The Experian Small Business Index™ was stable month-over-month, with a slight decrease to 44.7 in June. June 2025 Index Value (Jun): 44.7 Previous Month: 45.2 MoM: -0.5 YoY: -10.7 (Jun 2024 = 55.4) The index has evened out and remains relatively stable as the economy continues to operate on sound footing. Unemployment remains low and hourly wages continue to increase, and the economy added 147K jobs in June, a slight increase over May. Consumers are optimistic, and sentiment increased to 60.7, up from 52.2 in May. Small business optimism was steady at 98.6 in June, 0.2 points lower than May. Consumers continue their trend of starting new businesses, with 457K launched in June, a 2.2% increase over May. Inflation has remained even, with slight upticks in some sectors and slight decreases in others. Rent inflation continues a downward trend; it was 3.8% in June, down from 3.9% in May. Producer price inflation was also down 0.4 points to 2.3%, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Some sectors had inflation rise, with food inflation up slightly from May to 3.0% from 2.9%, overall inflation was up 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May, and core inflation increased from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June. The savings rate decreased to 4.5% in May, down from 4.9% in April, as consumers continue to spend. Explore Experian Small Business Index

As the automotive sector adapts to rising vehicle prices, shifting consumer behavior, and persistent inflation, the ripple effects are clearly visible in commercial credit activity. Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report (July 22, 2025) dives deep into the evolving credit dynamics within the auto industry—and one trend is clear: credit access is contracting across nearly every segment. Used Cars Rise, But Credit Lines Fall With the average new vehicle price exceeding \$47,000, many consumers are opting for used cars, priced more affordably at just over \$28,000. This shift has helped drive consistent growth in the used-car market, accompanied by an uptick in business activity and a growing demand for commercial credit. In fact, used-vehicle and aftermarket service providers have seen commercial credit inquiries jump approximately 20% above January 2021 levels. Their credit utilization rate now sits at 32%, reflecting the costs of managing larger inventories and higher parts prices. But unlike traditional signs of financial distress, this trend appears tied more to operational needs than liquidity crunches. Despite the increased appetite for credit, credit limits are shrinking. A Cross-Sector Credit Contraction Across the entire automotive supply chain, from OEMs to aftermarket shops, businesses are receiving smaller commercial credit lines on new originations than in previous years. The declines are significant: OEMs and New-Vehicle Dealers: Average commercial card limits have dropped by \$7.6K, now sitting at \$9.7K compared to \$17.4K in 2022–2023. Used-Vehicle Dealers and Aftermarket Services: Limits have fallen by \$5.8K, from \$13.6K to \$7.8K. Vehicle and Parts Wholesalers: These businesses faced the steepest cut—\$8.9K on average, down from \$18.5K to just \$9.6K. All subsectors experienced over a 40% reduction in average credit lines, signaling tighter lending conditions despite robust business activity in several parts of the industry. Why Are Credit Lines Shrinking? This broad contraction is not purely about borrower risk. In fact, many used-car and aftermarket businesses have maintained steady commercial risk scores, and delinquency rates remain relatively flat. A few critical factors include: Elevated Interest Rates: High financing costs are squeezing margins, especially for OEMs and franchised new-car dealers, where delinquencies are rising. Lenders may be proactively managing exposure. Segment-Specific Risk Trends: OEMs and dealers are facing mounting late-stage delinquencies—91+ DPD rates have nearly doubled since 2022—and their average risk scores are down ~4 points. Economic Uncertainty: Despite stable employment and wage growth, inflation, Fed policy, and geopolitical risk (like tariffs) are prompting more conservative credit practices. Portfolio Diversification: Lenders may be redistributing credit availability to less volatile sectors or industries with higher recovery potential. The Middle Squeeze: Wholesale Distribution Among the three major segments—OEM/New-Car Dealers, Used-Vehicle & Aftermarket, and Wholesale Distribution—wholesalers are caught in the middle. Their delinquency and risk score trends resemble those of OEMs, but their growing credit utilization and inquiry rates mirror the aftermarket segment. This dual exposure to shrinking new car volumes and rising parts demand puts them in a uniquely vulnerable position. What It Means for Credit Managers and Lenders These trends underscore the importance of granular credit monitoring. Treating the auto industry as a single credit risk profile is no longer viable. Subsector segmentation—by vehicle type, service focus, or market exposure—is key to understanding which businesses are truly at risk and which remain stable but under credit strain. For lenders, this is a time to rebalance risk models and align credit policies with real-time sector insights. For businesses, it’s a moment to double down on credit management and strategic planning. Stay ahead with Experian ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

