The Experian Small Business Index™ decline driven by relatively soft employment data
Feb 2026
- Index Value (Feb):48.8
- Previous Month:54.3
- MoM:-5.5
- YoY:3.4 (Feb 2025 = 45.4)
The Experian Small Business Index™ decreased by 5.5 points in February to 48.8. Despite the decline, the index remains 3.4 points higher than a year ago and within its historical average range. The decrease occurred during a month of relatively soft employment data. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, and payrolls declined by 92,000 jobs in February, following a gain of 126,000 in January. Wage growth remained strong, partially offsetting these trends. Inflation indicators were mixed: core and rent inflation were flat, while food and energy prices, and the producer price index increased.
Small business formation continued to outperform the historical average, with approximately 496,000 new businesses launched in February, exceeding the seasonally adjusted average of 449,000 since July 2020. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down from 99.3 to 98.8. Credit conditions were generally stable. Commercial credit utilization and delinquencies declined, while consumer loan approvals increased. Factors contributing to the February index decrease included a decline in new consumer trades and a rise in consumer delinquencies among small business owners.
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Small businesses navigated headwinds in May as uncertainty began to rise May 2026 Index Value (Mar): 51.2 Previous Month: 52.2 MoM: -1.0 YoY: +6.0 (May 2025 = 57.2) The Experian Small Business Index™ decreased slightly, falling 1 point to 51.2 in May, but remained 6 points higher than a year ago. Several credit risk factors supported the index in May. Past-due balances on business owners’ consumer accounts declined, as did later-stage delinquencies on their commercial accounts. However, several factors weighed on the index. Commercial credit utilization increased, and there was a sharp rise in consumer public records filings. While public records are typically a lagging indicator, this trend warrants monitoring in the coming months. In the broader economy, the unemployment rate declined to 4.2% from 4.3%, and GDP grew by 2.1%, exceeding expectations. Several measures of inflation also increased in May. Headline inflation rose from 3.8% in April to 4.2%, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased from 2.8% to 2.9%. Energy prices were 23.5% higher than a year earlier and likely contributed to broader inflationary pressures. Food prices declined 0.1%, while rent increased 0.1%. Business formation remained strong, with 524,000 new business applications filed in May, up from 505,000 in April. This occurred despite the NFIB Uncertainty Index increasing to 91. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down to 95.3 in May from 95.9 in April. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
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