Commercial Pulse Report | 6/3/2025
The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report provides a sharp look at how recent economic shifts are impacting small businesses across the U.S., with a special focus on supply chains, specifically the transportation industry, which is experiencing fallout from changing trade policies. Are industry-specific models effective in mitigating risk?
Inflation, Employment, and Consumer Outlook
April inflation cooled slightly to 2.3%, marking the lowest increase since February 2021. While this might suggest some price relief, the overall sentiment in the market tells a more cautious story. Unemployment held steady at 4.2%, and wages continued to climb, signaling that the labor market remains resilient.
However, optimism is waning. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 95.8, its lowest point since October 2024. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell to 50.8 in early May, reflecting growing concern over the economic outlook. Together, these indicators suggest that although the job market remains stable, confidence — both among businesses and consumers — is eroding.
A Dip in the Small Business Index
April saw a drop in Experian’s Small Business Index, falling from 47.2 to 43.2, with a year-over-year decline of 11.9 points. This marks the first decline in four months and highlights the early impact of broad tariffs announced on April 2nd. While the dip was modest, it reflects growing pressure on small businesses as they navigate cost increases, supply chain uncertainty, and changing consumer behavior.
Encouragingly, despite the turbulence, several economic indicators remained steady. Mortgage rates held below 7% for the 17th straight week, and business formation remained strong with over 449,000 new businesses launched in April.
Transportation Industry: First to Feel the Hit
This month’s report shines a spotlight on the transportation sector, which has been uniquely sensitive to recent tariff activity. As a major driver of the U.S. economy — contributing 3.3% to GDP and employing over 4% of the workforce — transportation is often the first industry to feel the ripple effects of economic change.

And the response was swift. After trade tariffs were announced in early April, shipping volumes from China to the U.S. dropped by more than 60% year-over-year. Just weeks later, following a temporary 90-day lift on tariffs, volumes rebounded sharply, jumping over 28%. This volatility underscores the sector’s dependence on global trade — and the speed at which policy shifts can influence business activity.
Rising Risk — and Smarter Tools
Financial stress in the transportation industry is rising. Businesses are carrying higher credit balances, delinquencies are increasing, and commercial credit scores have fallen from 44 to 36 since 2015. These trends point to a sector that’s struggling to adapt amid changing economic conditions.
To help lenders better manage risk, Experian developed a transportation-specific credit model that significantly outperforms generic scoring models. By focusing on variables like credit utilization and payment history — which are particularly telling in this industry — the model offers a more accurate picture of which accounts using transportation financing are most likely to default. In today’s uncertain environment, such targeted tools are crucial for staying ahead of risk.
Generic models aren’t enough
For credit professionals and risk leaders, the message is clear: in times of volatility, generic models aren’t enough. Tailored strategies — like Experian’s transportation-specific scoring model — provide the clarity needed to make smarter, faster decisions. Read this week’s report for more details.
Stay Ahead with Experian
- ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
- ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
- ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Related Posts
Small business formation remains one of the more notable trends in the U.S. economy. In August 532,000 new businesses launched across the country. While that was down from July, it remained well above historical averages. Since July 2020, an average of 455,000 new businesses have opened each month—56% higher than the pre-pandemic monthly average in 2018 and 2019. But the national numbers only tell part of the story. Watch The Commercial Pulse Update Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse report analysis examines where this growth is occurring and what it means for the commercial credit market. The data show that the South has emerged as an important center of small-business growth. And the businesses driving that expansion tend to have a different profile from their counterparts in other regions. For commercial lenders, understanding those differences can provide valuable context when evaluating new opportunities, credit demand and portfolio risk. Business growth is shifting geographically New business formation has increased across all U.S. regions, but the pace has not been uniform. Prior to 2018, regional differences in growth were relatively modest. During the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, the South led the country in new business application growth. Since 2022, the West has posted the strongest growth, while the South continues to account for the greatest volume of new business openings. One factor providing context for that growth is population. The population of the South has grown more than 7% since 2019. Since 2020 alone, the region has added more than 3.6 million residents, outpacing every other U.S. region. Meanwhile, populations in other parts of the country declined between 2020 and 2022 before beginning to recover. Business formation and