Small Businesses remain resilient amid rate uncertainty and signs of job market weakness May 2025 Index Value (Apr): 45.2 Previous Month: 43.2 MoM: +2.0 YoY: -9.8 (May 2024 = 55.0) Last month’s dip was short-lived as May's economic figures remained strong, showcasing the continued resilience of the U.S. economy. Reduced tariffs, especially on China, eased market concerns amid ongoing trade talks. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% and wages continued to rise. New business starts remained stable at 447K in May, close to the monthly average of 441K since July 2020, and still well above pre-pandemic levels. Consumer sentiment and small business optimism increased after recent declines, though uncertainty still affects these surveys. Consumer sentiment was 98.8 in May, a 3-point increase over April, but 11% lower than a year ago. Inflation news was mixed: overall and food inflation saw slight upticks, while core inflation stayed flat and rent inflation dropped to its lowest since November 2021. The Fed's cautious approach persists, but predictions of a rate cut in the coming months are growing as inflation remains relatively steady and potential signs of job market weakness emerge. Explore Experian Small Business Index

Commercial Pulse Report | 7/1/2025 This week the Experian Commercial Pulse report focuses in on a fascinating paradox in the e-commerce industry that credit and risk management professionals should closely monitor. While online retail revenues continue their upward trajectory—now representing over 16% of total U.S. retail sales and generating quarterly revenues exceeding $300 billion—commercial credit inquiries from e-commerce businesses have declined by nearly 25% in the past year alone. This counterintuitive trend reveals important insights about business maturation, cash flow management, and evolving credit risk profiles in the digital commerce space. Watch our Commercial Pulse update to hear the details. Market Consolidation in Action The e-commerce landscape is undergoing significant consolidation. Despite the U.S. hosting nearly 14 million of the world's 30+ million e-commerce websites, the total number of e-commerce businesses declined by 13.1% between 2024 and 2025. This contraction, following explosive growth during the pandemic years, suggests the sector is moving beyond its initial growth phase into a more mature, efficiency-focused stage. For credit professionals, this consolidation presents both opportunities and challenges. Fewer new entrants mean reduced origination volumes, but surviving businesses may represent stronger, more creditworthy prospects. The Credit Demand Decline: Key Metrics The data reveals several critical trends in e-commerce credit behavior: Credit Inquiry Patterns: 2023 to 2024: 24.9% decrease in commercial credit inquiries Average credit accounts per business: Just over 2 accounts Average new credit amount: $32,000 (below pre-pandemic levels of $37,000) Historical Context: The current average credit amount represents a significant decline from the 2020 peak of $41,000, when federal COVID relief programs supplemented traditional lending. This normalization suggests businesses are operating with more realistic capital requirements and improved cash management. Strong Credit Performance Indicators Despite reduced credit demand, e-commerce businesses are demonstrating exceptional credit management: Delinquency Improvements: 60-day past-due rates: Decreased by 50% over four years (from 0.46% to 0.23%) 90-day delinquency rates: Following similar downward trend Commercial credit scores: Now above pre-pandemic levels Utilization Efficiency: Current utilization rate: 39% (down from 43.5% in 2020) Trend indicates improved cash flow management and conservative credit usage Strategic Implications for Credit Professionals 1. Portfolio Quality EnhancementThe improving delinquency rates and lower utilization suggest that e-commerce businesses requesting credit today may represent higher-quality prospects than in previous years. This sector's financial discipline could make it an attractive target for lenders seeking low-risk commercial accounts. 2. Origination Strategy AdjustmentWith credit inquiries down significantly, lenders may need to be more proactive in their e-commerce outreach. The reduced inquiry volume doesn't necessarily indicate reduced creditworthiness—it may simply reflect better cash management by these businesses. 3. Risk Modeling ConsiderationsThe sector's improved risk profile suggests that traditional risk models may need recalibration. E-commerce businesses that weathered the post-pandemic consolidation may deserve more favorable risk assessments than historical data might suggest. 