All posts by Ivan Ahmed

Early warning signs: Are you prepared for a shift in mortgage delinquencies?  As the mortgage industry enters the final quarter of 2025, signs of stress are emerging beneath what still appears, on the surface, to be a relatively stable housing market. Recent mortgage performance data indicates a notable increase in late-stage mortgage delinquencies, particularly among loans reaching 120 days past due (DPD)—a critical inflection point in the credit lifecycle that often precedes more serious default outcomes. (Smith, 2025)  While early-stage delinquencies (30 DPD) have remained volatile but directionally flat, the acceleration observed in later-stage delinquency signals a more concerning trend: a growing cohort of borrowers is struggling to recover once they fall behind. Historically, sustained increases at the 120-day mark have been a leading indicator of elevated 180-day delinquencies and higher foreclosure activity in subsequent quarters. (Smith, 2025)  For lenders and servicers, this shift highlights the importance of taking action before risk becomes fully realized.  A tale of two products: mortgages vs. HELOCs   Interestingly, this deterioration is not evenly distributed across product types. Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) have continued to show relative stability, with both early- and late-stage delinquency rates holding steady through mid-2025. This resilience likely results in stronger borrower equity positions, more conservative underwriting, and greater borrower flexibility in managing revolving credit obligations.  However, stability should not be mistaken for immunity. Elevated consumer debt, persistent inflationary pressures, and the resumption of certain deferred obligations (including student loans) could introduce risk into home equity portfolios with little advance notice.  The divergence between first-lien mortgage performance and HELOCs reinforces a critical reality: portfolio risk is no longer uniform.  Mortgage risk is increasingly segmented  Today’s risk environment demands more granular analysis. Borrower performance varies significantly based on loan vintage, equity position, income volatility, and broader household debt burdens. Late-stage mortgage delinquency growth is particularly concentrated among specific borrower segments rather than broadly distributed across portfolios.  This fragmentation means lenders can no longer rely solely on aggregate delinquency metrics. Instead, risk strategies can be differentiated by:  Product type (first mortgage vs. HELOC)  Delinquency stage (early vs. mid vs. late)  Borrower behavior and payment hierarchy  Local economic and labor market conditions  Modern risk frameworks increasingly rely on portfolio-specific modeling, continuous monitoring, and forward-looking indicators, rather than relying on lagging performance metrics.  Moving from reactive to predictive risk management  In a market defined by rapid shifts, reactive servicing strategies are no longer sufficient. The most effective lenders are transitioning toward predictive risk management, using near-real-time data to identify stress earlier in the delinquency curve.  Advanced risk monitoring capabilities enable lenders to:  Detect emerging risk before accounts reach irreversible delinquency stages.  Prioritize outreach and loss-mitigation resources more effectively.  Align intervention strategies with borrower behavior and the likelihood of recovery.  Targeted engagement—whether through proactive borrower communication, modified repayment options, or tailored servicing workflows—can significantly improve outcomes when applied during the mid-stage delinquency window, particularly between 60 and 120 days past due.  Strategic insight: Focus on the middle of the curve  Many risk strategies concentrate on two extremes: fully current accounts and severely delinquent loans. However, the greatest opportunity for loss avoidance often exists in the middle.  Borrowers in the 60–120 DPD range are frequently still recoverable, especially when interventions are informed by behavioral data rather than static credit attributes. Understanding which borrowers are likely to self-cure versus those trending toward deeper delinquency allows lenders to deploy capital and servicing resources more efficiently. (Smith, 2025)  A data-driven approach to mid-stage delinquency management can help lenders:  Improve loan-level profitability  Reduce servicing and loss-mitigation costs  Limit downstream foreclosure exposure  Strengthen long-term portfolio performance  The bottom line  The recent rise in late-stage mortgage delinquencies is not merely a short-term anomaly—it is an early warning signal. At the same time, stable HELOC performance highlights how risk dynamics can vary significantly across products and borrower segments. (Smith, 2025)  As the market moves through the remainder of 2025, lenders that adopt differentiated, predictive, and data-driven risk strategies will be far better positioned to navigate volatility, protect portfolio performance, and respond decisively as conditions evolve.  The question is no longer whether risk is changing, but whether your organization is equipped to identify and manage it before losses materialize.  Part of the Series: New Players, New Rules: How Direct Mail Is Reshaping Mortgage and Equity Lending    References  Smith, J. (2025). Mortgage delinquency trends. Journal of Housing Finance, 12(3), 45-60.  Doe, A. (2025). HELOC performance stability. Real Estate Economics Review, 18(2), 101-115. 

