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New Experian Report Explores the State of the U.S. Rental Housing Market

Published: August 2, 2023 by Guest Contributor

After a period of historic, double-digit rent growth and razor-thin vacancy rates, the rental housing market has shown some signs of softening in recent months. And economic uncertainty still looms. The potential of a downturn this year and the existing economic strains faced by large swaths of renters may impact many rental-housing owners and managers nervous about their ability to find renters who can fulfill their lease terms.

In The State of the U.S. Rental Housing Market, a new report from Experian, our data scientists and analysts offer key insights into the U.S. housing market and its impact on renters. The analysis in this report is derived from synthesizing various data samples and sources, including Experian credit attributes and models as well as data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Experian RentBureau®. Experian RentBureau is the largest rental payment database and contains over 4.4 million transactions and more than 25 million renter profiles.

This report yields three major takeaways:

  1. Soaring interest rates and a slowing mortgage sector over the last year have taken heat out of the homebuying market, leading to more renters remaining in the renter pool.
  2. Inflation and other economic strains continue to squeeze renters’ finances.
  3. As rent prices increase and negative payment activity becomes more frequent, rental-housing owners and operators are striving to grow without expanding default risk and need to find renters with the best chances of fulfilling the terms of their leases.

Among the report’s other notable findings:

  • The average renter spends 38.6% of their income on rent. Households that spend more than 30% of their income on housing costs — including rent or mortgage payments, utilities and other fees — are considered “housing cost burdened” by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
  • Experian data shows 28% of renters with negative payment activity in 2022 (negative payment activity is defined as having late charges, insufficient funds, write-offs or outstanding balances). The figure represented an increase of 5.7 percentage points from 2021 and 3.8 percentage points from 2020. Also of note, low-to-moderate income renters are twice as likely to have a negative payment activity compared to other renters.

Rent-to-income ratios are highest in the West and the Northeast. Among all 50 states, the leaders are Washington D.C. (40.9%), California (39.7%), Washington state (35.6%), Utah (35.6%) and New York (35.3%).

Keep pace with trends in future blog posts that will dive deeper into the current conditions affecting the rental housing market and renters.

In the meantime, click here to download your free copy of The State of the U.S. Rental Housing Market Report in full.

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Executive Summary The July 2025 housing market reveals a landscape of shifting consumer behaviors, evolving lender strategies, and continued strength in borrower performance—especially within home equity. Origination volumes have dipped slightly, but direct marketing, particularly through Invitation to Apply (ITA) campaigns, is accelerating. As key players exit the space, gaps are opening across both marketing and origination, creating clear opportunities for agile institutions. This phase signals both caution and potential. The winners will be those who refine their marketing, sharpen segmentation, and deploy smarter risk monitoring in real time. TL;DR Risk Profile: Mortgage and HELOC delinquencies remain low. Slight increases in 90+ DPD are not yet cause for concern. Mortgage Originations: Modestly down, but marketing remains aggressive. Invitation to Apply (ITA) volumes outpacing prescreen. Home Equity Originations: Stable originations, competitive marketing volumes. ITA volumes outpacing prescreen similar to mortgage. Opportunity: Targeted direct mail and refined segmentation are growth levers in both mortgage and home equity. Risk Environment: Resilient Yet Watchful Experian’s July data shows both mortgage and home equity delinquencies hovering at historically low levels. Early-stage delinquencies dropped in June, while late-stage (90+ days past due) nudged upward—still below thresholds signaling broader distress. HELOCs followed a similar path. Early-stage movement was slightly elevated but well within acceptable ranges, reinforcing borrower stability even in a high-rate, high-tariff environment. Takeaway: Creditworthiness remains strong, especially for real estate–backed portfolios, but sustained monitoring of 90+ DPD trends is smart risk management. Home Equity: Volume Holds, Competition Resets Home equity lending is undergoing a major strategic reshuffle. With a key market participant exiting the space, a significant share of both marketing and originations is now in flux. What’s happening: Direct mail volumes in home equity nearly match those in first mortgages—despite the latter holding larger balances. ITA volumes alone topped 8 million in May 2025. Total tappable home equity stands near $29.5 trillion, underscoring a massive opportunity.(source: Experian property data.) Lenders willing to recalibrate quickly can unlock high-intent borrowers—especially as more consumers seek cash flow flexibility without refinancing into higher rates.   Direct Mail and Offer Channel Trends The continued surge in ITA campaigns illustrates a broader market pivot. Lenders are favoring: Controlled timing and messaging Multichannel alignment Improved compliance flexibility May 2025 Mail Volumes: Offer Type Mortgage Home Equity ITA 29.2M 25.8M Prescreen 15.6M 19.0M Strategic Insights for Lenders 1. Invest in Personalized Offers Drive better response rates with prescreen or ITA campaigns. Leverage data assets like Experian ConsumerView for ITA’s for robust behavioral and lifestyle segmentation. For prescreen, achieve pinpoint-personalization with offers built on propensity models, property attributes, and credit characteristics. 2. Seize the Home Equity Opening Use urgency-based messaging to attract consumers searching for fast access to equity—without the complexity of a full refi. Additionally, as mentioned above, leverage propensity, credit, and property (i.e. equity) data to optimize your marketing spend. 3. Strengthen Risk Controls Even in a low-delinquency environment, vigilance matters. Account Review campaigns, custom scorecards, and real-time monitoring help stay ahead of rising 90+ DPD segments. 4. Benchmark Smarter Competitive intelligence is key. Evaluate offer volumes, audience segmentation, and marketing timing to refine your next campaign. FAQ Q: What does the exit of a major home equity player mean? A: It leaves a significant gap in both marketing activity and borrower targeting. Lenders able to act quickly can capture outsized share in a category rich with equity and demand. Q: How should lenders respond to the evolving risk profile? A: Continue to monitor performance closely, but focus on forward-looking indicators like trended data, income verification, and alternative credit signals. Conclusion The housing market in July 2025 presents a clear message: the fundamentals are sound, but the strategies are shifting. Those ready to optimize outreach by making smarter use of data will seize a disproportionate share in both mortgage and home equity. Want to stay ahead? Connect with Experian Mortgage Solutions for the insights, tools, and strategies to grow in today’s evolving lending environment.  

Published: August 29, 2025 by Jonathan Reese

Home equity lending has re-emerged as a central theme in the U.S. financial landscape, driven by economic realities and consumer behavior.

Published: August 7, 2025 by Robin Gray

The June 2025 housing market trends report presents a nuanced view of the U.S. mortgage and home equity landscape.

Published: July 10, 2025 by Robin Gray

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