4. Competitive PositioningAs fewer lenders may be focusing on this sector due to reduced demand, there could be opportunities for institutions willing to develop specialized e-commerce credit products and expertise. Market Outlook and Uncertainties While the e-commerce sector shows strong fundamentals, broader economic uncertainties remain, including: Potential tariff impacts on international supply chains Federal Reserve interest rate policy decisions Global energy market volatility These factors could influence future credit demand and risk profiles across all sectors, including e-commerce. The key takeaway: declining credit demand in e-commerce doesn't signal sector weakness—it indicates strength. Businesses that have survived the consolidation phase while maintaining strong cash flows and excellent credit performance may represent some of the most attractive commercial credit prospects in today's market. Stay Ahead with Experian ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

In an era of economic change and rapid entrepreneurial growth, small business lenders are rethinking how they assess creditworthiness. Traditional business credit models, while useful, often fall short in evaluating the full financial picture of today’s small business owners, many of whom are new to the market, operate as sole proprietors, and blur the lines between personal and business finances. To address these gaps, financial institutions are increasingly turning to blended credit scores, which combine consumer and business credit attributes to create a more holistic risk profile. Blended credit scoring is not a new concept, but its relevance has surged in recent years. As market conditions fluctuate and the composition of small business customers evolves, this approach offers a more accurate, inclusive, and strategic method for making credit decisions. It enables lenders to better serve emerging entrepreneurs, deliver personalized financial solutions, and retain customers in a competitive financial services landscape. A changing landscape for small businesses and the rise of new data sources for assessing credit risk One of the most compelling reasons to adopt blended credit scoring is the dramatic increase in new business formation. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Americans have continued to launch new businesses at historically high rates. In April 2025 alone, over 450,000 new business applications were filed, maintaining a trend that began during the COVID-19 pandemic and has yet to slow down1. This surge in entrepreneurship has fundamentally changed the profile of small business borrowers. Many of these new businesses are sole proprietorships or microenterprises with limited or no business credit history. Relying solely on business credit data in such cases can lead to incomplete or misleading assessments. Blended credit scores fill this gap by incorporating the personal credit behavior of business owners, offering a more comprehensive view of their financial reliability. For example, a first-time entrepreneur may have a strong personal credit history but no established business credit. A traditional model might flag this as high risk, while a blended model would recognize the individual’s responsible financial behavior and adjust the risk assessment accordingly. This not only improves access to capital for deserving borrowers but also helps lenders expand their portfolios with greater confidence. Personalization at scale: delivering the right offer at the right time to small business clients Another key advantage of blended credit scoring is its ability to support personalized financial offerings. In today’s digital-first economy, small business owners expect the same level of customization and responsiveness from their financial institutions as they do from consumer brands2. Meeting these expectations requires a deep understanding of each customer’s unique financial situation, something that blended scores are well-equipped to provide. Research from industry leaders highlights the growing importance of personalization in financial services. Customers are more likely to engage with and remain loyal to institutions that offer relevant, timely, and tailored solutions2. Blended credit data enables this by revealing patterns and preferences that might otherwise go unnoticed. Consider a small business owner who uses personal credit cards to finance business expenses. A lender relying solely on business credit data might miss signs of financial strain or opportunity. With a blended score, however, the lender can detect shifts in spending behavior, anticipate credit needs, and proactively offer solutions—such as a business line of credit or working capital loan—before the customer even asks. This proactive approach not only enhances customer experience but also strengthens the lender’s position in the market. By delivering the right offer at the right time, financial institutions can build long-term relationships, increase wallet share, and reduce churn. Protecting market share: managing the consumer-business credit overlap Another reason why blended credit scores are gaining traction is the increasing overlap between consumer and business financial portfolios3. For many small business owners, especially sole proprietors and freelancers, the line between personal and business finances