The Experian Small Business Index™ decline driven by relatively soft employment data
Feb 2026
- Index Value (Feb):48.8
- Previous Month:54.3
- MoM:-5.5
- YoY:3.4 (Feb 2025 = 45.4)
The Experian Small Business Index™ decreased by 5.5 points in February to 48.8. Despite the decline, the index remains 3.4 points higher than a year ago and within its historical average range. The decrease occurred during a month of relatively soft employment data. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, and payrolls declined by 92,000 jobs in February, following a gain of 126,000 in January. Wage growth remained strong, partially offsetting these trends. Inflation indicators were mixed: core and rent inflation were flat, while food and energy prices, and the producer price index increased.
Small business formation continued to outperform the historical average, with approximately 496,000 new businesses launched in February, exceeding the seasonally adjusted average of 449,000 since July 2020. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down from 99.3 to 98.8. Credit conditions were generally stable. Commercial credit utilization and delinquencies declined, while consumer loan approvals increased. Factors contributing to the February index decrease included a decline in new consumer trades and a rise in consumer delinquencies among small business owners.
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Incremental increase underscores steady operating environment even as inflation and sentiment present headwinds Mar 2026 Index Value (Mar): 49.2 Previous Month: 48.8 MoM: 0.4 YoY: 2.0 (Mar 2025 = 47.2) The Experian Small Business Index™ remained largely unchanged in March, increasing by 0.4 points to 49.2. This reflects a year-over-year increase of 2 points and indicates relative stability in small business conditions. The broader macroeconomic environment continues to present mixed signals, contributing to recent variability in the index. Conditions appeared more stable in March. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent, and wages continued to rise modestly. Gross domestic product increased by 2 percent in the first quarter and has been positive in most quarters over the past two years. Private employers added approximately 62,000 jobs in March. U.S. employers also reported 32,826 planned hires, which is an increase from 12,755 reported in February. Inflation increased to 3.3 percent in March, up from 2.4 percent in February, driven in part by higher fuel prices. Gasoline prices rose by approximately $1.00 from the end of February through the end of March, reaching an average of about $4.00 per gallon. This represents a month over month increase of 36 percent. Diesel prices rose by 46 percent compared to the prior month and are up 52 percent year over year. Consumer sentiment declined to 53.3 in March from 56.6 in February. The Small Business Optimism Index also decreased slightly to 98.8. Retail sales remained stable to slightly higher, suggesting that increased fuel costs and lower sentiment have not yet led to a significant reduction in consumer spending. New business formation remained strong, with approximately 492,000 new businesses established in March. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ increased 8.5 points to 54.3 in January. This is 12.8 points higher than it was a year ago.
The Experian Small Business Index™ decreased 6.2 points to 45.8 on higher delinquency and rising balances as interest rates stay unchanged.
