Credit Lending

Inactive credit card accounts are defined as credit cards that were approved, opened and never used by account holders. They also include credit card accounts that were approved, opened, utilized by account holders but don’t have a balance for the last six to 12 months. Inactive credit card accounts pose several challenges and opportunities to lenders. A review of inactivity rates of credit card portfolios of credit unions across the United States as of March 2018 shows that inactive accounts comprise approximately 11 percent of total accounts on the books. The average credit line of inactive accounts is $8,700. (Data were extracted from Experian’s File One™ database using a sample of credit card accounts with credit unions across the United States as of March 2018. Sample size is approximately 600,000 credit card accounts.) Why do credit card accounts become inactive? One potential reason for inactivity is the convenience of securing a credit card during demand deposit account (“DDA”) opening processes. Lenders today may prequalify or preselect a customer quickly and efficiently for a credit card while a customer’s request to open a checking account or deposit account is being processed. Lenders benefit from this choreographed process with no to very minimal additional effort and time requested from the customer. The removal or significant decrease in friction costs — such as requiring additional customer information that previously would have deterred a customer from proceeding with the credit card application — gave lenders the advantage of processing more applications. (Schruder, Kyle. Feb. 26, 2018. The Top 5 Behavioural Economics Principles for Designers — Bridgeable blog. https://uxplanet.org/the-top-5-behavioural-economics-principles-for-designers-ea22a16a4020.)  Because of this convenience, some customers say yes to obtaining a credit card even though they had no intention of securing one in the first place. In behavioral economics, this may be identified as the “yeah, whatever” heuristic. People take the option with the least effort or the path of least resistance. (Thaler, Richard H. and Cass R. Sunstein. 2009. Nudge Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New York: Penguin Books. Pages 35, 85.) With low commitment to the credit card, customers who are approved will receive the new plastic and forget about it. An active credit card user may become inactive because the features, benefits and rewards are no longer relevant for their current financial needs. For example, a merchandise purchase or balance transfer promotion has expired and was paid off. Rewards are less attractive compared to other credit card offers in the marketplace. Lack of lender engagement activities may also lead to inactivity. For example, there are no marketing campaigns with promotions or special rewards offers. Revolving accounts with very low credit lines aren’t given credit line increases even though credit risk is acceptable, and accounts generate good interest income. The challenges to lenders with a large segment of inactive accounts include the direct cost of contingent liability. A percentage of unused credit lines is classified as contingent liability in the balance sheet. If contingent liability is reduced, then funds may be used to invest in more productive activities. In the absence of analytics and deep understanding of various customer behaviors in the portfolio, it can become costly for a lender when inactive accounts are included in all kinds of marketing campaigns. Marketing budgets are limited and ought to be used wisely to target segments with high expected returns and to achieve specific and well-defined objectives. Inactive accounts may also come with credit risk challenges. Some customers designate certain credit cards as emergency credit cards. That is, these cards will be used only in emergency situations where payment is needed immediately, and no other funds can be easily accessed at such time. Some situations are significantly more serious and may be accompanied by deep financial stress. During these times, inactive accounts are utilized and may result in collections or charge-offs. How can lenders handle the challenges of inactive accounts? An inactive account strategy that uses data and analytics is very helpful and prudent. Determine which accounts are never active or were inactive within the last 12 months. Identify which accounts pose elevated credit risk. There are various interventions that can be designed to improve card activation, which may include marketing campaigns and account management strategies including credit line options. If inactive accounts were included in marketing campaigns or account management strategies, then track the performance. These performance reports will provide the rationale and guidelines for further action, which may include account closure. Evaluate the multiple relationships of the customer with the lender and estimated cardmember value. Survey the inactive accounts and obtain feedback regarding the reasons for lack of card usage. Those insights will help identify areas for improvement and drive new initiatives. We have seen that inactive accounts aren’t a trivial component of a credit card portfolio. There are real costs and risks associated with inactive accounts. They also provide opportunities for improving card features and benefits and ways to continue engaging existing cardmembers.