is often blurred. They may use the same bank accounts, credit cards, or even loans for both purposes. It’s typical for the first two years for a business principal to leverage their own personal cash to infuse the business with capital and may take several years to establish separate accounts or a business credit profile. This convergence presents both a challenge and an opportunity for financial institutions. The scenario complicates risk assessment and product segmentation while presenting a need that gives lenders a chance to deepen customer relationships, preventing flight to a competitor—if managed correctly. According to the Federal Reserve’s 2023 Small Business Credit Survey, nearly 70% of small employer firms used personal funds to support their businesses. This statistic underscores the importance of viewing customers through a dual lens. A lender that fails to recognize the interconnectedness of personal and business finances can misjudge creditworthiness or miss cross-sell opportunities. Blended credit scores address this challenge by integrating data from both domains, allowing for more accurate underwriting and more strategic customer engagement. It also helps institutions identify at-risk customers who might be tempted to move their financial services elsewhere in search of better support. By offering integrated solutions that reflect the full scope of a customer’s financial life, lenders can increase loyalty and reduce the likelihood of default. The benefits of blended credit scoring are not just theoretical—they are being realized in practice by forward-thinking financial institutions. Fintech companies have embraced this approach to serving underbanked and emerging business segments. By leveraging alternative data and machine learning, they can assess risk more dynamically and inclusively. Traditional banks are also beginning to adopt blended models, to enable the approval of more loans, reduce default rates, and improve customer satisfaction. In a competitive lending environment, these advantages can be a competitive differentiator. Another major benefit for lenders is that blended scores support regulatory compliance and risk management initiatives. By providing a more complete picture of borrower behavior, they help institutions meet fair lending standards and avoid discriminatory practices. They also enhance portfolio monitoring, enabling early detection of potential issues and more effective intervention strategies. Despite its advantages, blended credit scoring is not without challenges. Data integration, privacy concerns, and model transparency are all important considerations. Financial institutions must ensure that they have the infrastructure and governance in place to manage and protect sensitive data. While blended scores offer valuable insights, they should complement human judgment and relationship management. Lenders must strike a balance between data-driven decision-making and personalized service. For small businesses, education is a key factor in gaining access to capital early on. Many small business owners are unaware of how their personal credit affects their business prospects or how to establish a business credit profile. Financial institutions have an opportunity to educate customers, promote responsible credit behavior, and build trust through transparency. As the small business landscape continues to evolve, so too must the tools used to support it. Blended consumer and business credit scores represent a smarter, more inclusive approach to credit decision-making. They reflect the realities of modern entrepreneurship, enable personalized engagement, and help financial institutions retain valuable customers in a competitive market. By embracing blended credit scoring, lenders can not only improve their bottom line but also contribute to a more equitable and dynamic small business ecosystem. In a time of uncertainty and opportunity, that’s a win for everyone. Want to learn more about Experian’s blended credit solutions? Visit our website for more details. Sources: 1 – US Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics Monthly Data Release 2 – The Fintech Times, Personalization Takes Centre Stage in Financial Services for 2025, December 2024 3 – Federal Reserve and IRS Data, 2024, While specific government statistics on consumer-business credit overlap are limited, industry analysis and Federal Reserve research highlight the growing convergence of personal and business financial behaviors, especially among sole proprietors and small business owners. Related Posts