A Realignment is underway  The U.S. housing market is no longer waiting on the sidelines. After enduring over two years of historically high mortgage rates, the Federal Reserve began implementing rate cuts in fall 2025, with additional reductions forecast for early 2026. For lenders, this marks more than a turning point—it’s a call to action.  Whether you’re targeting first-time buyers, tracking refinance-ready loans, or watching affordability trends, today’s environment demands rapid, strategic adjustments.  Rate cuts are fueling renewed demand  Mortgage rates, which hovered around 7% for much of the past year, have begun to ease. Even a modest drop has the potential to unlock substantial borrower interest—particularly among the 4.4 million U.S. mortgages now “ripe” for refinance.  Expect a spike in both rate-and-term refinances and cash-out activity, as homeowners look to lower payments or access equity. Lenders must scale up quickly, especially around digital capacity, prescreen targeting, and streamlined closings.  Affordability is still a roadblock—Especially for younger renters  Despite improving borrowing conditions, affordability remains a systemic challenge. The national rent-to-income (RTI) ratio stands at 46.8%, up 7.7% since early 2023. In high-cost states like California and Massachusetts, it exceeds 56%.  Experian data reveals that 62% of renters fall into the low-to-moderate income category, spending over half their income on rent. Over 50% now fall into Near Prime or Subprime credit tiers, making alternative credit data—like rental payment history—vital for inclusive underwriting.  Refinance isn't the only opportunity—Target first-time buyers strategically  Gen Z is now the largest segment of the rental population, and many are financially strained yet aspirational. A major opportunity exists in helping these renters transition to homeownership using expanded credit models and customized offerings.  With Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)-approved models like VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T on the horizon, lenders should explore how newer scoring frameworks and rent payment reporting can increase access to mortgage credit.  Region-specific strategies are more important than ever  From Miami to Minneapolis, market conditions vary drastically. Some metros, like Kansas City (+16.7%) and Louisville (+14.2%), are experiencing double-digit rent growth, while cities like Atlanta and Jacksonville are seeing declines.  Lenders must tailor outreach based on local affordability trends, migration patterns, and housing supply constraints. Dynamic analytics tools—like Experian’s Ascend or Mortgage Insights Dashboard—can guide regional strategy at scale.  The supply side may not keep pace  Even with rate cuts stimulating demand, housing supply could remain a bottleneck. Multifamily completions are outpacing starts 1.5 to 1, and single-family construction, though recovering, remains cautious.  In markets with tight supply, reduced borrowing costs may drive up prices faster than inventory can absorb, exacerbating affordability for first-time buyers.  What lenders should prioritize now: Build Refinance Infrastructure: Prepare for increased volume with instant income verification tools like Experian Verify to streamline processes. Target First-Time Buyers: Use rental history, cashflow scores, and rent-to-income metrics to assess nontraditional credit applicants fairly. Get Granular with Geography: Align product offerings with local affordability, vacancy rates, and rent growth. Leverage Self-Service Prescreen Tools: Act on opportunities quickly using Experian’s agile targeting platforms. Model with New Credit Scores: Take advantage of the Experian Score Choice Bundle to test VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 2 side by side. Final Thought: The market is not rebounding—It is realigning  The current housing shift is not a return to old norms—it’s the start of a redefined landscape. Lenders who act decisively, invest in technology, and prioritize inclusivity will lead the next chapter in mortgage growth.  Experian is here to support you—with data, insights, and tools designed for this very moment.   