With 2020 firmly behind us and multiple COVID-19 vaccines being dispersed across the globe, many of us are entering 2021 with a bit of, dare we say it, optimism. But with consumer spending and consumer confidence dipping at the end of the year, along with an inversely proportional spike in coronavirus cases, it’s apparent there’s still some uncertainty to come. This leaves businesses and consumers alike, along with fintechs and their peer financial institutions, wondering when the world’s largest economy will truly rebound.   But based on the most recent numbers available from Experian, fintechs have many reasons to be bullish. In this unprecedented year, marked by a global pandemic and a number of economic and personal challenges for both businesses and consumers, Americans are maintaining healthy credit profiles and responsible spending habits. While growth expectedly slowed towards the end of the year, Q4 of 2020 saw solid job gains in the US labor market, with 883,000 jobs added through November and the US unemployment rate falling to 6.7%. Promisingly, one of the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic, the leisure and hospitality industry added back the most jobs of all sectors in October: 271,000. Additionally, US home sales hit a 14-year high fueled by record low mortgage rates. And finally, consumer sentiment rose to the highest level (81.4%) since March 2020. Not only are these promising signs of continued recovery, they illustrate there are ample market opportunities now for fintechs and other financial institutions.   “It’s been encouraging to see many of our fintech partners getting back to their pre-COVID marketing levels,” said Experian Account Executive for Fintech Neil Conway. “Perhaps more promising, these fintechs are telling me that not only are response rates up but so is the credit quality of those applicants,” he said.  More plainly, if your company isn’t in the market now, you’re missing out. Here are the four steps fintechs should take to reenter the lending marketing intelligently, while mitigating as much risk as possible.   Re-do Your Portfolio Review Periodic portfolio reviews are standard practice for financial institutions. But the health crisis has posted unique challenges that necessitate increased focus on the health and performance of your credit portfolio. If you haven’t done so already, doing an analysis of your current lending portfolio is imperative to ensure you are minimizing risk and maximizing profitability. It’s important to understand if your portfolio is overexposed to customers in a particularly hard-hit industry, i.e. entertainment, or bars and restaurants. At the account level there may be opportunities to reevaluate customers based on a different risk appetite or credit criteria and a portfolio review will help identify which of your customers could benefit from second chance opportunities they may not have otherwise been able to receive. Retool Your Data, Analytics and Models As the pandemic has raged on, fintechs have realized many of the traditional data inputs that informed credit models and underwriting may not be giving the complete picture of a consumer. Essentially, a 720 in June 2020 may not mean the same as it does today and forbearance periods have made payment history and delinquency less predictive of future ability to pay. To stay competitive, fintechs must make sure they have access to the freshest, most predictive data. This means adding alternative data and attributes to your data-driven decisioning strategies as much as possible. Alternative data, like income and employment data, works to enhance your ability to see a consumer’s entire credit portfolio, which gives lenders the confidence to continue to lend – as well as the ability to track and monitor a consumer’s historical performance (which is a good indicator of whether or not a consumer has both the intention and ability to repay a loan). Re-Model Your Lending Criteria  One of the many things the global health crisis has affirmed is the ongoing need for the freshest, most predictable data inputs. But even with the right data, analytics can still be tedious, prolonging deployment when time is of the essence. Traditional models are too slow to develop and deploy, and they underperform during sudden economic upheavals. To stay ahead in times recovery or growth, fintechs need high-quality analytics models, running on large and varied data sets that they can deploy quickly and decisively. Unlike many banks and traditional financial institutions, fintechs are positioned to nimbly take advantage of market opportunities. Once your models are performing well, they should be deployed into the market to actualize on credit-worthy current and future borrowers. Advertising/Prescreening for Intentional Acquisition As fintechs look to re-enter the market or ramp up their prescreen volumes to pre-COVID levels, it’s imperative to reach the right prospects, with the right offer, based on where and how they’re browsing. More consumers than ever are relying on their phones for browsing and mobile banking, but aligning messaging and offers across devices and platforms is still important. Here’s where data-driven advertising becomes imperative to create a more relevant experience for consumers, while protecting privacy.   As 2021 rolls forward, there will be ample chance for fintechs to capitalize on new market opportunities. Through up-to-date analysis of your portfolio, ensuring you have the freshest, predictive data, adjusting your lending criteria and tweaking your approach to advertising and prescreen, you can be ready for the opportunities brought on by the economic recovery. How is your fintech gearing up to re-enter the market? Learn more

Credit cards are the most widely available credit products offered to millions of consumers today. For many consumers, owning a credit card is a relatively simple step toward establishing credit history and obtaining access to other lending products later in life. For credit unions, offering a credit card to members expands and enriches the credit relationship. In today’s environment, some credit unions don’t view credit cards as an integral part of their member service. I propose that the benefits of credit cards in a credit union portfolio are impactful, meaningful and fully align to member outreach and community service. A high-level review of risk-adjusted yields across three of the most common retail products offered by credit unions show that credit cards can be very profitable. The average APR of credit cards as of Q3 2020 is just slightly below personal loans. While charge-offs as a percentage of balances are more than double of personal loans, the estimated risk-adjusted yield is still elevated and is 1.8 times higher than auto loan and leases. See Table 1. Table 1. Estimated average risk-adjusted yield for auto loan and lease, personal loan, and credit card for credit unions Auto loan and lease Personal loan Credit card Average APR 5.21% 12.05% 11.26% Charge-offs as % of balances (annualized) 0.28% 0.89% 1.98% Risk-adjusted yield 4.93% 11.16% 9.28% Notes: Average APR of auto loans and leases, personal loans, and charge-off information as of Q3 2020 was extracted from Experian-Oliver Wyman IntelliViewSM Market Intelligence Reports. IntelliView Market Intelligence Reports, Dec. 22, 2020, experian.com/decision-analytics/market-intelligence/intelliview. Average APR of credit card as of Q3 2020 was extracted from National Credit Union Administration website. Credit Union and Bank Rates 2020 Q3, Dec. 22, 2020, https://www.ncua.gov/analysis/cuso-economic-data/credit-union-bank-rates/credit-union-and-bank-rates-2020-q3. Estimated risk-adjusted yield is calculated as the difference between average APR and charge-offs. A profitable retail product allows a credit union to share those profits back with members consistent with its mission of promoting and supporting the financial health and well-being of its members. Credit cards provide diversification of income streams. Income diversification provides a level of stability across cyclical economic conditions when some types of credit exposures may perform poorly, while others may be more stable. When combined with sound and effective risk governance, credit diversification allows lenders to mitigate levels of concentration risks in their aggregate portfolio. Offering credit cards to members is one avenue to grow loan volume and achieve scale that’s sufficiently manageable for credit unions. Scale is particularly important today as it’s needed to fund technology investments. The pandemic accelerated the massive movement toward digital engagement, and scale makes technology investments more cost-effective.  When lenders become more productive and efficient, they further lower the cost of credit products to members. (Stovall, Nathan. Dec. 14, 2020. Desire to compete with megabanks driving more U.S. regional bank M&A — KBW CE blog. https://platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#news/.) The barriers to offering credit cards have moderately declined. Technology partners, payment processors and specialized industry companies are available in the marketplace. The biggest challenge for credit unions and lenders is credit risk management. To be profitable and to stay relevant, credit cards require a relatively sophisticated risk management framework of underwriting criteria, pricing, credit line management, operations and marketing. Industry and specialized support for launching and managing credit cards is widely available and accessible. Analytics play an essential role in managing credit cards. With an average active life of approximately five years, credit card portfolios need regular and periodic performance reviews to manage inherent risk and to identify opportunities for growth and profitability. Account management for credit cards is equally as important as underwriting. Credit line management, authorization, activation and retention have significant impact to the performance of existing accounts. Continuous engagement with members is critical and has taken on a new meaning lately. Credit cards provide an opportunity to engage members, to grow lending relationships and to support financial well-being. Marketing and meaningful card offers drive card usage and relevance. They’re critical components in customer communication and service. The benefits of credit cards contribute positively to a credit union portfolio. With sound and effective risk management practices, credit cards are profitable, help diversify income streams, grow loan volume and support member credit needs.