Commercial Pulse Report | 6/17/2025 Economic uncertainty is often seen as a deterrent to growth, but for many Americans, it’s become the fuel for a fresh start. As inflation wavers and traditional employment structures shift, more individuals are stepping out of corporate roles to pursue business ownership. In this week's Commercial Pulse Report, we take a closer look at what's driving this wave of entrepreneurial activity. Gen X Leads the Charge Toward Self-Employment According to Guidant Financial's 2025 Small Business Trends report, Generation X is leading the charge. Many in this age group are opting out of traditional career paths, motivated by a desire for autonomy, flexibility, and a more purposeful work life. According to Guidant’s report, Gen X holds the largest share of U.S. small business ownership, with a significant portion of these entrepreneurs transitioning from established careers. What’s driving this shift? Dissatisfaction with corporate life and a strong desire to be one’s own boss are leading motivators. It’s a story of experienced professionals reevaluating priorities and seeking more control over their financial future. And it appears to be a fulfilling decision—75% of small business owners report being happy with their choice to go independent. Retirement Savings Power New Ventures A surprising—but telling—statistic in ’s report: 53% of new business owners used 401(k) retirement funds to launch their ventures. This trend underscores a growing willingness to invest personal wealth into long-term entrepreneurial aspirations. Known as Rollovers as Business Startups (ROBS), this approach allows individuals to use retirement funds without early withdrawal penalties. It’s a bold move, signaling high confidence among business owners—but also highlighting gaps in access to traditional funding channels. Entrepreneurs are taking on more personal risk, in part because institutional capital isn't always accessible to young businesses. Interestingly, 56% of all new businesses are either newly founded or existing independent ventures, showing a diverse range of entrepreneurial approaches—from solo startups to revitalized legacy brands. The Credit Dillema for Young Businesses Experian’s data shows that businesses under two years old account for more than 50% of new commercial card originations. These companies are opting for credit cards over term loans due to fewer barriers to entry, but this often means lower funding limits. Meanwhile, newer businesses face steeper challenges securing traditional loans. They now represent just 15% of term loan originations, down from 27% in 2022. For lenders, policy makers, and service providers, these trends underscore the need to rethink how we support emerging businesses. From alternative funding tools to better credit-building pathways, there’s a growing opportunity to empower America’s newest entrepreneurs. Stay Ahead with Experian ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

In today’s constantly shifting small business market, high-quality customer data is no longer just a byproduct of operations—it’s a strategic asset. For business-to-business (B2B) firms, the ability to harness blended credit data aggregates—a fusion of consumer and commercial credit insights—unlocks powerful new opportunities in custom risk modeling. As most small businesses today are newly formed and lack traditional credit histories, especially with the rise of AI-driven solopreneurs, leveraging blended aggregates enables more accurate credit assessments, stronger client relationships, and faster, smarter growth. How Blended Credit Data Aggregates Enhance Risk Modeling Aggregate credit data refers to compiled information from multiple sources, often anonymized and grouped to reveal patterns, trends and insights that individual data points cannot provide. In the context of risk modeling, this data can include financial histories, transaction volumes, payment behaviors, industry trends, and macroeconomic indicators. When synthesized effectively, it allows B2B firms to create nuanced, predictive models that assess the creditworthiness and potential risk of clients with greater precision. A recent discussion with our partner Kapitus revealed how they used new data sources to enhance their ability to identify creditworthy businesses that traditional banks overlooked. "By leveraging blended business and consumer credit data aggregates, firms can increase the scorable records for businesses by 10-50%."Arun Narayan Unlike traditional models that rely on static credit scores or broad industry classifications, custom risk models built on aggregate data are dynamic and adaptable. They can be tailored to reflect the unique characteristics of a firm’s customer base, industry verticals, and strategic goals. At a time when market fluctuations abound, firms should protect their ability to do business with less risk by leveraging better quality data to understand their customers in their current state. Evaluating Solopreneurs with Blended Credit Data Aggregates One of the most significant shifts in the B2B ecosystem is the emergence of solopreneurs—individuals running businesses independently, often leveraging AI tools to scale operations. These entrepreneurs may not fit traditional credit profiles, lacking extensive financial histories or large-scale operations. However, they represent a growing and potentially lucrative segment. Aggregate blended data allows B2B firms to evaluate these non-traditional clients more effectively. By analyzing patterns across thousands of similar small-scale businesses, and consumers, firms can identify indicators of success or risk that would be invisible in a conventional business credit check, increasing the total volume of scorable records. With this method, firms can