The Quiet But Real Shift in Mortgage Marketing  Despite the media’s focus on digital advertising, the mailbox is quietly becoming a major battleground again for mortgage and home equity lenders. The environment is ripe for this: interest rates are stabilizing near 7 % (which opens up refinance & home equity demand), and consumer credit profiles remain robust yet tightening in certain segments. For lenders, precision outreach is now a key differentiator.  Why Direct Mail Still Works — and Why It Matters Now  According to a 2025 industry study, direct‑mail marketing continues to deliver the strongest ROI: for example, direct mail’s ROI is cited at ~$58 for every dollar spent, compared with ~$19 for PPC and ~$7 for email. PostGrid  A separate piece notes that physical mail pieces still command attention: “Consumers are more likely to trust physical mail than digital ads … response rates can range from 2% to over 5% depending on targeting and message quality.” KYC Data+2Highnote+2  But the most important reason mail is working now: data + personalization. Lenders who combine accurate consumer/credit/property insight with mail campaigns are seeing better alignment of offers and borrowers. A recent article emphasizes that “when backed by high‑quality data sources and AI‑driven triggers, mortgage direct mail can outperform digital‑only campaigns.” Megaleads  For mortgage & home‑equity marketers specifically, Experian’s data shows direct mail and refined segmentation remain growth levers in a market where originations are modest, but competition for good borrowers is intense. Experian+1  Why this matters now, for lenders:  With rates comparatively high, many borrowers are choosing to postpone purchases or full refinances—but still open to tapping equity. That makes mail‑based offers (especially those tailored with relevant property/equity/credit data) very timely.  Digital advertising is crowded, algorithmic, and increasingly expensive — mail provides a differentiated channel.  The exit or pull‑back of certain large players in home equity creates opportunity gaps.   The Data Speaks: From ITA to Prescreen — and What’s Changing  Here’s a breakdown of key shifts:  In May 2025, for mortgage and home‑equity offers:  Mortgage ITA (Invitation to Apply) volume: ~29.2 million  Home Equity ITA volume: ~25.8 million  Mortgage Prescreen volume: ~15.6 million  Home Equity Prescreen volume: ~19.0 million Experian  Further, recent trends report that home equity direct mail offers have now surpassed first‑mortgage offers in some segments — driven by aggressive marketing and AVM‑based personalization. Experian  The latest data from the ICE Mortgage Technology November 2025 Mortgage Monitor shows that falling mortgage rates have expanded the pool of homeowners who can reduce monthly payments via refinance or access home equity, which in turn supports more targeted direct‑mail outreach. Mortgage Tech  What this means for campaign strategy:  Prescreen (where the lender sends offers to pre‑qualified or high‑propensity segments) is edging into prominence over broad ITA campaigns — because it enables targeted, efficient spend and stronger conversion.  Lenders can use property and credit data (e.g., equity levels, credit score, loan‑to‑value, tenure) to craft mail offers that align with actual borrower situations (not just “Dear Homeowner”).  The gap left by large players exiting or backing off in home equity means agile lenders can expand mail volume and capture incremental market share.   Market Movers: Who’s Winning — and Why  In the direct mail and home-equity space, a mix of established players and newer entrants is reshaping the competitive landscape. Overall mortgage mail volume is being driven by institutions that lean heavily on prescreen strategies and sophisticated, data-driven segmentation. At the same time, leadership in ITA mail offers is shifting away from traditional incumbents toward organizations using more agile marketing approaches and refined offer logic.  Notably, several non-traditional and alternative-model providers now rank among the top mailers in the home-equity category, signaling growing consumer interest in options such as shared equity or sale-leaseback structures. Fintech and digitally native lenders, in particular, are accelerating home-equity prescreen activity; their speed, experimentation, and product innovation are raising expectations for both relevance and simplicity in borrower outreach.  Meanwhile, pullbacks and exits by some large financial institutions have opened meaningful white space in the home-equity market, creating opportunities for others to capture unmet demand.  For lenders looking to compete, the playbook is becoming clearer: rapid testing and iteration, tight coordination between direct mail and digital follow-up, a strong focus on homeowner equity, and precise, data-driven targeting. The most effective campaigns align product design to well-defined segments – for example, borrowers with substantial equity, strong credit profiles, and established tenure – ensuring offers are both timely and highly relevant.  