Recently, I shared articles about the problems surrounding third-party and first-party fraud. Now I’d like to explore a hybrid type – synthetic identity fraud – and how it can be the hardest type of fraud to detect. What is synthetic identity fraud? Synthetic identity fraud occurs when a criminal creates a new identity by mixing real and fictitious information. This may include blending real names, addresses, and Social Security numbers with fabricated information to create a single identity.   Once created, fraudsters will use their synthetic identities to apply for credit. They employ a well-researched process to accumulate access to credit. These criminals often know which lenders have more liberal identity verification policies that will forgive data discrepancies and extend credit to people who appear to be new or emerging consumers. With each account that they add, the synthetic identity builds more credibility.   Eventually, the synthetic identity will “bust out,” or max out all available credit before disappearing. Because there is no single person whose identity was stolen or misused there’s no one to track down when this happens, leaving businesses to deal with the fall out.   More confounding for the lenders involved is that each of them sees the same scam through a different lens. For some, these were longer-term reliable customers who went bad. For others, the same borrower was brand new and never made a payment. Synthetic identities don't appear consistently as a new account problem or a portfolio problem or correlate to thick- or thin-filed identities, further complicating the issue.   How does synthetic identity fraud impact me?   As mentioned, when synthetic identities bust out, businesses are stuck footing the bill.   Annual SIF (synthetic identity fraud) charge-offs in the United States alone could be as high as $11 billion. – Steven D’Alfonso, research director, IDC Financial Insights1   Unlike first- and third-party fraud, which deal with true identities and can be tracked back to a single person (or the criminal impersonating them), synthetic identities aren’t linked to an individual. This means that the tools used to identify those types of fraud won’t work on synthetics because there’s no victim to contact (as with third-party fraud), or real customer to contact in order to collect or pursue other remedies.   Solving the synthetic identity fraud problem   Preventing and detecting synthetic identities requires a multi-level solution that includes robust checkpoints throughout the customer lifecycle.   During the application process, lenders must look beyond the credit report. By looking past the individual identity and analyzing its connections and relationships to other individuals and characteristics, lenders can better detect anomalies to pinpoint false identities.   Consistent portfolio review is also necessary. This is best done using a risk management system that continuously monitors for all types of fraudulent activities across multiple use cases and channels. A layered approach can help prevent and detect fraud while still optimizing the customer experience.   With the right tools, data, and analytics, fraud prevention can teach you more about your customers, improving your relationships with them and creating opportunities for growth while minimizing fraud losses.   To wrap up this series, I’ll explore account takeover fraud and how the correct strategy can help you manage all four types of fraud while still optimizing the customer experience. To learn more about the impact of synthetic identities, download our “Preventing Synthetic Identity Fraud” white paper and call us to learn more about innovative solutions you can use to detect and prevent fraud.   Contact us Download whitepaper   1Synthetic Identity Fraud Update: Effects of COVID-19 and a Potential Cure from Experian, IDC Financial Insights, July 2020

