the quarterlies become available this year.

Related Posts

What Is Agentic Commerce? Why Trust Will Define the Next Era of AI-Powered Shopping

Learn what agentic commerce is, why AI agents are transforming digital commerce and how Agent Trust builds trusted AI interactions.

Published: July 14, 2026 by Laura Burrows
Ask the Expert: A closer look at financial inclusion with Corliss Hill and Dr. Vaneesha Dutra

Consumer visibility is changing Roughly 45 million Americans, or 1 in 5 consumers, are considered credit invisible or unscoreable.[1] They’re working, paying bills and participating in the economy, yet many are not fully visible during the lending process. That creates both a visibility challenge and a growth opportunity for lenders. In this Ask the Expert session, Corliss Hill, Senior Director, Inclusion and Belonging at Experian, joins Dr. Vaneesha Dutra, Endowed Professor of Finance at Morehouse College, to discuss how evolving consumer behaviors are reshaping conversations around financial inclusion and lending decisions. For lenders, visibility matters because confident decisions depend on reliable context and insight. Broader consumer signals can help institutions better understand repayment behaviors, financial stability and consumer capacity. “The benefit of banks using alternative data is that they capture a very significant and new consumer base. That's 20% of the population, 45 million Americans.”Dr. Vaneesha Dutra, Endowed Professor of Finance A more complete understanding of today’s consumers Today’s consumers often manage obligations across a wide range of payment types and financial channels, creating additional signals through cash flow activity, recurring payments and consumer-permissioned financial data. Rent, utilities, subscriptions and mobile phone payments can all provide meaningful insight into how consumers manage their financial lives. What’s changing isn’t the need for risk assessment. It’s the amount of consumer behavior lenders can now evaluate. For example, a consumer experiencing temporary financial disruption may fall behind on certain obligations while continuing to consistently pay rent, utilities and phone bills. Those recurring payment behaviors can provide important context into financial priorities and stability. “These are consumers that pay rent on time every month, pay utilities every month on time and meet many other financial obligations in a timely manner.”Dr. Vaneesha Dutra, Endowed Professor of Finance From visibility to more-informed decisioning Broader consumer insights may help lenders move from limited visibility to more informed decisioning. The conversation shifts when lenders move from asking: “Should we take a risk on this consumer?” to: “Do we have enough information to fully understand this consumer?” That broader context can help institutions: Strengthen risk assessment. Identify financially active consumers with strong repayment behaviors. Support more informed lending strategies. Alternative data isn’t about replacing established credit approaches. It’s about helping lenders build on trusted credit foundations with additional context and insight. Responsible lending starts with better context For lenders, the path forward is practical and actionable. As lenders evaluate broader consumer behaviors, three priorities become increasingly important: Modernize data strategies Incorporate broader consumer signals alongside existing credit data to create a more holistic view of repayment behavior and financial stability. Engage consumers earlier Earlier intervention may help lenders better support consumers before financial challenges become more severe. Create pathways to financial access Smaller lending opportunities can help consumers establish stronger financial profiles and demonstrate positive repayment behaviors over time. The institutions that lead will be the ones that can combine strong risk practices with a broader understanding of consumer behavior. Whitepaper: Bridging the credit divide: income, risk and inclusion in consumer finance Building on the themes discussed in this Ask the Expert session, Dr. Dutra explores how demographic shifts, evolving borrower behaviors and broader consumer visibility are reshaping lending strategies and what they mean for lenders seeking to balance growth, risk management and financial inclusion. Download whitepaper Explore alternative data with Experian Experian can help lenders combine broader consumer insights with trusted credit data to strengthen decisioning, improve risk assessment and support more-informed lending strategies. With solutions spanning identity, cash flow and advanced analytics, lenders can gain a more complete view of consumer behavior and expand access to credit with greater confidence. Learn more Watch episode 1 About our experts Corliss Hill Senior Director, Belonging Business Partner, Experian Corliss Hill is a collaborative leader well-versed in working with executive stakeholders, crossfunctional teams, external partners and community organizations to design and deliver initiatives and programs that create sustainable impact. With over 25 years of extensive experience in multicultural marketing, communications, PR and inclusion and belonging initiatives, she is dedicated to advancing equitable access to financial. Her mission is to drive impactful marketing initiatives that foster meaningful change and address systemic barriers to inclusion and the communities they serve.Hill has been a part of the Experian family since 2021, and resides in Atlanta with her daughter who is a rising 11-year-old entrepreneur. Vaneesha Dutra, Ph.D. Endowed Professor of Finance and Associate Dean, Morehouse College Vaneesha Dutra, Ph.D., serves as Associate Dean in the Division of Business and Economics. With more than 20 years of experience spanning higher education, banking and real estate, Dr. Dutra’s work focuses on the racial and gender wealth gap, financial literacy and financial decision-making. She is an active researcher and consultant whose work has earned numerous grants and fellowships, including serving as the inaugural Tracy A. Pruitt Visiting Research Faculty Fellow at the Wharton School of Business. Dr. Dutra has also been named a Research Faculty Fellow for both the Center for Black Entrepreneurship and the PNC Bank Center for Entrepreneurship. [1] Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Expanding access to credit.

Published: July 13, 2026 by Julie.JLee@experian.com
The American Fintech Council on Responsible Innovation

Ian P. Moloney of the American Fintech Council discusses responsible fintech innovation and Experian’s role in expanding credit access.

Published: July 8, 2026 by Scarlet.Nickel@experian.com