population movement do not necessarily have a simple cause-and-effect relationship. But their parallel growth highlights how the geographic makeup of both consumers and businesses has been changing. Credit-active businesses are growing even faster in the South The shift becomes even clearer when looking at businesses using commercial credit. Experian data shows the number of credit-active businesses in the United States has increased 55% since 2018. Every region participated in that expansion, but the South experienced the greatest growth at 70%, followed by the North at 52%, West at 50% and Midwest at 36%. The South now represents approximately 39% of U.S. credit-active businesses. It also accounted for more than 40% of newly opened commercial accounts in 2026, compared with 37% in 2019. For commercial credit organizations, that means the South represents not just a growing population of businesses, but an increasingly significant share of businesses participating in the commercial credit ecosystem. Southern businesses tend to be smaller and younger The composition of this growth is just as important as its scale. Credit-active businesses in the South and West tend to skew smaller and younger than those in the North and Midwest. In the South, 53% of businesses generate less than $500,000 in annual revenue, while 59% have fewer than five employees. Only 36% have been operating for more than 10 years, compared with 43% in the Midwest. Those characteristics can influence how businesses interact with credit. A younger business, for example, may have had less time to establish multiple commercial credit relationships. That pattern appears in Experian’s data. Across the United States, the average number of commercial credit accounts per business has declined from approximately 1.8 in 2018 to 1.5 in 2026. The South experienced the steepest decline and currently has the fewest accounts per business. At the same time, commercial credit inquiries have increased since 2023, most recently peaking in early 2026. Inquiry rates have typically been higher in the Midwest and South. The combination of fewer existing accounts and elevated inquiry activity provides useful context for lenders seeking to understand the credit needs of a growing population of younger businesses. Credit utilization tells another part of the story Regional differences also appear after businesses establish credit relationships. Businesses in the Midwest and North opening new commercial accounts tend to receive higher lines than businesses in the South and West. At the same time, businesses in the South show higher commercial card utilization despite carrying somewhat lower average balances. Experian’s analysis points to lower credit lines as an important factor behind that relationship. These trends reinforce why looking beyond a single credit metric can be important. Higher utilization, for example, can take on additional context when considered alongside credit-line size, business age, balances and regional business formation. Growth brings opportunities—and risk factors to monitor Despite significant growth and changes in business composition, regional credit performance has remained relatively steady. Commercial delinquencies across all regions are near pre-pandemic levels, while commercial credit risk scores have been relatively stable. There are regional differences worth monitoring, however. Businesses in the South have lower average commercial credit scores than businesses in the other regions analyzed, and delinquency rates tend to be higher in the North and South than in the Midwest and West. The broader takeaway is not simply that there are more small businesses in the South. It is that the composition of the commercial market is evolving alongside that growth. The South represents a growing share of credit-active businesses and new commercial accounts. Many of those businesses are younger, smaller and have fewer established commercial credit relationships. Their credit needs and behaviors may therefore differ from those of more mature businesses in other parts of the country. For commercial lenders and risk leaders, understanding those distinctions can help provide greater context around acquisition, underwriting and portfolio management decisions. As small business formation continues, Experian will continue monitoring where that growth is occurring—and how the changing business landscape is showing up in commercial credit behavior. Learn more ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Where are small businesses growing in the U.S.? Experian data points to significant growth in the South. While new business formation has increased across the country, the South has consistently recorded the highest volume of new business openings and has seen the number of credit-active businesses grow 70% since 2018—compared with 55% nationally. Where are small businesses growing the most? The South has consistently had the largest volume of new business openings. The South led application growth during 2020–2021, while the West has posted the strongest growth rates since 2022. That distinction is important because it prevents the SEO headline from overstating what the data shows. Why has small business growth been so strong in the southern U.S.? The South has added more than 3.6 million residents since 2020, substantially outpacing other regions. Our report establishes a correlation rather than causation. Related Posts
Explore Experian insights on U.S. manufacturing investment, AI and automation adoption, employment trends, and commercial credit performance.
Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse analysis examines these trends using retail spending data alongside Experian commercial credit data.