2020 is finally over – been there, done that. And while it seems safe to say most everyone is all too eager to kick off a new calendar year, the reality is we’re still reeling – and will continue to reel – through the economic impacts of the COVID-19 global pandemic. As we inch closer to the one year marker of when many businesses were sent home – across all industries, including those tech-inclined and those less so – the understatement of the year is that the world has since changed as have consumer communication preferences, how businesses and customers interact, tweaked definitions of privacy, and new (heightened) expectations of evolving a positive customer experience with minimal friction and maximum security. While last year’s predictions of entering a new set of Roaring 20’s may not have panned out the way we had initially imagined, many of the trends thought to evolve over the last 365 days did. As we all look toward a post-pandemic world, here are six top trends to keep tabs on throughout 2021. 1. Data Data as a commodity and as a business differentiating factor has reached an all-time high. It’s doing more across the entire customer lifecycle and can elevate businesses to best prep for growth, especially as consumers begin to look for more financial products (whether looking for financial assistance as the CARES Act accommodation period ends, or to take advantage of the booming mortgage industry, etc.). Data can also give more insights into consumers than ever before. Far beyond just credit scores and financial data, today’s data sets can reveal consumers’ lifestyle preferences, their preferred communication channels, their rental histories, and so much more. With alternative credit data and non-traditional data (including consumer-permissioned data), businesses can get a holistic picture of their customers’ payment behaviors. That streaming media service monthly payment may seem minimal, but now could increase your credit score through Experian Boost. Experian is still making big strides in all efforts to use data for good. As of December 31, 2020, Experian Boost has “boosted” Americans’ credit scores nearly 47 million points. Additionally, throughout 2020, Experian worked with financial institutions and credit furnishers to continue to put consumers first and serve as the consumer’s bureau. Coming up in 2021? Using data for differentiation, which can ultimately drive business growth. From instant prescreens to identifying your best customers (and offering them cross-sell and upsell opportunities to increase retention and customer loyalty) to helping customers that may be on the brink of financial distress and connecting them with management solutions to help them get back on their feet, data can help businesses – and their customers – get there. 2. Fraud and Friction (And the Reduction of Both) With the pandemic, fraud saw increases across the board. Here are just some quick stats: 200% increase in first-time online banking usage immediately following shelter-in-place orders (Aite Group, “Workplace Distancing: Adapting Fraud and AML Operations to COVID-19,” April 2020) 652% year-over-year increase in records found on the dark web (Experian CyberAgent technology) 50% increase in human farming – real people being hired for purposes of fraud – month-over-month in March 2020 (Arkose Labs) And, unsurprisingly, consumer and business sentiments toward fraud are also evolving with these increasing trends. For example, according to Experian’s North America Trends Report, half of consumers continue to site security as the most important factor of their online experience. Additionally, there’s been an increase in the percentage of businesses who have recently increased or are planning to increase fraud budget from 76% in 2019 to 89% as of Sept. 2020. More complex phishing schemes and increased fraudster activity is due in part to numerous industries having to shift to online processes and business transactions overnight. Adoption for mobile wallets has jumped 11% since July 2020, according to the 2020 Global Insights Report. Systems and technology that were not ready or not armed with the necessary infrastructure left critical access points open that could be exploited by fraudsters. Fraud exists across the customer lifecycle, at every access point. And while fraud is complex, with Experian as your partner, solving it isn’t. Innovative technology enables businesses to prevent fraud by identifying credible customers and applying the correct treatment to the riskiest consumer and business accounts. We can help you develop a layered risk management strategy so you can focus resources on growing and protecting your customer relationships. 3. A New Administration – Changing of the Guards on the Regulatory Front With the new year enters the inauguration of a new president and administration. Though there is still much to be determined, certain areas are drawing a lot of attention with this changing of the guards. The highlights? The CFPB. Priorities and leadership could change. With COVID-19 top of mind, it is likely there will be aggressive agendas put forth to help protect the millions of consumers who have suffered economic distress and harm as a result of the pandemic. Data Portability. With an increased consumer appetite to port their data, questions and concerns around data security – and how to verify for a third party asking for the data – are also on the rise. There are a number of issues facing financial institutions around data portability, one of the largest being defining the line between consumer account information and proprietary data. All things privacy – state vs. national bills. The debate continues on how to move forward (whether privacy legislation will be handled by the states or at the national level), but for now it seems there is more progress at the state level. California was the first state to push through state-level privacy legislation in the form of the California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018. Twenty-four states are considering legislation that would require consent before collecting or disclosing personal information with third parties. 4. Analytics + Digitalization – Smarter, Better, Faster COVID-19 accelerated digital transformation for many. Some companies were ready, having already started making the headway in years prior, while others struggled – and some continue to struggle. The pandemic – and its corresponding recovery – is reason now, more than ever, to get some of your digital transformation priorities checked off of your list. Your customers demand it and your business needs it. Tackling analytics and digitalization not only brings your business up to speed, but improves your decisioning, enhances your offerings, and enables better platforms and data usage. In addition to digitalization, artificial intelligence for credit decisioning and personalized banking can also be expected to be a top trend, especially AI that is ethical and explainable, as will the increasing adoption and implementation of cloud computing. As consumer experience continues to reign supreme, any and all technology to enhance and improve that experience – think chatbots and virtual assistants – will also likely increase in presence. 5. Verification & Identity Identity has been a trending topic over the last few years, brought on by increasingly digital lifestyles and the intersection of personalization, frictionless transactions and adequate security. Identity verification and verification of other information such as income, employment and the like are increasingly needed in a today’s pandemic and tomorrow’s post-pandemic world. Leveraged across the lifecycle and during critical customer interactions, the need is especially heightened for insights, data accuracy, and diversification of data sets – to name a few. And while it was already established that identity verification is not just for marketing services, there are now even greater needs for financial institutions to be able to confidently know that their customers are who they say they are. Some areas to keep your eye on in 2021? Identity, income, assets and employment. 6. Redefining the Modern Mortgage As has been a common trend, spurred by the disruption caused by COVID-19, the mortgage industry is one of the many to have a magnifying glass brought to its areas for improvement. Some of those areas include operational efficiency, digital adoption and transparency. In line with the better and faster needs that lenders are continually trying to pace with, the need for speed is hitting mortgage originations, with an ideal situation outlined as closing in 30 days or less. Creating operational efficiencies through faster, fresher data can be the key for lenders to more accurately assess a borrower’s ability to pay upfront. Additionally, now, as most mortgage lenders are breaking previous origination records by a landslide (thanks pandemic), there’s new focus on other performance indicators. With such impetus, the modern mortgage is constantly evolving, incorporating customer-centric facets including a seamless digital process, providing meaningful customer experiences and leveraging the latest and greatest technology to better future-proof the industry through scalable technology, while aiming to reduce costs. For all your needs in 2021 and beyond, Experian has you covered. Learn More