gain a holistic view of a customer’s consistent revenue from digital platforms, high engagement metrics, or rapid customer acquisition, signaling a healthy business or high demand, even in the absence of long-term financial records. AI-powered solopreneurs often operate in emerging sectors where traditional risk models fall short. Blended aggregate data may help bridge this gap by offering a broader view of sector performance, peer benchmarks, and evolving market dynamics. This enables B2B firms to extend credit or services to new customers with confidence, foster long-term relationships, and develop a more diverse account mix within their portfolios. Driving Growth with Personalized Risk Models from Aggregated Data Another critical advantage of blended aggregate credit data is its role in enabling personalized risk models. Rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach, B2B firms can segment their clients based on behavior, industry, size, and growth trajectory. This segmentation allows for tailored risk assessments that align with each client’s unique profile, helping the firm to discover areas of opportunity to grow within their portfolio by offering the right products at the right time. Here’s how blended credit data aggregates support personalized credit models: Adjust risk scoring based on unique cash flow cycles Compare subscription-based revenue vs. seasonal income Align product recommendations with client maturity stage By identifying low-risk clients who may have been overlooked by traditional models, firms can confidently extend more favorable terms, increase credit limits, or offer customized financing solutions. This proactive approach strengthens client loyalty and opens new revenue streams or pockets of hidden opportunity to grow in a difficult market. Aggregate data supports predictive analytics, allowing firms to anticipate changes in client behavior or market conditions, so that firms can be first to the table to anticipate the needs of their customers, deepening relationships. Using Blended Data Aggregates to Strengthen Client Relationships Beyond acquisition and credit decisions, blended aggregate data plays a pivotal role in account management and relationship building. By continuously analyzing customer data in aggregate, B2B firms can uncover opportunities to add value, address pain points, and enhance service delivery. This can help firms to better anticipate the needs of their customers, allowing them to be first to the table with a solution. Customer patterns may show that a client isn’t fully using a service. This creates a chance for targeted outreach, before cancellation happens. It’s a proactive way to enhance lifetime value. Alternatively, payment trends might indicate cash flow challenges, allowing the firm to proactively offer flexible terms or support to help businesses cover gaps in their time of need, solidifying lifetime customer value. These insights foster trust and demonstrate commitment to the success of small businesses. Over time, this deepens the relationship, increases retention, and positions the firm as a strategic partner rather than just a vendor. Blended aggregate credit data can inform broader account strategies that can help sellers to build better relationships for account penetration. By comparing a business customer’s performance to industry benchmarks or peer cohorts, account managers can provide valuable insights and recommendations that add incremental value. This consultative approach not only differentiates the firm but also drives mutual growth within the broader marketplace. Best Practices for Implementing Blended Credit Data Aggregates While the benefits of aggregate credit data are clear in the short and long-term, its effective use requires careful consideration. Data quality, privacy, and integration are critical factors. Firms must ensure that the data they collect is accurate, up-to-date, and compliant with relevant regulations. Integrating data from disparate sources—CRM systems, financial platforms, third-party providers—requires infrastructure and governance. Experian is an excellent advocate for clients looking to easily implement a custom model with a dedicated Commercial Data Sciences Consulting team, offering end-to-end white glove service. In an era defined by complexity and change, blended aggregate data is a powerful tool for B2B firms seeking to build resilient, responsive, and client-centric risk models. Whether navigating the rise of AI-enabled solopreneurs, personalizing credit strategies for optimized growth, or deepening relationships with existing accounts, the ability to harness and interpret aggregate data is a defining capability. As technology continues to evolve and data becomes more abundant, the firms that invest in custom risk modeling will be better positioned to thrive. They will not only mitigate risk more effectively but also unlock new opportunities, foster innovation, and build lasting partnerships in an increasingly dynamic marketplace. 🚀 Ready to build custom models with blended credit data aggregates?Contact Experian’s Commercial Data Sciences team. Learn more about our blended data solution set here.

