Small Businesses are showing fiscal discipline and resilience amid changing conditions.
April 2025
- Index Value (Apr):43.2
- Previous Month:47.2
- MoM:-4.0
- YoY:-11.9(Apr 2024 = 55.1)
April marked the first month reflecting the impact of the broad tariffs announced on April 2nd. While the index experienced a decline, the decrease was modest due to the continued resilience of the U.S. economy. Unemployment remained nearly stable at 4.2%, average hourly wages continued to rise, and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages stayed below 7% for the 17th consecutive week. Additionally, the inflation rate increased by just 2.3% in April, the lowest rise since February 2021.
Some metrics showed signs of deterioration, contributing to the drop in the index. The ongoing shifts in tariff policy have created uncertainty among consumers and small business owners. Consumer sentiment fell to 52.2 in April, down from 57.0 in March and 32% lower than a year ago. Small business optimism declined to 95.8 in April, marking the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98. Despite these economic challenges, new businesses continued to form at high rates, with 449,508 new business applications filed in April, nearly matching March’s figures and still well above pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, tariff relief with China brought welcome news to many small businesses still reliant on those imports.
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The September index marks the first increase since April 2026 September 2026 Index Value (Sep): 41.3 Previous Month: 38.2 MoM: +3.1 YoY: +0.2 (Sep 2025 = 41.1) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased by 3.1 points to 41.3 in September, which is on par with September of last year. This marks the first increase in the score since April 2026. Small business and business owner risk showed mixed signals in September. Business owners were able to originate more trades and the utilization on their late delinquency trades fell, both positive signs of improving credit risk. They also had more emerging businesses establishing credit than in the previous month. While owners’ consumer trades had higher 31+ day delinquency rates and a higher 61+ day delinquency rate on revolving trades, those values were nearly identical to this time last year. There were signs of increased risk in small business owners’ commercial trades with increases in both commercial trade utilization and 91+ day delinquency rates. On the macroeconomic side, GDP is strong and unemployment continues to be low. The advanced estimate of annualized GDP for the third quarter was 3.4% and unemployment was up slightly from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September. Inflation continues to be the main challenge in the economy, with headline inflation at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, driven largely by energy costs. While fuel prices decreased slightly over the last month, prices for regular and diesel fuel are up 40% and 73%, respectively, from a year ago. These high costs are challenging for both small businesses and small business owners. New businesses continue to form at a very high rate, with nearly 535K new businesses launched in September, well above the historical average. The improvement in the Experian Small Business Index and the improving risk metrics for small business owners’ consumer trades suggest the lending market remains healthy for small businesses. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined 9 points to 38.2 in August, which is nearly level with last year at this time.
Experian Small Business Index saw rising utilization and 91+ day past-due rates, which contributed to the monthly decline.