No two customers are the same. That’s why it’s important to go beyond the traditional credit score for a closer look at each consumer’s individual circumstance and create personalized response plans. Learn more about some of the many different customers you’ll encounter and download our guide to get recommendations for every stage of the lifecycle. Get the Guide

It’s clear that the digital transformation we experienced this year is here to stay. While there are many positives associated with this transformation – innovation, new ways to work, and greater online connectedness – it’s important that we review the risks associated with these trends as well.   In late 2019 and throughout 2020, Experian surveyed consumers and businesses. We asked about online habits, expectations for information security and plans for future spending. Unsurprisingly, about half of consumers think they’ll continue to spend more online in the coming year. Those same consumers now have a higher expectation for their online experience than before the onset of COVID-19.   Hand-in-hand with the online activity trends come increased risks associated with identity theft and fraud as criminals find new chances to steal information. In response to both of these trends, businesses and consumers want a balance between security and convenience.   Our latest trends report dives into the new opportunities 2020 has created for fraud, and the opportunities to prevent identity theft or manipulation and the associated losses while building stronger relationships.   Download the full North America Trends Report for a look into North American trends over the last year and to learn how fraud prevention and positive customer relationships are actually two sides of the same coin. North America Trends Report

Financial services companies have long struggled to make inclusive decisions for small businesses and for low- and moderate-income consumers. One key reason: to make accurate predictions of the financial risks associated with those customers’ accounts requires lenders to rely on a wider variety of data than a credit score alone. To accurately assess risk, expanded Fair Credit Reporting Act regulated data is helpful – including rental data, trended data, enhanced public records, alternative financial services data and more. This expanded FCRA data is one key to financial inclusion. Without that data, lenders risk rejecting potentially profitable customers, including so-called credit invisibles and thin file consumers. In fact, The Federal Reserve, along with four important financial services regulators, highlighted the consumer benefits of alternative data in their December 2019 interagency statement. That statement also highlighted the increased importance of managing compliance when firms use alternative data in credit underwriting. With hundreds of data sources available to help with important tasks such as verifying identity, checking credit, and assessing the value of automotive and real-estate collateral, why have some lenders been slow to use the most appropriate data attributes when making credit decisions? One reason is a matter of IT Architecture; another is priorities. Changing a business process to take advantage of new data requirements can be prohibitively lengthy and costly – ­in terms of both analytical and IT resources. This is especially true for older systems—which were seldom adapted to use Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) supporting modern data structures such as JSON. Furthermore, data access to older systems can require specific types of system connectivity such as VPNs or leased lines. Latency is important in this type of application: some of these tasks have to be done instantly in a digital-first or digital-only lending environment. So is time to market: lenders deploying analytics processes cannot wait for overtaxed IT teams to complete lengthy projects. Lenders’ analytics and IT teams have long known they need to be more agile and efficient, faster to market, and increasingly secure. Their answer, largely, has been a slow but steady migration of their systems to the cloud. A 2019 McKinsey survey revealed that CIOs were modernizing their infrastructures primarily to achieve four goals: agility and time to market, quality and reliability, cost, and security. There are other benefits as well. But if the business case for a cloud strategy was somewhat clear to IT and analytics leaders, it became crystal clear to the rest of the business in 2020. As companies shifted to at-home work using cloud-based collaboration tools, especially videoconferencing services, most companies conquered what was perhaps the final barrier to entry—the fear that the issues of data privacy and security were somehow more insurmountable with virtual machines, containers, and microservices than with on-premise infrastructure. Last quarter, the leading cloud providers ­Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud Platform, and Microsoft Azure ­reported incredible annual revenue growth: 29%, 45%, and 48% respectively. COVID-19 has proven to be the catalyst that greatly sped up the transition to cloud technologies. The jump to the cloud means that lenders are suddenly more capable than ever at making analytically sound – and therefore more financially inclusive ­decisions. The key to analytical decision-making is to use the right data and to make the most appropriate calculations (called attributes) as part of a business strategy or a mathematical model. With Experian programs such as Attribute Toolbox now available in the cloud, calculating those all-important attributes is as simple for the IT department as coding an API call. Lenders will soon be able just as easily to retrieve and process raw data from over 100 data sources, to recognize their native formats and to extract the desired information quickly enough for real-time and batch decisioning. The pandemic has brought economic distress to millions of Americans—it is unlike anything in our lifetimes. The growth of cloud computing promises to enable these consumers to obtain additional products as well as more favorable pricing and terms. It’s ironic that COVID has accelerated the adoption of the very technologies that will expand access to credit for many people who cannot currently access it from mainstream financial firms. To learn more about our Attribute Toolbox, click here. Learn More