Commercial Pulse Report | 6/3/2025 The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report provides a sharp look at how recent economic shifts are impacting small businesses across the U.S., with a special focus on supply chains, specifically the transportation industry, which is experiencing fallout from changing trade policies. Are industry-specific models effective in mitigating risk? Inflation, Employment, and Consumer Outlook April inflation cooled slightly to 2.3%, marking the lowest increase since February 2021. While this might suggest some price relief, the overall sentiment in the market tells a more cautious story. Unemployment held steady at 4.2%, and wages continued to climb, signaling that the labor market remains resilient. However, optimism is waning. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 95.8, its lowest point since October 2024. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell to 50.8 in early May, reflecting growing concern over the economic outlook. Together, these indicators suggest that although the job market remains stable, confidence — both among businesses and consumers — is eroding. A Dip in the Small Business Index April saw a drop in Experian’s Small Business Index, falling from 47.2 to 43.2, with a year-over-year decline of 11.9 points. This marks the first decline in four months and highlights the early impact of broad tariffs announced on April 2nd. While the dip was modest, it reflects growing pressure on small businesses as they navigate cost increases, supply chain uncertainty, and changing consumer behavior. Encouragingly, despite the turbulence, several economic indicators remained steady. Mortgage rates held below 7% for the 17th straight week, and business formation remained strong with over 449,000 new businesses launched in April. Transportation Industry: First to Feel the Hit This month’s report shines a spotlight on the transportation sector, which has been uniquely sensitive to recent tariff activity. As a major driver of the U.S. economy — contributing 3.3% to GDP and employing over 4% of the workforce — transportation is often the first industry to feel the ripple effects of economic change. And the response was swift. After trade tariffs were announced in early April, shipping volumes from China to the U.S. dropped by more than 60% year-over-year. Just weeks later, following a temporary 90-day lift on tariffs, volumes rebounded sharply, jumping over 28%. This volatility underscores the sector’s dependence on global trade — and the speed at which policy shifts can influence business activity. Rising Risk — and Smarter Tools Financial stress in the transportation industry is rising. Businesses are carrying higher credit balances, delinquencies are increasing, and commercial credit scores have fallen from 44 to 36 since 2015. These trends point to a sector that’s struggling to adapt amid changing economic conditions. To help lenders better manage risk, Experian developed a transportation-specific credit model that significantly outperforms generic scoring models. By focusing on variables like credit utilization and payment history — which are particularly telling in this industry — the model offers a more accurate picture of which accounts using transportation financing are most likely to default. In today’s uncertain environment, such targeted tools are crucial for staying ahead of risk. Generic models aren't enough For credit professionals and risk leaders, the message is clear: in times of volatility, generic models aren’t enough. Tailored strategies — like Experian’s transportation-specific scoring model — provide the clarity needed to make smarter, faster decisions. Read this week's report for more details. Stay Ahead with Experian ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

Small Businesses are showing fiscal discipline and resilience amid changing conditions. April 2025 Index Value (Apr): 43.2 Previous Month: 47.2 MoM: -4.0 YoY: -11.9(Apr 2024 = 55.1) April marked the first month reflecting the impact of the broad tariffs announced on April 2nd. While the index experienced a decline, the decrease was modest due to the continued resilience of the U.S. economy. Unemployment remained nearly stable at 4.2%, average hourly wages continued to rise, and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages stayed below 7% for the 17th consecutive week. Additionally, the inflation rate increased by just 2.3% in April, the lowest rise since February 2021. Some metrics showed signs of deterioration, contributing to the drop in the index. The ongoing shifts in tariff policy have created uncertainty among consumers and small business owners. Consumer sentiment fell to 52.2 in April, down from 57.0 in March and 32% lower than a year ago. Small business optimism declined to 95.8 in April, marking the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98. Despite these economic challenges, new businesses continued to form at high rates, with 449,508 new business applications filed in April, nearly matching March's figures and still well above pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, tariff relief with China brought welcome news to many small businesses still reliant on those imports. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts

Navigating Credit and Policy Crosswinds Experian is very pleased to announce the release of the Q1 2025 Main Street Report. Watch Brodie Oldham present the latest insights on small business from the Q1 Main Street Report. Watch Q1 Quarterly Business Credit Review Webinar Small business performance strong in the face of significant challenges: As economic crosswinds continue into 2025, Experian’s Q1 Main Street Report offers a sharp lens into the evolving risk landscape for U.S. small businesses. With stable credit utilization, modest delinquency trends, and over 449,000 new business applications in April alone, the data points to a cautiously optimistic outlook. For risk leaders, this report provides critical insights into regional and sectoral credit behavior, the growing role of alternative data in underwriting, and emerging areas of exposure and opportunity, equipping you to recalibrate strategies in real time. Download the latest report for more insight. Download Q1 Main Street Report Related Posts

Commercial Pulse Report | 05/19/2025 The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals a complex but fascinating picture of the U.S. economy and the small business landscape. According to Javier Rodriquez-Paiva's research, while headline indicators suggest moderation, like slowing inflation and a steady unemployment rate, beneath the surface, disparities in recovery and credit performance continue to deepen. Here’s a breakdown of this week’s major findings. Watch The Commercial Pulse Update A Cooling Economy: GDP Contracts, Sentiment Slides The most attention-grabbing headline this cycle is the 0.3% contraction in Q1 GDP, marking the first quarterly decline since Q1 2022. The Bureau of Economic Analysis attributes the dip to a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariffs, which disrupted the trade balance and weighed on growth. Meanwhile, inflation continues to cool. March’s inflation rate landed at 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February, while core inflation—excluding food and energy—fell to 2.8%, its lowest level since 2021. This may offer some relief to consumers and businesses alike, but consumer sentiment dropped sharply to 52.2 in April, reflecting growing unease. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and the lowest reading since July 2022. Labor Market Holds Steady Despite the GDP dip, the job market appears stable. April’s unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while the U.S. added 177,000 jobs—a slight slowdown from March, but still a positive sign. Wages rose again, averaging \$31.06 per hour, indicating that employers continue to compete for talent even as other indicators cool. Small Business Index Ticks Up, Optimism Holds The Experian Small Business Index rose to 47.2 in March, up from 45.4 in February. That’s the third consecutive monthly increase, signaling moderate optimism among small business owners. However, the index remains 9.3 points below last year’s level, reflecting broader economic uncertainties. Still, the environment for new ventures remains strong. In March alone, over 452,000 new business applications were filed—a 6.4% increase from February. The rate of business starts has remained significantly elevated since the pandemic, a trend that continues to bolster the small business ecosystem. K-Shaped Recovery: The Uneven Road Ahead One of the most critical insights from this report is the continued evidence of a K-shaped recovery—where higher-income households and affluent communities are thriving, while lower-income groups and businesses face mounting financial strain. Experian’s research shows: The top 1% of households have seen income grow over 500% since 1979, while the bottom 20% have only grown by 31%. The top 10% hold over 67% of total U.S. wealth, while the bottom 50% hold just 2.4%. Retailers in affluent ZIP codes are showing stronger credit performance, including lower delinquency rates, better credit scores, and fewer derogatory filings compared to their peers in low-to-moderate income areas. These patterns aren’t just numbers—they highlight structural challenges for economic equity and raise questions about how future policy and credit access strategies should evolve. What This Means for Lenders and Business Leaders For commercial lenders and business decision-makers, the takeaway is clear: understanding the geographic and demographic context of credit risk has never been more important. The divergence in recovery paths demands more nuanced credit assessment and customer support strategies. With new business formation still booming and small business owners showing resilience, there are real opportunities—but also growing gaps in financial well-being that could impact portfolio performance over time. Stay Ahead with Experian ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

Get the latest insights on small business credit performance. During this webinar, Experian discussed small business credit conditions and presented key findings from the latest Main Street Report for Q1 2025 during the Quarterly Business Credit Review. Originally Presented:Date: Wednesday, May 28th, 2025Time: 10:00 a.m. (Pacific) / 1:00 p.m. (Eastern) Our lead presenter, Brodie Oldham, shared his insights on the macroeconomic environment and delved into the latest Main Street Report and the most recent small business credit data to examine what it revealed about small businesses' performance. We concluded the session by taking questions from attendees. Why Attendees Found Value in This Webinar: Leading Experts on Commercial and Macro-Economic Trends Credit insights and trends on 30+ Million active businesses Industry Hot Topics Covered (Inclusive of Business Owner and Small Business Data) Commercial Insights you cannot get anywhere else Peer Insights with Interactive Polls (Participate) Discover and understand small business trends to make informed decisions Actionable takeaways based on recent credit performance Get Notified About Future Webinars