Prescreen vs. ITA: Why Targeting Wins  The shift from broad ITA to prescreen‑based campaigns might seem nuanced, but its implications are strategic:  Prescreen advantages:  Better alignment with borrower creditworthiness and property profile — because you are sending offers to those who meet risk and propensity criteria.  Improved conversion and campaign efficiency — by reducing wasted mailings to low‑probability recipients.  Lower marketing spend per funded loan — because you spend less to reach the right audience.  Faster speed‑to‑market — thanks to platforms that allow weekly refreshed data and custom lists. For example, Experian’s self‑service prescreen platform offers weekly data updates and FCRA‑compliant targeting.  Regulatory and operational clarity — prescreen infrastructure has matured, with aligned credit data, reason‑codes, and compliance built in.  ITA (Invitation to Apply) still has use cases:  When you want to cast a wider net (e.g., first‑time homebuyers, large volume builds)  When brand awareness is a goal rather than immediate action  When the product is straightforward and broader, not highly segmented  But the winning strategy in 2025 and beyond is data‑driven prescreen + targeted direct mail, especially in home equity. As one blog post notes, direct mail campaigns that are personalized can deliver up to ~44% stronger conversions compared with less personalized campaigns. Megaleads  Strategic Opportunities for Lenders & Marketing Teams  Based on the data and competitive shifts, here are actionable recommendations:  Expand Home Equity Prescreen Offers: With home equity direct mail offers now pushing ahead of first‑mortgage offers in volume (and with tappable equity reaching trillions), this channel is ripe. For instance, a recent BCG report estimates ~$18.3 trillion in tappable equity in the U.S. system. BCG Media Publications+1  Leverage the Player Exits: Large institutions reducing or exiting HELOC/home‑equity lines provide space for nimble lenders to increase direct‑mail volume and connect with households previously under‑targeted.  Integrate Multi‑Channel Touchpoints: While mail is the vehicle, the journey often involves digital follow‑up, landing pages, and timely calls. Studies show layering direct mail with digital channels improves results. Highnote+1  Use Data for Targeting, Not Just Volume: Utilize property, credit, income, and behavioral data (from providers like Experian) to identify segments like: homeowners with >30% equity, 5–10 years of tenure, credit score 700+, and interest in renovations or cash‑out use cases.  Speed Matters: Campaigns should be nimble. Weekly data refreshes, agile list creation, rapid mail deployment, and timely follow‑up matter in a competitive environment.  Measure & Optimize: Track response, conversion, ROI per piece. For example, what are funded loans per 1,000 mail pieces? Which segments convert better? Optimize creative, offer, timing.  Stay Compliant & Transparent: Prescreen offers must follow FCRA rules; mail pieces must clearly disclose terms. Consumers and regulators are increasingly sensitive to over‑targeting or over-personalization — balance personalization with respect and transparency.* Megaleads  Putting It All Together: Rethinking Your Direct‑Mail Strategy  If your marketing playbook still treats direct mail as a “safe‑bet, high‑volume fallback”, it’s time for an upgrade. Today’s borrowers expect relevance, personalization, and fast follow‑through. They are homeowners — not just buyers — and many are seeking home‑equity options rather than traditional purchase refis.  Lenders that find success in this space are likely to:  Use data and analytics (credit + property + behavior) to identify the right audience.  Deploy prescreen‑based campaigns rather than generic blanket offers.  Combine direct mail + digital + phone as an orchestrated funnel.  Monitor performance in near real‑time and iterate quickly.  Offer products aligned with what the borrower wants (e.g., interest‑only draw period HELOCs, fixed‑conversion options, etc).  Operate with speed, precision, and compliance.  As the market shifts, the channel is shifting too. Direct mail isn’t dead — it’s evolving, and those who invest in the right mix of data, targeting, creative, and execution stand to win.   Call to Action  Ready to elevate your direct‑mail and prescreen strategy? Contact Experian’s Mortgage & Housing solutions team to explore how our platform enables:  Weekly refreshed, bureau‑grade credit + property data  Self‑service prescreen campaign build and list generation  Custom segmentation using credit, equity, tenure, and product propensity  Compliance‑ready reason codes and targeting workflows* Visit: experian.com/mortgage or speak with your Experian account executive today.   Next in the Series  Blog Post 3 – “Beyond the HELOC: Why the Future of Home Equity Might Not Involve Loans at All”  *Clients are responsible for ensuring their own compliance with FCRA requirements. 