The shift created by the COVID-19 pandemic is still being realized. One thing that we know for sure is that North American consumers’ expectations continue to rise, with a focus on online security and their digital experience.   In mid-September of this year, Experian surveyed 3,000 consumers and 900 businesses worldwide—with 300 consumers and 90 businesses in the U.S.—to explore the shifts in consumer behavior and business strategy pre- and post-COVID-19.   More than half of consumers surveyed continue to expect more security steps when online, including more visible security measures in place on websites and more knowledge about how their data is being protected and stored. However, those same consumers aren’t willing to wait more than 60 seconds to complete an online transaction making it more important than ever to align your security and experience strategies.   While U.S. consumers are optimistic about the economy’s recovery, they are still dealing with financial challenges and their behaviors have changed. Future business plans should take into account consumers’:   High expectations of their online experience Increases in online spending Difficulty paying bills Reduction in discretionary spending   Moving forward, businesses are focusing on use of AI, online security, and digital engagement. They are emphasizing revenue generation while looking into the future of online security. Nearly 70% of businesses also plan to increase their fraud management budgets in the next 6 months.   Download the full North America Insights Report to get all of the insights into North American business and consumer needs and priorities and keep visiting the Insights blog in the coming weeks for a look at how trends have changed from early in the pandemic. North America Insights Report Global Insights Report

In what has been an unprecedented year, marked by a global pandemic and a number of economic and personal challenges for both businesses and consumers, Americans are maintaining healthy credit profiles during the COVID-19 pandemic. Experian released the 11th annual State of Credit report, which provides a comprehensive look at the credit performance of consumers across America by highlighting consumer credit scores and borrowing behaviors. This year’s report provided an extended view into how consumers are managing and repaying their debts; showing most Americans are practicing responsible credit management by reducing utilization rates, credit card balances and late payments. Even in light of the pandemic, data on American consumers across all generations shows responsible credit management including reduced utilization rates, credit card balances and late payments. “While it’s difficult to predict when the economy will return to pre-pandemic levels, we are seeing promising signs of responsible credit management, especially among younger consumers,” said Alex Lintner, group president Experian Consumer Information Services. Highlights of Experian’s State of Credit report: 2020 State of Credit Report 2019 2020 Average VantageScore® credit score [1,2] 682 688 Average number of credit cards 3.07 3.0 Average credit card balance $6,629 $5,897 Average revolving utilization rate 30% 26% Average number of retail credit cards 2.51 2.42 Average retail credit card balance $1,942 $2,044 Average nonmortgage debt [3] $25,386 $25,483 Average mortgage debt $213,599 $215,655 Average 30 - 59 days past due delinquency rates 3.9% 2.4% Average 60 - 89 days past due delinquency rates 1.9% 1.3% Average 90 - 180 days past due delinquency rates 6.8% 3.8%   Though not the same, some consumers are experiencing a second economic downturn. The economic fallout stemming from COVID-19 coming after the Great Recession of 2009, which took place in the not too distant past. Silent, Boomer, Gen X and Gen Z Americans are managing responsible credit utilization rates and holding credit cards below the recommended maximum. Are the older generations more credit responsible? Average VantageScore® credit score follows rank order from oldest to youngest – though contributed to by length of time possessing credit, number of lines of credit, and other factors that drive credit score – with the Silent Generation having the highest score (729), then Boomers (716), followed by Gen X (676), Gen Y (658) and Gen Z (654). Gen X consumers have the highest average credit card balance at $7,718 and utilization at 32%, while Gen Z has the lowest average credit card balance at $2,197 and the Silent Generation has the lowest utilization at 13%. Year over year data shows positive results driven by younger borrowers. While average utilization rates dropped for every generation, the most significant decreases were seen in Gen Z borrowers who saw a 6 percent reduction in their use of available credit, followed by Millennials who saw a 5% decrease year-over-year.  While Gen Z and Gen Y are carrying more credit cards than they were in 2020, their credit card balances decreased year-over-year. These factors fueled a 13-point increase in average credit scores for Gen Z and an 11-point increase for Millennials. When spliced by state, the data Minnesota had the highest credit score, while Mississippi had the lowest credit score. While the future is still uncertain, perhaps consumers can find comfort in knowing there is much they can do to improve their financial health – including their credit scores – and that there are numerous resources for them to access during these unprecedented times. “As the consumer’s bureau, we are committed to informing, guiding, and protecting consumers. Educating Americans about the factors included in their credit profile and how to manage these responsibly is of critical importance, especially on the road to economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Lintner. In an effort to encourage consumers to regularly monitor and understand the information in their credit reports, Experian joined forces with the other U.S. credit reporting agencies, to offer free weekly credit reports to all Americans through April 2021 via AnnualCreditReport.com.  In addition to the free weekly credit report at AnnualCreditReport.com, Experian also offers consumers free access to their credit report and ongoing credit monitoring at Experian.com. Additional credit education resources and tools Experian’s #CreditChat: Hosted by @Experian on Twitter with financial experts every Wednesday at 3 p.m. Eastern time The Ask Experian blog: Find answers to common questions, advice and education about credit Experian Boost: Add positive telecom and utility payments to your Experian credit report for an opportunity to improve your credit scores experian.com/consumer-education-content/ experian.com/coronavirus   1VantageScore® is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC. 2VantageScore® credit score range is 300 to 850.

