Tag: Balance Transfer Index

Let’s play word association. When I say holiday season, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? Childhood memories. Connecting with family. A special dish mom used to make. Or perhaps it’s budgeting, debt and credit card spend. The holidays can be a stressful time of year for consumers, and also an important time for lenders to anticipate the aftermath of big credit card spend. According to a recent study by Experian and Edelman Intelligence: 48 percent of respondents felt thoughtful when thinking about the season 30 percent felt stressed 24 percent felt overwhelmed. Positive emotions are up across the board this year, which may be a good sign for retailers and bankcard lenders. And if emotion is an indicator of spending, 2016 is looking good. But while the holly-jolly sentiment is high, 56 percent of consumers say holiday shopping puts a strain on their finances. And, 43 percent of respondents said the stress of holiday shopping makes it difficult to enjoy the season. Regardless of stress, consumers are seeking ways to spend. Nearly half of respondents plan to use a major credit card to finance at least a portion of their holiday spending, second only to cash. With 44 percent of consumers saying they feel obligated to spend more than they can afford, it’s easy to see why credit cards are so important this time of year. Bankcard originations have fully rebounded from the recession, exceeding $104 billion in the third quarter of 2016, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. While originations have rebounded, delinquency rates have remained at historic lows. The availability of credit is giving consumers more purchasing power to fund their holiday spending. But what happens next? As it turns out, many consumers resolve to consolidate all that holiday debt in the new year. Experian research shows that balance transfer activity reaches annual highs during the first quarter as consumers seek to simplify repayment and take advantage of lower interest rates. Proactive lenders can take advantage of this activity by making timely offers to consumers in need. At the same time, reactive lenders may feel the pain as balances transfer out of their portfolio. By identifying consumers who are most likely to engage in a card-to-card balance transfers, lenders can anticipate these consumer bankcard trends. The insights can then be used to acquire new customers and balances through prescreen campaigns, while protecting existing balances before they transfer out of an existing lender portfolio. With Black Friday and Cyber Monday behind us, the card balances are likely already rising. Now is the time for lenders to prepare for the January and February consolidations. Those hefty credit card statements are coming soon.

Experian estimates card-to-card consumer balance transfer activity to be between $35 and $40 billion a year, representing a sizeable opportunity for proactive lenders seeking to grow their revolving product line. This opportunity, however, is a threat for reactive lenders that only measure portfolio attrition instead of working to retain current customers. While billions of dollars are transferred every year, this activity represents only a small percentage of the total card population. And given the expense of direct marketing, lenders seeking to capitalize on and protect their portfolio from balance transfer activity must leverage data insights to make more informed decisions. Predicting a consumer’s future propensity to engage in card-to-card balance transfers starts with trended data. A credit score is a snapshot in time, but doesn’t reveal deep insights about a consumer’s past balance transfer activity. Lenders that rely only on current utilization will group large populations of balance revolvers into one bucket – and many of these individuals will have no intention of transferring to another product in the near future. Still, balance transfer activity can be identified and predicted by utilizing trended data. By analyzing the spend and payment data over time to see when one (or multiple) trade’s payment approximately matches another trade’s spend, we have the logic that suggests there has been a card-to-card transfer. What most people don’t realize is that trended data is difficult to work with. With 24 months of history on five fields, a single trade includes 120 data points. That’s 720 data points for a consumer with six trades on file and 72,000,000 for a file with 100,000 records, not to mention the other data fields in the file. It’s easy to see why even the most sophisticated organizations become paralyzed working with trended data. While teams of analysts get buried in the data, projects drag, costs swell, and eventually the world changes as rates climb and fall. By the time the analysis is complete, it must be recalibrated. But there is a solution. Experian has developed powerful predictions tools that combine past balance transfer history, historical transfer amounts, current trades carried and utilized, payments, and spend. Combined, these data fields can help identify consumers who are most likely to transfer a balance in the future. With Experian’s Balance Transfer Index the highest scoring 10 percent of consumers capture nearly 70 percent of total balance transfer dollars. Imagine the impact on ROI of reducing 90 percent of the marketing cost of your next balance transfer campaign and still reaching 70 percent of the balance transfer activity. Balance transfer activity represents a meaningful dollar opportunity for growth, but is concentrated in a small percentage of the population making predictive analytics key to success. Trended data is essential for identifying those opportunities, but financial institutions must assess their capabilities when it comes to managing the massive data attached. The good news is that regardless of financial institution size, solutions now exist to capture the analytics and provide meaningful and actionable insights to lenders of all sizes.