The U.S. housing market is no longer waiting on the sidelines. After enduring over two years of historically high mortgage rates, the Federal Reserve began implementing rate cuts in fall 2025, with additional reductions forecast for early 2026. For lenders, this marks more than a turning point—it’s a call to action. Whether you’re targeting first-time buyers, tracking refinance-ready loans, or watching affordability trends, today’s environment demands rapid, strategic adjustments. Rate cuts are fueling renewed demand Mortgage rates, which hovered around 7% for much of the past year, have begun to ease. Even a modest drop has the potential to unlock substantial borrower interest—particularly among the 4.4 million U.S. mortgages now “ripe” for refinance. Expect a spike in both rate-and-term refinances and cash-out activity, as homeowners look to lower payments or access equity. Lenders must scale up quickly, especially around digital capacity, prescreen targeting, and streamlined closings. Affordability is still a roadblock—Especially for younger renters Despite improving borrowing conditions, affordability remains a systemic challenge. The national rent-to-income (RTI) ratio stands at 46.8%, up 7.7% since early 2023. In high-cost states like California and Massachusetts, it exceeds 56%. Experian data reveals that 62% of renters fall into the low-to-moderate income category, spending over half their income on rent. Over 50% now fall into Near Prime or Subprime credit tiers, making alternative credit data—like rental payment history—vital for inclusive underwriting. Refinance isn't the only opportunity—Target first-time buyers strategically Gen Z is now the largest segment of the rental population, and many are financially strained yet aspirational. A major opportunity exists in helping these renters transition to homeownership using expanded credit models and customized offerings. With Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)-approved models like VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T on the horizon, lenders should explore how newer scoring frameworks and rent payment reporting can increase access to mortgage credit. Region-specific strategies are more important than ever From Miami to Minneapolis, market conditions vary drastically. Some metros, like Kansas City (+16.7%) and Louisville (+14.2%), are experiencing double-digit rent growth, while cities like Atlanta and Jacksonville are seeing declines. Lenders must tailor outreach based on local affordability trends, migration patterns, and housing supply constraints. Dynamic analytics tools—like Experian’s Ascend or Mortgage Insights Dashboard—can guide regional strategy at scale. The supply side may not keep pace Even with rate cuts stimulating demand, housing supply could remain a bottleneck. Multifamily completions are outpacing starts 1.5 to 1, and single-family construction, though recovering, remains cautious. In markets with tight supply, reduced borrowing costs may drive up prices faster than inventory can absorb, exacerbating affordability for first-time buyers. What lenders should prioritize now • Build Refinance Infrastructure: Prepare for increased volume with instant income verification tools like Experian Verify to streamline processes. • Target First-Time Buyers: Use rental history, cashflow scores, and rent-to-income metrics to assess nontraditional credit applicants fairly. • Get Granular with Geography: Align product offerings with local affordability, vacancy rates, and rent growth. • Leverage Self-Service Prescreen Tools: Act on opportunities quickly using Experian’s agile targeting platforms. • Model with New Credit Scores: Take advantage of the Experian Score Choice Bundle to test VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 2 side by side. Final Thought: The market is not rebounding—It is realigning The current housing shift is not a return to old norms—it’s the start of a redefined landscape. Lenders who act decisively, invest in technology, and prioritize inclusivity will lead the next chapter in mortgage growth. Experian is here to support you—with data, insights, and tools designed for this very moment.

In 2025, home equity lending has re-emerged as a central theme in the American financial landscape—an evolution not driven by hype, but by hard data, economic realities, and consumer behavior. As homeowners grapple with inflation, rising consumer debt, and a persistent affordability crisis in housing, the home equity line of credit (HELOC) is gaining traction as a practical, flexible, and often misunderstood financial solution.