The CU Times recently reported on a nationwide synthetic identity fraud ring impacting several major credit unions and banks. Investigators for the Federal and New York governments charged 13 people and three businesses in connection to the nationwide scheme. The members of the crime ring were able to fraudulently obtain more than $1 million in loans and credit cards from 10 credit unions and nine banks. Synthetic Identity Fraud Can’t Be Ignored Fraud was on an upward trend before the pandemic and does not show signs of slowing. Opportunistic criminals have taken advantage of the shift to digital interactions, loosening of some controls in online transactions, and the desire of financial institutions to maintain their portfolios – seeking new ways to perpetrate fraud. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many financial institutions shifted their attention from existing plans for the year. In some cases they deprioritized plans to review and revise their fraud prevention strategy. Over the last several months, the focus swung to moving processes online, maintaining portfolios, easing customer friction, and dealing with IT resource constraints. While these shifts made sense due to rapidly changing conditions, they may have created a more enticing environment for fraudsters. This recent synthetic identity fraud ring was in place long before COVID-19. That said, it still highlights the need to have a prevention and detection plan in place. Financial institutions want to maintain their portfolios and their customer or member experience. However, they can’t afford to table fraud plans in the meantime. “72% of FI executives surveyed believe synthetic identity fraud to be more challenging than identity theft. This is due to the fact that it is harder to detect—either crime rings nurture accounts for months or years before busting out with six-figure losses, or they are misconstrued as credit losses, and valuable agent time is spent trying to collect from someone who doesn’t exist,” says Julie Conroy, Research Director at Aite Group. Prevention and Detection Putting the fraud strategy discussion on hold—even in the short term—could open up a financial institution to potential risk at time when cost control and portfolio maintenance are watch words. Canny fraudsters are on the lookout for financial institutions with fewer protections. Waiting to implement or update a fraud strategy could open a business up to increased fraud losses. Now is the time to review your synthetic identity fraud prevention and detection strategies, and Experian can help. Our innovative new tool in the fight against synthetic identity fraud helps financial institutions stop fraudsters at the door. Learn more  

As industry experts are still unsure when the economy will fully recover, re-entry into marketing preapproved credit offers seems like a far-off proposal. However, several of the top credit card issuers are already mailing prescreen offers, with many other lenders following suit. When the time comes for organizations to resume, or even expand this type of targeting, odds are that the marketing budget will be tighter than in the past. To make the most of the limited available marketing spend, lenders will need to be more prescriptive with their selection process to increase response rates on fewer delivered offers. Choosing the best candidates to receive these offers, from a credit risk perspective, will be critical. With delinquencies being suppressed due to CARES Act reporting guidelines, identifying consumers with the ability to repay will require additional assessment of recent credit behavior metrics, such as actual payment amounts and balance migration. Along with the presence of explicit indicators of accommodated trades (trades affected by natural disaster, trades with a balance but no scheduled payment amount) on a prospect’s credit file, their recent trends in payments and balance shifts can be integral in determining whether a prospect has been adversely impacted by today’s economic environment. Once risk criteria have been developed using a mix of bureau scores (like the VantageScore® credit score), traditional credit attributes and trended attributes measuring recent activity, additional targeting will be critical for selecting a population that’s most likely to open the relevant trade type. For credit cards and personal installment loans, response performance can be greatly improved by aligning product offers with prospects based on their propensity to revolve, pay in full each month or consolidate balances. Additionally, the process to select final prospects should integrate a propensity to open/respond assessment for the specific offering. While many lenders have custom models developed on previous internal response performance, off-the-shelf propensity to open models are also available to provide an assessment of a prospect’s likelihood to open a particular type of trade in the coming months. These models can act as a fast-start for lenders that intend to develop internal custom models, but don’t have the response performance within a particular product/geography/risk profile. They are also commonly used as a long-term solution for lenders without an internal model development team or budget for an outsourced model. Prescreen selection best practices Identify geography and traditional credit risk assessment of the prospect universe. Overlay attributes measuring accommodated trades and recent payment/balance trends to identify prospects with indications of ability to pay. Segment the prospect universe by recent credit usage to determine products that would resonate. Make final selections using propensity to open model scores to increase response rates by only making offers to consumers who are likely looking for new credit offers. While the best practices listed above don’t represent a risk-free approach in these uncertain times, they do provide a framework for identifying prospects with mitigated repayment risk and insights into the appropriate credit offer to make and when to make it. Learn about in the market models Learn about trended attributes VantageScore® is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC.

Big data is bringing changes to the way credit scores are reported and making it easier for lenders to find creditworthy consumers, and for consumers to qualify for the financing they need. Since last year’s annual report, alternative credit data1 has continued to gain in popularity. In Experian’s latest 2020 State of Alternative Credit Data report, we take a closer look at why alternative credit data is supplemental and essential to consumer lending and how it’s being adopted by both consumers and financial institutions. While the topic of alternative credit data has become more well known, its capabilities and benefits are still not widely discussed. For instance, did you know that … 89% of lenders agree that alternative credit data allows them to extend credit to more consumers. 96% of lenders agree that in times of economic stress, alternative credit data allows them to more closely evaluate consumer’s creditworthiness and reduce their credit risk exposure. 3 out of 4 consumers believe they are a better borrower than their credit score represents. Not only do consumers believe they’re more financially astute than their credit score depicts – but they’re happy to prove it, with 80% saying they would share various types of financial information with lenders if it meant increased chances for approval or improved interest rates. This year’s report provides a deeper look into lenders’ and consumers’ perceptions of alternative credit data, as well as an overview of the regulatory landscape and how alternative credit data is being used across the lending marketplace. Lenders who incorporate alternative credit data and machine learning techniques into their current processes can harness the data to unlock their portfolio’s growth potential, make smarter lending decisions and mitigate risk. Learn more in the 2020 State of Alternative Credit Data white paper. Download now

Changing consumer behaviors caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have made it difficult for businesses to make good lending decisions. Maintaining a consistent lending portfolio and differentiating good customers who are facing financial struggles from bad actors with criminal intent is getting more difficult, highlighting the need for effective decisioning tools. As part of our ongoing Q&A perspective series, Jim Bander, Experian’s Market Lead, Analytics and Optimization, discusses the importance of automated decisions in today’s uncertain lending environment. Check out what he had to say: Q: What trends and challenges have emerged in the decisioning space since March? JB: In the age of COVID-19, many businesses are facing several challenges simultaneously. First, customers have moved online, and there is a critical need to provide a seamless digital-first experience. Second, there are operational challenges as employees have moved to work from home; IT departments in particular have to place increase priority on agility, security, and cost-control. Note that all of these priorities are well-served by a cloud-first approach to decisioning. Third, the pandemic has led to changes in customer behavior and credit reporting practices. Q: Are automated decisioning tools still effective, given the changes in consumer behaviors and spending? JB: Many businesses are finding automated decisioning tools more important than ever. For example, there are up-sell and cross-sell opportunities when an at-home bank employee speaks with a customer over the phone that simply were not happening in the branch environment. Automated prequalification and instant credit decisions empower these employees to meet consumer needs. Some financial institutions are ready to attract new customers but they have tight marketing budgets. They can make the most of their budget by combining predictive models with automated prescreen decisioning to provide the right customers with the right offers. And, of course, decisioning is a key part of a debt management strategy. As consumers show signs of distress and become delinquent on some of their accounts, lenders need data-driven decisioning systems to treat those customers fairly and effectively. Q: How does automated decisioning differentiate customers who may have missed a payment due to COVID-19 from those with a history of missed payments? JB: Using a variety of credit attributes in an automated decision is the key to understanding a consumer’s financial situation. We have been helping businesses understand that during a downturn, it is important for a decisioning system to look at a consumer through several different lenses to identify financially stressed consumers with early-warning indicators, respond quickly to change, predict future customer behavior, and deliver the best treatment at the right time based on customer specific situations or behaviors.  In addition to traditional credit attributes that reflect a consumer’s credit behavior at a single point in time, trended attributes can highlight changes in a consumer’s behavior. Furthermore, Experian was the first lender to release new attributes specifically created to address new challenges that have arisen since the onset of COVID. These attributes help lenders gain a broader view of each consumer in the current environment to better support them. For example, lenders can use decisioning to proactively identify consumers who may need assistance. Q: What should financial institutions do next? JB: Financial institutions have rarely faced so much uncertainty, but they are generally rising to the occasion. Some had already adopted the CECL accounting standard, and all financial institutions were planning for it. That regulation has encouraged them to set aside loss reserves so they will be in better financial shape during and after the COVID-19 Recession than they were during the Great Recession. The best lenders are making smart investments now—in cloud technology, automated decisioning, and even Ethical and Explainable Artificial Intelligence—that will allow them to survive the COVID Recession and to be even more competitive during an eventual recovery. Financial institutions should also look for tools like Experian’s In the Market Model and Trended 3D Attributes to maximize efficiency and decisioning tactics – helping good customers remain that way while protecting the bottom line. In the Market Models Trended 3D Attributes  About our Expert: [avatar user="jim.bander" /] Jim Bander, PhD, Market Lead, Analytics and Optimization, Experian Decision Analytics Jim joined Experian in April 2018 and is responsible for solutions and value propositions applying analytics for financial institutions and other Experian business-to-business clients throughout North America. He has over 20 years of analytics, software, engineering and risk management experience across a variety of industries and disciplines. Jim has applied decision science to many industries, including banking, transportation and the public sector.

As subprime originations decrease, some think that subprime consumers are being locked out of the automotive finance market, but that’s not the whole story.